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NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

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Value becomes tougher to come by in the futures market as playoff pictures and award winners start to become more clear. Still, I have a few plays this week that I think will hold value when the season comes to a close.

The first bet is a play on the Steelers, who have been outgained by their opponent in every single game and have a scoring differential of -26, to miss the playoffs. The second bet is a play on the Falcons to win the NFC South, as they currently only trail the division-leading Saints by one game with a favorable remaining schedule. The last play is a long shot on C.J. Stroud to win the MVP. We currently lack a clear runaway favorite, and Stroud is gaining notoriety with his stellar performances.

Let’s get more in-depth with my best future bets to make in Week 11 of the NFL season:

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NFL Week 11: Best Futures Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers To Miss the Playoffs (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Steelers sit at 6-3, trailing Baltimore by just half a game for the AFC North lead. This is despite failing to outgain any single opponent this year. You read that right; the Steelers have been outgained in all of their nine contests this season against offenses that include the Raiders, Packers and Titans. Their offense is among the worst in the league, ranking in the bottom six in points and yards per possession, percentage of drives that end in a score, first-downs gained, net yards per pass attempt and time of possession.

Along those lines, Pittsburgh has a scoring differential of -26, the lowest of any team with a winning record. While that might speak to the coaching and organizational fortitude of the team, I see it as a sign of being extremely lucky and unlikely to continue, resulting in wins.

Six of Pittsburgh’s nine games have been played at home so far, meaning they will be on the road five times down the stretch, with some very tough matchups at Cleveland, Cincinnati, Seattle and Baltimore. The AFC playoff race offers no room for error. I don’t see the Steelers being able to win the requisite amount of games to qualify for a playoff spot, especially with teams right behind them in the Texans, Bengals, Bills and Chargers that have much higher potential on the offensive side of the ball.

Atlanta Falcons To Win the NFC South (+260 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Despite dropping three consecutive games against the likes of the Titans, Vikings and Cardinals (all of which had a starting QB that hadn’t played a game for that team previously in 2023), the Falcons trail the Saints for the division lead by only one game.

Both teams are on a bye this week, with a crucial matchup in Atlanta following the week off. A Falcons win would put them at 3-0 in the division (with wins against every other team), in the driver’s seat and set to control their own destiny down the stretch with no games remaining against teams that are currently above the 0.500 mark.

This bye comes at the perfect time for Atlanta to pump the brakes on their losing streak, allowing them to figure out their plan at QB and assimilate more of their high-profile offensive weapons into their game plan. Tampa Bay is also in the race, though their schedule contains much tougher games against the 49ers and Jaguars. Plus, they already have a home loss to Atlanta on their résume. Someone has to win this division. Although Atlanta has been leaking oil in recent weeks, their divisional record and the way their schedule breaks down the stretch gives them a decent shot to do it, and I’ll bite at this price.

C.J. Stroud To Win NFL MVP (+2500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

It’s taken C.J. Stroud only half an NFL season to dramatically change the Texans’ future outlook, pulling them up from the bootstraps as the NFL’s second-worst team in 2022 to a legitimate playoff contender in his rookie season.

Stroud is second in the NFL in total passing yards and leads the league in passing yards per game at 291.8. He ranks third in yards per pass attempt, second in yards per completion and just outside the top-five with a passer rating of 101. He has the lowest interception rate in the NFL at just 0.6%, and he doesn’t hurt his team by taking bad sacks, with a top-10 sack rate of just over 5%. He has also been clutch, orchestrating two game-winning drives (would be three if their defense held on at Atlanta) in their previous two games. He’s done all of this without insane star-power at their skilled positions either, turning Tank Dell into a rookie star and getting insane production from Nico Collins and veteran receivers Noah Brown and Robert Woods.

In a year that lacks a runaway MVP favorite this far into the season, I think this is a great price to sprinkle on the rookie phenom, especially if he leads the Texans to a divisional title or Wild Card playoff berth.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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