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NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week was a chaotic one in the NFL.

The Cleveland Browns upset the Baltimore Ravens. Houston outlasted Cincinnati. The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers combined for 79 points, and Indianapolis and New England combined for just 16 in Germany.

Here are the best long-shot bets of Week 11 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 11 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tommy DeVito 225+ Passing Yards (+650)

Tommy DeVito will not be a starting quarterback for much longer. His numbers are terrible, and the New York Giants are hopeful that Tyrod Taylor will be back soon. Last week, Devito completed 14 passes for 86 yards. While he did manage two touchdown passes, his first one didn’t come until his team was down 28-0.

Yet, this week, he has an opportunity to put together his first solid game as a professional. The Washington Commanders have the fourth-worst pass defense in all of football. Over the last three games, they’re allowing 301.3 passing yards per contest. After trading away both Chase Young and Montez Sweat, the Commanders’ defensive line is significantly worse than it was when these two teams met the first time. That means more time for DeVito to throw the ball.

We firmly believe the Commanders will win this game by double-digits. However, their secondary is weak enough that once the Commanders build a considerable lead, DeVito will shock everyone and throw for nearly 250 yards.

San Francisco 49ers -27.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+560)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a dominant 20-6 victory over the Tennessee Titans. The win ended a four-game losing streak. Though the Bucs were losing games, three of their losses were by six points or fewer. We don’t expect the Bucs to play in such a close game Sunday.

The 49ers are fresh off a 31-point victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The performance ended a frustrating three-game losing streak for the 49ers. With the players they added before the trade deadline and all the injuries that were able to subside during the bye week, the 49ers look like one of the best teams in football again.

This season, the 49ers have scored 30 or more points in all six of their wins. In their last two wins, their average margin of victory is 31.5. The Buccaneers haven’t played many good teams this season, but when they have, they’ve struggled. The 49ers won’t stop pouring it on if they’re up big late, and Tampa Bay will struggle to score a single touchdown in this game.

Josh Allen 3.0+ Interceptions (+1025)

Josh Allen leads the NFL in interceptions and has thrown at least one in six consecutive games. Though the Bills fired their offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, after Monday night’s loss to the Denver Broncos, we still think Allen will struggle this week.

When the Bills faced the New York Jets in Week 1, Allen threw three interceptions. It was the fourth time he’d thrown two or more interceptions against the Jets in his career. 

The odds for this are astronomical, and they should be. Yet, Allen has struggled to take care of the football, and he’s making some horrible throws. While prior opponents may not have been able to take full advantage of his mistakes, the Jets have one of the best secondaries in football. They’re averaging one interception per game, so Allen to throw one pick feels like a lock. For this price, it’s worth backing the Jets to really frustrate their division rival.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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