NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Browns
First team to double digits wins? The Cleveland Browns will be without Deshaun Watson for the rest of the year, and the team has surprisingly turned to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson to make his second career start at home. The line has since flipped to Pittsburgh favored by a point in most shops, while the total has dropped a few points down to 33. I don’t think we have to overthink this one. Two divisional rivals with top-10 defenses in EPA are doing battle against two offenses that have struggled all year. My hunch is the Browns go with a very conservative gameplan in an effort to protect DTR from a Steelers pass rush that could tee off on Cleveland’s banged up offensive line. On the flip side, I’m confident Jim Schwartz will have this defense ready to make life difficult on Pickett all day. Keep in mind, there’s revenge at stake here too, as Pittsburgh defeated Cleveland early in the year thanks to a couple of terrible mistakes by Watson. If I had to make a pick against the spread, I would take the Browns as home dogs and trust that Cleveland’s defense shows out as the best unit in the game. But I also don’t mind a play on the under, as this game has 16-13 written all over it.
Pick: Cleveland +1 / Under 33.5
-Matt Barbato
Bears vs. Lions
Justin Fields is expected back at QB for the Bears in a NFC North division matchup. Fields missed the last four games in which the Bears actually managed to go 2-2 SU, however the offense wasn’t really any better. Regardless of how healthy Fields’ hand is, his legs should be fresh. Containing mobile quarterbacks is something the Lions have struggled with all year. Fields is more than capable to moving the ball on the ground if the Detroit pass rush struggles to get their hands on him like they struggled last week. On the other side of the ball, the Lions have managed to control the clock with a dominant two-headed run game. Chicago ranks sixth in run defense DVOA which could make things difficult for Detroit to control the game late, making the back door cover wide open. The Lions should win this and maybe even comfortably as the Bears will struggle to slow down the Detroit pass offense, but the ability from Fields and the run defense will give Chicago the upper hand when covering this large spread.
Pick: Bears +8 (-113)
-Ryan Rodeman
Chargers vs. Packers
Even at 4-5, The Chargers are still in contention as the AFC is filled with parity. The injury report is filled with offensive players as usual; they get Joshua Palmer back, but now Keenan Allen is questionable, and Gerald Everett is out. The defense hasn’t been much help, as they’re 26th in points allowed. The Packers have dropped five of the last six, and that only win was against a Matthew Stafford-less Rams. The first year of Jordan Love as the starter is not going well, as he’s 26th in passer rating and has the second-most interceptions. It also doesn’t help that the run game is also awful, with AJ Dillion and Aaron Jones rushing for 3.7 yards per carry. The Chargers have played some sub-par offenses, and their defense has done well against them. This is another opportunity for the defense to shut down a below-average offense with their pushes to a win.
Pick: Chargers -3
-John Supowitz
Raiders vs. Dolphins
Since firing Josh McDaniels, the Raiders have managed to go 2-0 SU. The defense has really excelled but it was against two of the worst quarterback situations in the league in the Giants and Jets. Previous games before saw them give up 486 yards to the Lions and 30 points the week before to Chicago. Now they go up against one of the top offenses in the league. Miami likely welcomes back star rookie RB De’Von Achane. If he’s fully healthy he should have a field day against the 27th-ranked DVOA run defense. It’s not like the Las Vegas pass defense is any better. The Raiders truly will have no answers for this Miami offense. It’s been a nice story with how they’ve rallied behind the interim head coach, but it’ll end here with a big win my Miami.
Pick: Dolphins -12.5 (-115)
-Ryan Rodeman
Giants vs. Commanders
The last game between the Giants and Commanders wasn’t the most entertaining, as this game ended with the Giants winning 14-7. New York had a backup quarterback in that game and again for this one, but Tommy DeVito has not been since becoming the Giants quarterback, and he has just an 11.8 QBR. The Commanders haven’t been playing much better, dropping three of the last four. The bright spot looks to be Sam Howell, as Washington is letting him sling it, and he has the most pass attempts and passing yards in the league. They traded away some of their best defensive players, but they’ve struggled throughout the season allowing the second-most points. The Giants look lost at the moment, but 8.5 is still too large of spread against the Commanders. We saw no offense in the last game and that should happen again.
Pick: Under 37.5
-John Supowitz
Cowboys vs. Panthers
The Dallas Cowboys just destroyed the New York Giants, 49-17. Now they’ll play a worse team in the Carolina Panthers this weekend. The outcome will likely be the same. The Carolina run defense is below average, and the secondary hasn’t played very well either. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are rolling on offense and should put together a balanced attack that beats Carolina almost every drive. Plus, Carolina’s pass protection with its offensive line isn’t good. Dallas has won one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. That should ultimately force Bryce Young into some bad mistakes and poor throws. Let’s back the Cowboys at -10.5.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5
-Jason Radowitz
Titans vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars are incredibly tough to read. Some weeks, they look like a legit contender in the AFC. Others, like last week against San Francisco, they look completely lost. If there was ever a get-right spot, it would be against these Tennessee Titans, who have issues both protecting the passer and defending the pass. Tennessee’s given up the fourth-most sacks in the league, as Will Levis has been clobbered in his first few professional starts. Defensively, Tennessee has a pressure rate of just 19% and ranks 28th in EPA pass defense. That all being said, Mike Vrabel has given the Jaguars fits in past meetings with even worse situations. The Titans are 7-3 straight up against the Jaguars under Vrabel, and the Titans are 17-14-1 ATS against the AFC South under Vrabel. It’s hard to trust either of these teams, and the line seems about right here. Coming off a brutal defeat at home, I suspect the Jaguars get right against a Titans team that just doesn’t match up well with them. Keep in mind, I wouldn’t take this above -7, and there was a -6.5 still available at Bet MGM as of Friday morning.
Pick: Jaguars -7
-Matt Barbato
Cardinals vs. Texans
The Texans continue to surge after winning three of the last four games. C.J. Stroud is the real deal, as he’s thrown for 836 yards and six touchdowns in the last two. Last week’s star receiver Noah Brown, is out with an injury, but thankfully, they should see the return of Nico Collins. Don’t look at the Cardinals from weeks prior, with Kyler Murray back in the lineup, it’s a whole different team. They got the win against the Falcons, and they did really well pushing the ball with 352 total yards. Houston is 21st in total yards and 16th in points allowed, so look for Arizona to do well on offense. This is also a great matchup for the Texans, with the Cardinals 28th in points allowed.
Pick: Over 48
-John Supowitz
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
The bye week was the best thing to happen for the 49ers. San Francisco dropped three games before the bye week. But after some rest, the Niners earned a 31-point win over the Jaguars last weekend. The 49ers are back to looking like the NFL’s best team. Meanwhile, they’re facing a Tampa Bay offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games. San Francisco’s pass defense is extraordinary, which will leave the Buccaneers attempting to run the ball more early on. They’ve had little success on the ground with Rachaad White throughout the entire year. Look for Christian McCaffrey to start a new touchdown streak in an easy win for the Niners at home.
Pick: 49ers -11.5
-Jason Radowitz
Jets vs. Bills
Is this the week the Jets fold? It’s certainly possible after losing entirely winnable games against the Chargers and Raiders. The Jets had a players meeting earlier this week, and coach Robert Saleh has promised personnel changes. But the Jets refuse to change the offense’s biggest problem: Zach Wilson, who might be the worst quarterback ever to play professional football. New York’s saving grace is a defense that’s given Josh Allen fits throughout his career. But the Bills also changed their offense, firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, a move I was suggesting earlier in the season. One of Dorsey’s biggest flaws was his refusal to commit to a running game, despite Buffalo ranking 2nd in the league in rushing EPA! I think that changes this week, and it’s a good time for it, as New York ranks 16th defensively in rushing EPA and struggled to slow down Josh Jacobs last week. Allen is an awesome QB, but clearly Buffalo is putting too much on his shoulders. I expect Buffalo to ride its running game and get up early. And while I don’t trust Buffalo’s defense any longer due to all of its injuries, those losses won’t matter as much against a hapless Jets offense. Lay it with the Bills, and use Buffalo in your six-point teasers.
Pick: Bills -7
-Matt Barbato
Seahawks vs. Rams
With Matthew Stafford back in the starting lineup, the Rams are getting more of the bets. But even with Stafford, the Rams have a losing record this year. He’s thrown eight touchdowns but seven interceptions on the year. Stafford has always had an interception problem. Now he’s going up against a very good pass defense. On the other hand, Los Angeles has one of the worst secondaries in football. While the Seahawks haven’t had the best offense this year, playmakers like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could step up as long as the Seattle offensive line holds up. This game is where Geno Smith can prove that he’s still a top-15 quarterback in a rivalry game. Give me the Seahawks at -1.
Pick: Seahawks -1
-Jason Radowitz
Vikings vs. Broncos
Earlier in the season, the Vikings were written off, then again when Kirk Cousins was done for the year, but that’s not happening anymore. Josh Dobbs is having a breakout season, and since coming over to the Vikings, he’s won back-to-back games, thrown for 326 yards, three passing touchdowns, and two rushing. The Broncos are AFC version of the Vikings, another team that was written off earlier in the year and has suddenly emerged. The defense that gave up 70 points in a game allows 11.2 points per game over their last five, and while Russell Wilson doesn’t have the arm he once did, he’s still smart with the ball and has just four interceptions on the year. This could turn into one of the more interesting games on the schedule, but at home and with the better defensive matchup, Denver will get it done.
Pick: Broncos -2
-John Supowitz
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