NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2024)
There are a lot of close matchups on the slate for Week 11, but perhaps no game is bigger than the meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points despite the Chiefs being undefeated. Who will come out on top in that game? Find out below, as I pick a winner for that contest and three other games with point spreads under a field goal.
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NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Predictions
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints
Though this game isn't likely to have many interested viewers outside of Cleveland and New Orleans, the spread for the contest is the smallest of the week. The Saints ended a seven-game skid last week with a 20-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Browns had their bye week after losing 27-10 to the Los Angeles Chargers.
This game is really hard to pick because neither of these teams does anything particularly well. However, with Derek Carr under center, the Saints seem to have an advantage. As expected, Jameis Winston has been streaky since taking over as the quarterback for the Browns. In Week 8, he threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 9, he threw three interceptions.
The Saints are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to intercepting opposing quarterbacks. They're averaging 1.2 per game, which could prove to be problematic for Winston. Carr hasn't thrown an interception since returning from injury. The Saints win the turnover battle and the game.
Pick: Saints
Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos
How will the Broncos rebound after a heartbreaking defeat against the Chiefs last week? Thanks to a blocked field goal as time expired, the Broncos are now just 5-5 and have lost back-to-back games to two of the best teams in the AFC.
This week, the Broncos have to face the NFC South-leading Falcons. The Falcons are coming off an ugly loss to the Saints, in which they totaled 468 yards but couldn't manage to score many points.
The Falcons have the fifth-best passing offense in the league. While that's a positive, it's the reason they're going to lose this game. They rely heavily on Kirk Cousins and his receivers with 67% of their yards coming through the air. The Broncos have the 10th-best pass defense in football, and that's despite facing Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back weeks.
Pick: Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
After a miraculous blocked field goal as time expired, the Chiefs are now 9-0 with a point differential of just 58. To put that in perspective, that's the ninth-best point differential in the league, and it's 55 points behind the league-leading Detroit Lions. Will this be the week the Chiefs' luck finally changes? I think so.
The Bills have rattled off five consecutive wins, with three of those victories coming by 10+ points. They rank third in the league in points per game. They're allowing fewer than 20 points per game this season. There's a recent history between these two teams that suggests the Chiefs would win, but even with the Chiefs undefeated this season, the Bills have been the better team of late.
If there's one thing for Bills fans to be concerned about it's Josh Allen's turnover troubles. After throwing zero interceptions through the first seven games of the season, he's thrown four in the last three weeks. The Chiefs are tied for 19th in interceptions this season, though they don't have a single interception over the last three weeks. Even if they do intercept Allen, the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs right now.
Pick: Bills
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The sixth-highest-scoring offense in football takes on the top-scoring defense in the league, as two playoff-hopeful teams battle on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers are allowing just 13.1 points per game this season, and they've held all of their opponents to 20 or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Bengals have scored 34+ points in back-to-back weeks, and their defense is allowing 26.2 points per game.
This game will come down to which team can better impose their will. My gut tells me that will be the Chargers. The Chargers have been dominant defensively no matter who they've played this season. On the other hand, the Bengals have played up and down to their competition. Against weak defenses, they score at will, but against better ones, they struggle, as shown by their low-scoring performances against the New England Patriots and New York Giants.
The Bengals desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, the Chargers are the better team right now. Their defense will stifle Joe Burrow and help them secure their seventh victory.
Pick: Chargers
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.