NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Falcons (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Below, let’s take a closer look at Bears vs. Falcons.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 10 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-9 (-1.86 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 69-58-2 (+5.35 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 25-20
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Bears vs. Falcons
Check out our Bears at Falcons matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: FOX
Bears at Falcons: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.
- Spread: Falcons -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Bears – 43% bets, 76% money
Bears at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Bears ATS: 4-6 (-23.9% ROI)
- Falcons ATS: 6-4 (14.7% ROI)
Bears at Falcons: Notable Trend
- HC Arthur Smith: 3-9 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) at home
Bears at Falcons: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.083 | 28 | 15 |
| Total SR | 42.6% | 20 | 49.4% | 32 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | -4.9% | 20 | 12.5% | 30 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.015 | 18 | 0.123 | 27 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 43.2% | 27 | 51.6% | 30 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.3% | 26 | 20.5% | 29 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 13.8% | 32 | 4.4% | 31 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.020 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 42.0% | 16 | 46.1% | 28 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.6% | 9 | 1.7% | 25 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.56 | 14 | 4.87 | 28 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 13 | 6 | 31 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 21.7 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 7 |
Falcons Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.098 | 29 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 47.5% | 28 | 18 |
| Total DVOA | 5.8% | 11 | 12.0% | 29 | 18 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.053 | 16 | 0.205 | 30 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 9 | 51.1% | 28 | 19 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.9% | 14 | 21.4% | 30 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.2% | 30 | 5.8% | 24 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 8 | -0.028 | 22 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 8 | 43.4% | 22 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 8 | 2.1% | 26 | 18 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.79 | 3 | 4.52 | 19 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 16 | 5.8 | 23 | 7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.7 | 25 | 13 |
Bears at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.063 | 20 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 18 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 14 |
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -47.8
2022: Marcus Mariota
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 10 |
| QBR | 59.2 | 9 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.9 | 27 |
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -14.3
Key Matchup: Bears QB Justin Fields vs. Falcons Linebackers & Cornerbacks
The Falcons are yet to face a true dual-threat quarterback this year, but that’s what they get this week in Fields, who is developing into a Lamar Jackson-esque force.
Fantasy football isn’t the same as sports betting, but as a frame of reference: Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1).
Check out my Week 11 fantasy points leaderboard.
Ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report), Fields has a massive edge against LBs Rashaan Evans and Mykal Walker, off-ball thumpers who lack the speed to catch Fields if he breaks out of the pocket.
The Bears have a top-10 rush offense — thanks primarily to Fields — and the Falcons are bottom-10 in run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.02 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.026 | 9 | 0.017 | 25 | 16 |
And Fields is no longer a net negative in the passing game. He struggled last year (5.8 AY/A), and in Weeks 1-3 he did little and looked awful doing it (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), but since Week 4 he has been a serviceable passer (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A).
The Falcons have been without No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) ever since he exited Week 7 early, and even if he returns to action this week he likely will play with physical limitations. As for No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR), he doesn’t seem close to returning.
The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%). Even with Terrell, they would be vulnerable.
I expect Fields to be able to do just enough against the corners and whatever he wants against the linebackers, and that should be enough to get the Bears the cover.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Bears +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +0.75
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