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NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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This is the week we get back on track, friends. I feel it in my bones. (Or maybe that’s just the autumn chill.)

Let’s get right to this week’s selections.

But first, a quick recap of Week 10 …

The wins: Joshua Kelley under 20.5 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker under 64.5 rushing yards, Mike Gesicki over 20.5 receiving yards, Christian McCaffrey over 31.5 receiving yards, CeeDee Lamb over 77.5 receiving yards

The losses: Justin Herbert under 260.5 passing yards, Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards, Taysom Hill over 23.5 rushing yards, James Cook under 55.5 rushing yards, DeAndre Hopkins over 61.5 receiving yards, Drake London over 46.5 receiving yards.

  • Last week: 5-6
  • Season record: 45-51

Here are my favorite selections for Week 11 …

NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.

Sam Howell OVER 245.5 passing yards

In fantasy football, making lineup decisions based on assumptions about game flow — assuming, for example, that a team favored to win by 8 or 9 points will win in a blowout — is usually a mistake. It feels like this number for Howell is based on the assumption that the Commanders will coast in their Week 11 game against the Giants and take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. Howell is averaging 268.4 passing yards per game this season. He leads the league in pass attempts, averaging 39.7 a game. Howell has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of his last three outings, and he’s cleared this total in 7-of-10 games this season. The Giants are giving up 7.3 yards per pass attempt — the fourth-highest total in the league — and rank 26th in DVOA against the pass.

Joshua Dobbs UNDER 229.5 passing yards

Dobbs-mania is fun, but this total seems too high, even if the Vikings get star WR Justin Jefferson back from a hamstring injury. Dobbs threw for a season-high 268 yards last week against the Saints, but he’s failed to clear this total in six of his other eight starts. He’s averaging just 6.0 yards per pass attempt this season — an extremely low number. Dobbs faces a Denver pass defense that has struggled at times this season, but the Broncos just held Buffalo’s Josh Allen to 177 passing yards, and they held Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes to 240 passing yards in the game before that. With their run-funnel defense, the Broncos have faced only 32.1 pass attempts per game this season.

David Montgomery OVER 49.5 rushing yards

Yes, Montgomery had only 12 carries last week in his first game back from a rib injury and played 13 fewer snaps than rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs. And yes, Montgomery will be facing a stiff Bears run defense that has allowed 59.3 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry to running backs this season. But Montgomery has cleared this total in 5-of-6 games this season, averaging 83.5 rushing yards per contest. When the Lions get a lead, they like to put the ball in Monty’s hands to salt the game away, and the Lions are 8-point home favorites against the Bears in this one. And let’s not forget that Montgomery spent his first four NFL seasons with the Bears, so he’ll have some extra motivation for this one.

Josh Jacobs OVER 62.5 rushing yards

In the two games the Raiders have played since Josh McDaniels was fired as head coach and replaced by Antonio Pierce, Jacobs has had 53 carries for 214 yards. The Raiders are starting rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, so it’s a good bet they’ll lean heavily on the running game once again. That’s also their best chance to minimize the amount of time that Tua Tagovailoa and the potent Dolphins offense spends on the field Sunday afternoon in Miami. The Dolphins’ run defense ranks 26th in DVOA.

Darrell Henderson UNDER 39.5 rushing yards

With starting RB Kyren Williams on injured reserve, Henderson has been splitting snaps and carries with Royce Freeman in recent weeks. Over his last two games, Henderson has 22 carries for 50 yards, which works out to 2.3 yards per carry. In his most recent game, Henderson faced the perennially soft Green Bay run defense and had 10 carries for 19 yards. This week, Henderson goes up against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards to running backs.

Adam Thielen OVER 59.5 receiving yards

Panthers head coach Frank Reich announced this week that he will resuming the offensive play-calling duties — a change that bodes well for Thielen. With Reich calling plays in Weeks 1-6, Thielen averaged 84.8 receiving yards per game. With offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays for the Panthers in their last three games, Thielen averaged 47.7 receiving yards. My friend Dave Kluge of Footballguys noted that with Reich calling the plays, Thielen’s average depth of target was 7.8 yards, and with Brown calling the plays, Thielen’s average depth of target dropped to 4.2 yards. Dallas is a tough defensive matchup, but Thielen has had seven or more catches in six of his last seven games.

CeeDee Lamb OVER 83.5 receiving yards

The Cowboys are making a concerted effort to get Lamb the ball, and why should they change that when things are going so swimmingly? Lamb has topped 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games, averaging 10.3 catches and 154.3 yards per contest during that stretch. His target totals in his last three games: 14, 16, 14. Keep riding the hot hand and take Lamb to smash this total vs. the Panthers.

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards

Quickly establishing himself as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league, Gibbs has 35 or more receiving yards in each of his last three games, averaging 5.7 catches and 43.3 receiving yards over that stretch. Gibbs has drawn at least five targets in each of his last four games. This week, he’ll be facing a Bears defense that has given up a league-high 615 receiving yards to running backs.

David Njoku under 31.5 receiving yards

With Deshaun Watson out for the season with a shoulder injury, the Browns will start fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback this week. When he was forced to start in place of the injured Watson in Week 4, Thompson-Robinson threw for 121 yards and averaged 3.4 yards per attempt. Njoku was Cleveland’s most productive pass catcher that day, with six receptions for 46 yards. But the Browns’ passing game seems destined to sputter this week with a rookie backup at the helm, and Njoku will be facing a Pittsburgh defense that’s giving up just 4.0 receptions and 42.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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