NFL Week 11 Player Prop Cheat Sheet Best Bets (2022)
The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet is an invaluable tool to help guide your player prop wagering. Here are some bets the cheat sheet likes this week and that I like enough to bet on myself.
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Baker Mayfield Over 168.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Let's start off in Baltimore, where the Ravens face the Carolina Panthers. It was recently announced that Baker Mayfield will receive the start against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore does not fare well against the pass, ranking 28th in the NFL, allowing an average of 258.5 passing yards per game. Additionally, Mayfield has never thrown for less than 189 passing yards in his eight games against the Ravens. In fact, Mayfield averaged an impressive 277.6 passing yards per game against Baltimore and 353.3 in his last three games. Furthermore, the BettingPros cheat sheet projects Mayfield to finish 24.3 yards higher than his current line. I will be backing the numbers and taking the over on Mayfield's passing yards.
Jalen Hurts Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Moving on to the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts in Indianapolis. Philly and Indy have been a tale of two cities this season. The Eagles have vastly outperformed expectations, while the Colts have done the exact opposite. Nevertheless, the Colts rank 7th in the NFL in passing defense allowing just 196.3 passing yards per game. As an already-run-heavy team and near-touchdown favorites, the Eagles will likely have control of the game through the ground. This will decrease the number of passing opportunities for Jalen Hurts as a result. Furthermore, the cheat sheet projects Hurts to record just 219.5 passing yards, which is a 19-yard difference from his current line. As a result, I would bet the under on Jalen Hurts' passing yards prop.
Devonta Smith Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Staying in Indianapolis, a receiving prop also catches my eye. Similar to the same reasoning above, Devonta Smith should also see a decrease in receiving opportunities. In nine total games this season, Smith has recorded more than 60 receiving yards in just three of them (33%). Furthermore, Smith has failed to reach even 45 receiving yards in his last four games. The BettingPros cheat sheet also shares a bleak outlook on Smith's receiving projections with a -9.8 yard difference from the current line. Much like the Jalen Hurts bet, I will be betting the under on Devonta Smith's receiving yards prop.
Davante Adams Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Finally, let's look at Denver, where the Broncos take on the Las Vegas Raiders. While disappointing as a whole, the Broncos’ pass defense has performed very well this season. Denver ranks first in the NFL, allowing just 174.4 passing yards per game. Furthermore, the Broncos have allowed just 112.6 receiving yards to the wide receiver position specifically, which is also 1st in the league. Additionally, Davante Adams is listed as questionable with an abdomen injury heading into Sunday's game. If Adams suits up, I expect this injury, coupled with the Broncos’ elite pass defense, to be enough to slow him down. On top of this, the BettingPros cheat sheet projects Adams to finish with -5.3 receiving yards less than his current line. All of this makes Adams under 77.5 receiving yards my favorite bet of the day.
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