Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 11 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Week 10 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-9 (-1.86 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 69-58-2 (+5.35 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 25-20
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman's Week 11 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 16, at 5 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| GB | TEN | -3 | -3.75 | -0.75 |
| BAL | CAR | -13 | -13.5 | -0.5 |
| ATL | CHI | -3.5 | -0.75 | 2.75 |
| BUF | CLE | -8 | -10.25 | -2.25 |
| NE | NYJ | -3 | -4 | -1 |
| HOU | WAS | 3.5 | 2.25 | -1.25 |
| IND | PHI | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| NYG | DET | -3 | -1.25 | 1.75 |
| NO | LAR | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| DEN | LV | -2.5 | -1.25 | 1.25 |
| MIN | DAL | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| PIT | CIN | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| LAC | KC | 6 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| ARI | SF | 8 | 6.75 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.
- Bears +3.5 at Falcons
- Patriots -3 vs. Jets
- Lions +3 at Giants
- Bengals -4 at Steelers
Freedman's Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Check out our Bears at Falcons matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: FOX
Bears at Falcons: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.
- Spread: Falcons -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Bears - 43% bets, 76% money
Bears at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Bears ATS: 4-6 (-23.9% ROI)
- Falcons ATS: 6-4 (14.7% ROI)
Bears at Falcons: Notable Trend
- HC Arthur Smith: 3-9 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) at home
Bears at Falcons: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.083 | 28 | 15 |
| Total SR | 42.6% | 20 | 49.4% | 32 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | -4.9% | 20 | 12.5% | 30 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.015 | 18 | 0.123 | 27 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 43.2% | 27 | 51.6% | 30 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.3% | 26 | 20.5% | 29 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 13.8% | 32 | 4.4% | 31 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.020 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 42.0% | 16 | 46.1% | 28 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.6% | 9 | 1.7% | 25 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.56 | 14 | 4.87 | 28 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 13 | 6 | 31 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 21.7 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 7 |
Falcons Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.098 | 29 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 47.5% | 28 | 18 |
| Total DVOA | 5.8% | 11 | 12.0% | 29 | 18 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.053 | 16 | 0.205 | 30 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 9 | 51.1% | 28 | 19 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.9% | 14 | 21.4% | 30 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.2% | 30 | 5.8% | 24 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 8 | -0.028 | 22 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 8 | 43.4% | 22 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 8 | 2.1% | 26 | 18 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.79 | 3 | 4.52 | 19 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 16 | 5.8 | 23 | 7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.7 | 25 | 13 |
Bears at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.063 | 20 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 18 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 14 |
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -47.8
2022: Marcus Mariota
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 10 |
| QBR | 59.2 | 9 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.9 | 27 |
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -14.3
Key Matchup: Bears QB Justin Fields vs. Falcons Linebackers & Cornerbacks
The Falcons are yet to face a true dual-threat quarterback this year, but that’s what they get this week in Fields, who is developing into a Lamar Jackson-esque force.
Fantasy football isn’t the same as sports betting, but as a frame of reference: Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1).
Check out my Week 11 fantasy points leaderboard.
Ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report), Fields has a massive edge against LBs Rashaan Evans and Mykal Walker, off-ball thumpers who lack the speed to catch Fields if he breaks out of the pocket.
The Bears have a top-10 rush offense — thanks primarily to Fields — and the Falcons are bottom-10 in run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.02 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.026 | 9 | 0.017 | 25 | 16 |
And Fields is no longer a net negative in the passing game. He struggled last year (5.8 AY/A), and in Weeks 1-3 he did little and looked awful doing it (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), but since Week 4 he has been a serviceable passer (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A).
The Falcons have been without No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) ever since he exited Week 7 early, and even if he returns to action this week he likely will play with physical limitations. As for No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR), he doesn’t seem close to returning.
The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%). Even with Terrell, they would be vulnerable.
I expect Fields to be able to do just enough against the corners and whatever he wants against the linebackers, and that should be enough to get the Bears the cover.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Bears +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +0.75
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Check out our Jets at Patriots matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jets at Patriots: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.
- Spread: Patriots -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Patriots - 56% bets, 73% money
Jets at Patriots: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Jets ATS: 6-3 (27.5% ROI)
- Patriots ATS: 5-3-1 (17.1% ROI)
Jets at Patriots: Notable Trend
- Patriots HC Bill Belichick: 3-0 ATS (117.3% ROI) vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson
Jets at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.04 | 23 | -0.116 | 1 | -22 |
| Total SR | 41.1% | 27 | 41.2% | 5 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -1.0% | 19 | -15.9% | 3 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.064 | 27 | -0.153 | 1 | -26 |
| Dropback SR | 42.3% | 28 | 39.6% | 1 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.3% | 18 | -25.6% | 2 | -16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 12 | 9.5% | 3 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.001 | 7 | -0.057 | 17 | 10 |
| Rush SR | 38.9% | 25 | 43.8% | 24 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 1.0% | 12 | -2.5% | 21 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 19 | 4.61 | 22 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.2 | 8 | -11 |
| Points per Game | 21.8 | 19 | 18.4 | 6 | -13 |
Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.047 | 25 | -0.045 | 7 | -18 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 21 | 43.6% | 14 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -13.5% | 26 | -11.2% | 6 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.042 | 25 | -0.034 | 7 | -18 |
| Dropback SR | 44.7% | 22 | 43.5% | 5 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.0% | 28 | -12.3% | 6 | -22 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.9% | 26 | 8.0% | 12 | -14 |
| Rush EPA | -0.054 | 18 | -0.061 | 15 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 43.9% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.0% | 22 | -9.8% | 10 | -12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 17 | 4.08 | 6 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 4.8 | 4 | -15 |
| Points per Game | 22.6 | 14 | 19.6 | 10 | -4 |
Jets at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 23 |
| QBR | 49.1 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.2 | 39 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -107.7
2022: Mac Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.034 | 26 |
| AY/A | 5.4 | 36 |
| QBR | 32.7 | 28 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.5 | 32 |
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.6
- QB Elo per Game: -31.7
Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson
Come on. In Week 8, the Patriots were -3 on the road against the Jets, and they won 22-17. Even though they lost by only five points, the Jets trailed by 12 entering the final two minutes, and at no point in the fourth quarter were they a significant threat.
And now the Patriots are at home — and they’re still favored by just -3.
Against Wilson.
Yes, he had 355 yards and two touchdowns passing against the Patriots in Week 8 — but he also had three interceptions and completed only 48.8% of his pass attempts.
In three career starts against the Patriots, Wilson has a 53.6% completion rate and 4.1 AY/A on 616-2-7 passing with seven sacks for 53 yards. Disgusting.
Without RB Breece Hall (knee, IR), the Jets have minimal explosiveness in the running game, and they’re bottom-six in passing offense while the Patriots defense is No. 1 against the pass.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.064 | 27 | -0.153 | 1 | -26 |
| Dropback SR | 0.423 | 28 | 0.396 | 1 | -27 |
I expect Wilson to have another mediocre-at-best showing against the Patriots.
Best Line: Patriots -3 (-115, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Patriots -3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Patriots -4
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Check out our Lions at Giants matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Lions at Giants: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.
- Spread: Giants -3
- Betting Percentages: Lions - 42% bets, 68% money
Lions at Giants: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Lions ATS: 5-4 (6.9% ROI)
- Giants ATS: 7-2 (50.0% ROI)
Lions at Giants: Notable Trend
- HC Dan Campbell: 16-9 ATS (22.4% ROI) as underdog
Lions at Giants: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.004 | 16 | 0.034 | 20 | 4 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 17 | 44.1% | 16 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | 5.2% | 13 | 7.9% | 24 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.062 | 13 | 0.069 | 17 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.7% | 15 | 45.7% | 14 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | 17.0% | 11 | 13.7% | 23 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.2% | 3 | 6.0% | 22 | 19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.081 | 23 | -0.025 | 24 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 41.7% | 17 | 41.3% | 14 | -3 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.1% | 14 | -0.9% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.79 | 26 | 22 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 5 | 5.8 | 23 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 24.3 | 9 | 19.2 | 9 | 0 |
Giants Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.065 | 8 | 0.141 | 32 | 24 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 18 | 49.0% | 30 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | 2.5% | 15 | 9.7% | 26 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.129 | 6 | 0.205 | 30 | 24 |
| Dropback SR | 46.7% | 15 | 51.3% | 29 | 14 |
| Pass DVOA | 15.8% | 13 | 14.1% | 24 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.3% | 31 | 5.3% | 27 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.016 | 11 | 0.046 | 29 | 18 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 21 | 45.6% | 27 | 6 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.5% | 13 | 4.0% | 27 | 14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 23 | 4.74 | 24 | 1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 24 | 6.5 | 32 | 8 |
| Points per Game | 20.8 | 22 | 29.3 | 32 | 10 |
Lions at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.071 | 16 |
| AY/A | 7.5 | 9 |
| QBR | 54.5 | 14 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.7 | 15 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 4.9
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.1 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7 | 12 |
| QBR | 60.3 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 19 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -26.0
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Giants Defensive Line
In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the defensive line for the Giants, who are without EDGE Azeez Ojulari (calf, IR).
In my personal rankings, the Lions have the No. 1 offensive line in the league, and they’re top-four in adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards while the Giants defensive line is outside the top 20 in those metrics.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 0.042 | 3 | 0.06 | 22 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.79 | 26 | 22 |
If the Lions are able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, I like their chances to keep this game close.
Best Line: Lions +3 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Lions +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +1.25
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Check out our Bengals at Steelers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bengals at Steelers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 16.
- Spread: Bengals -4
- Betting Percentages: Steelers - 55% bets, 94% money
Bengals at Steelers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Bengals ATS: 6-3 (27.3% ROI)
- Steelers ATS: 4-4-1 (-3.4% ROI)
Bengals at Steelers: Notable Trend
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: 13-7 ATS (24.7% ROI) on road (includes postseason)
Bengals at Steelers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bengals Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.101 | 5 | 0.046 | 23 | 18 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.5% | 12 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 7.7% | 8 | -1.3% | 14 | 6 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.167 | 5 | 0.101 | 24 | 19 |
| Dropback SR | 50.4% | 6 | 46.2% | 17 | 11 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.7% | 12 | 7.6% | 18 | 6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.1% | 28 | 5.9% | 23 | -5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.032 | 12 | -0.049 | 19 | 7 |
| Rush SR | 45.0% | 5 | 38.9% | 7 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.6% | 5 | -14.2% | 7 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.61 | 11 | 4.25 | 10 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 13 | 5.8 | 23 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 25.3 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 14 |
Steelers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.056 | 26 | -0.025 | 10 | -16 |
| Total SR | 42.4% | 22 | 42.9% | 10 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | -7.3% | 22 | -7.1% | 10 | -12 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.08 | 29 | -0.037 | 6 | -23 |
| Dropback SR | 43.3% | 25 | 43.2% | 4 | -21 |
| Pass DVOA | 1.1% | 22 | -6.4% | 9 | -13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.2% | 16 | 5.0% | 29 | 13 |
| Rush EPA | -0.009 | 9 | -0.009 | 25 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 40.8% | 19 | 42.5% | 18 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | -12.5% | 24 | -7.8% | 12 | -12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.21 | 24 | 4.52 | 18 | -6 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 31 | 5.3 | 12 | -19 |
| Points per Game | 15.6 | 31 | 20.6 | 13 | -18 |
Bengals at Steelers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 160 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Joe Burrow
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.14 | 5 |
| AY/A | 7.9 | 6 |
| QBR | 55.6 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.7 | 5 |
Career: Joe Burrow
- AY/A: 8.0
- QB Elo per Game: 35.2
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 4.3 | 37 |
| QBR | 39.1 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 35 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 4.3
- QB Elo per Game: -41.2
Key Matchup: Bengals Pass Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense
The Bengals are without No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip), but they still have a strong quartet of pass catchers with WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, TE Hayden Hurst and RB Joe Mixon.
For the season, the Bengals have been a solidly above-average team in the passing game, where the Steelers defense has been been average at best.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Total DVOA | 0.077 | 8 | -0.013 | 14 | 6 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.167 | 5 | 0.101 | 24 | 19 |
| Dropback SR | 0.504 | 6 | 0.462 | 17 | 11 |
On top of that, the Steelers last week were without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and William Jackson (back, IR) and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendix), and since then Jackson has been placed on reserve and Witherspoon and Fitzpatrick have failed to practice.
In Week 1, the Bengals lost to the Steelers by just three points — in overtime — despite QB Joe Burrow committing five turnovers (4 interceptions, 1 fumble). But last year the Bengals had dominant 24-10 and 41-10 wins over the Steelers — and I don’t expect Burrow to turn the ball over five times this week.
I expect Burrow to have success against the Steelers.
Best Line: Bengals -4 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Bengals -4.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bengals -5.5
Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Bears +3.5 at Falcons
- Patriots -3.5 vs. Jets
- Lions +3.5 at Giants
- Texans +3.5 vs. Commanders
- Bengals -3.5 at Steelers
Also in consideration are:
- Titans +3.5 at Packers
- Rams +4.5 at Saints
- Raiders +2.5 at Broncos
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (SUN. 11/20): Here's the update.
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