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NFL Week 12 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 12 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 12 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 12 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Buccaneers -6
  • Commanders -10.5
  • Broncos -5.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Colts +7.5
  • Cardinals ML
  • Panthers +10.5

Top Totals:

  • HOU-TEN under 40.5
  • MIN-CHI under 39.5
  • GB-SF under 44.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Sides:

  • New York is 13-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants are 9-9 ATS over their last 18 games.
  • The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
  • They are 1-4 ATS at home this season.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in five of the Giants' last seven games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Giants' last five road games.
  • The Giants are 12-7-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (9-5-1).
  • New York is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last five home games.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last eight games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 17 Buccaneers’ games.
  • The Buccaneers are 11-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.

Totals:

  • The Giants are 8-11 toward the over in the last 19 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in eight of their last 16 games.
  • Eight of the Giants' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Giants’ last 13 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Buccaneers’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-3 O/U this season (4-2 at home, averaging nearly 52 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 6th most points per game (26.6).
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-9 record toward the over).

Overall:

It's time for Tommy DeVito. The Giants benched Daniel Jones over the bye week and will roll with DeVito for the time being. DeVito took on the role as the "plucky backup" QB last season for Big Blue, going 3-3 as a starter and 4-2 against the spread.

But DeVito surpassed 200 passing yards once and took a sack on an egregious 37.4% of his dropbacks. Also, DeVito's impact on those wins was negligible at best. New York generated 16 turnovers over his six starts, churning out a +11-turnover margin. Every game they lost, the defense had two or fewer turnovers.

For Tampa Bay to win and cover this game, it comes down to being smart with the football and not letting them beat themselves.

Baker Mayfield continues to be a great bet on the road, as Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS on the road, with the only loss coming in overtime against the Falcons.

The Giants’ only hope offensively is their rushing attack, spearheaded by rookie Tyrone Tracy. Last year with DeVito under center, the Giants offense posted a -5% pass rate over expectations.

Todd Bowles knows this and will throw whatever he can defensively to slow down the Giants’ rushing attack with loaded boxes. Note that Tampa Bay held the 49ers rushing attack to 75 rushing yards - with Christian McCaffrey seeing just 39 rushing yards.

I think the Buccaneers will have much better success running on the Giants.

The Giants have allowed the most yards before contact per attempt to running backs (2.35), allowing the fourth most rushing yards per game.

Between Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and a healthy Mike Evans back in the fold, I think Tampa's offense has more than enough to work with to win this game by a touchdown. Along with being a great bet on the road, Mayfield has typically responded well ATS after losses.

Both teams have strong red-zone defenses, so I'm very much on the under here. To the Giants' credit, they are a team that can generate a solid pass rush and create sacks. That's enough to kill drives and keep this game under 41.5 points.

Note that DeVito’s games last season were either very high-scoring (over 46 points in four games) or way under (fewer than 31 points).

Giants games at home are consistently going under the total, so I see no reason to get away from the trend.

Props:

The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Malik Nabers has surpassed 60.5 receiving yards once in his last four games since returning from his concussion. With a new QB under center, it remains to be seen how much yardage Nabers can accumulate.

Don't forget about Jalen McMillan.

He was not able to benefit from the Buccaneers WR injuries over the past month because he was sidelined with a hamstring injury.

But before his injury, he was highly involved in the offense.

Back in Week 9, McMillan led the Bucs WRs with eight targets, catching four for 35 yards. McMillan ran a route on 86% of dropbacks, leading the team. McMillan received one red zone target and did not score. McMillan commanded a 15.22% target share and contributed 95 air yards, making up 31.15% of the team's air yards. McMillan had all the usage you could ask for in his first game sans Godwin and Mike Evans. Mayfield missed him on a deep pattern that could have been a touchdown. McMillan has nearly 200 air yards in his last two games.

Practicing in full, I'd expect him to reclaim a starting WR role in the Buccaneers offense.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides

  • The Lions are 21-9 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 17-7 ATS over their last 24 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 13 of their last 14 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in each of their last nine home games
  • The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last 12 road games following a home win.
  • The favorites have won 19 of the Colts' last 23 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season
  • They are 6-2 ATS as an underdog (3-5 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last seven road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.

Totals

  • Fourteen of the Lions' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 24 home games has been 54.6 points; 75 percent (18/24) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Eight of the Lions' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Lions’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Colts' last 14 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only 4x has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (ten starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 2-4 toward the over this season (1-4 toward the under in the last five games).
  • The Colts have scored last in each of their last six games.
  • With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 4-2 toward the under in their last six games.
  • At home, 3-2 toward the over (44 points per game).
  • The Lions' last two road games have gone under the total

Overall:

This game feels so dependent on which version of Anthony Richardson we get under center. Last week against the Jets, Richardson completed 18 of 23 pass attempts from inside the pocket for a season-high 256 yards and one touchdown, his highest completion percentage (78.3%) and completion percentage above expected (+7.2%) on such attempts this season.

Richardson struggled to pass from inside the pocket prior to Week 11, recording just a 47.4% completion percentage and -10.9% CPOE on such attempts (Next Gen Stats).

Was Week 11 just a one-game blip on the radar or a sign of things to come? After re-watching this game, I still felt that there were plenty of inaccurate throws. Richardson also fumbled twice.

I don't think we are beyond Richardson as an inconsistent passer. Detroit ranks 9th in lowest completion percentage faced this season and 7th in passes defended.

Still, the Colts have been a great team as an underdog this season, as Richardson's wild card value adds an element that can be hard for the market to capture. 6-2 ATS (75%) as an underdog this season (4-0 as home underdogs).

Richardson is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. It seems like he is at his best (like last week) when his back is against the wall.

And all the Colts do is play in close contests.

The 2024 Colts have 10 of their 11 games decided by one possession, boasting a 5-5 record in close games.

The Lions also love to blitz and play man coverage. It’s not a conservative defense by any means. They are going to take chances, and Richardson has the skill set to take advantage of it.

Detroit lost linebacker Alex Anzalone last week to IR. He was the team's leader in tackles.

The Lions haven’t been great against stopping rushing inside the tackles, but the Colts have been equally as poor rushing offensively from inside.

As for the Lions offense, it's more of the same. Nothing can truly slow them down besides self-inflicted wounds.

The Colts’ defense has allowed the 5th-most average yards per carry on designed rushes between the tackles this season (4.7), including the 3rd-most yards after contact per carry (3.5) on such carries (Next Gen Stats).

It's always hard to bet against the Lions, but there's so much value on Indy at home catching a touchdown-plus.

And in this spot last season one week before Thanksgiving, the Lions almost lost to the Bears at home as 8-point favorites. The score was 26-14 with four minutes left in the fourth quarter. Chicago had a 97% win probability.

Given the Colts' offense’s tendency to start slow, it might be a great opportunity to bet on the Colts LIVE at a better number if they go down seven or ten points from the get-go.

As for the total, I think I lean toward the under at 50.5. Lions' road games go under more often than home games.

Props:

Richardson has at least 45 rushing yards in two of his last three games, with his season-long average at 39 yards.

Josh Downs has gone over 54.5 receiving yards in four straight games and in seven of his nine games played this season. Richardson is a wild card, but the Lions are a slot-funnel defense, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points allowed to the slot this season.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Sides

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 12 games and are 5-6 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites (7-11 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Twelve of their last 16 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 15-13 against the spread over its last 28 games.
  • Houston is 3-4 as road favorites. 6-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • HOU is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans have won six of their last seven home games.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
  • They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • The Titans have lost 14 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Titans have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites. They are 3-7 ATS as home favorites (30%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games.
  • The Titans are 6-8 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 13 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost 15 of their last 17 road games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 7-10-1 ATS.

Totals

  • The Texans have gone under in 19 of their last 30 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 3-8 O/U this season. Eight of the Texans' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-5 O/U at home (41.5 points per game).
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans’ last seven games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Texans' last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 15-11-1 toward the under in their last 27 games.
  • Tennessee is 1-3-1 O/U at home this season, averaging under 40 points per game.

Overall

Bet on the Titans on the road against one of the NFL's best pass rushes? No, thank you.

Tennessee has been god-awful as a road team dating back to last season and they currently sit at 1-4 ATS on the road this season.

Will Levis is going to be under pressure constantly, and that's not a recipe for success.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Titans have allowed the highest-pressure rate (43.6%) and the 6th-most sacks (33) in the NFL this season. On a positional level, the Titans are the only team in the NFL to have four offensive linemen ranked in the bottom 5 in terms of allowed pressure rate at their respective positions (min. 150 pass block snaps). The Texans’ defense, led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., has generated pressure on 39.4% of opponents’ dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. While Hunter has primarily lined up on the left edge (66.1%) this season, his alignment has recently varied. Hunter played a season-high 64.0% of snaps at the right edge in the absence of Will Anderson Jr. in Week 10, before moving back to the left edge in Week 11 (85.5%).

But the Titans’ offense might not be the only unit that struggles.

The Texans interior offensive lineman have allowed a total of 112 pressures this season, 3rd-most in the NFL this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, in Week 10, the Texans moved their starting center Juice Scruggs over to play left guard, where he has since allowed eight pressures on 76 pass block snaps, translating to a 10.5% allowed pressure rate, which would rank 29th among left guards with at least 150 pass blocking snaps.  Scruggs is expected to match up against Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who has generated 25 pressures on 238 pass rushes this season (10.5% QBP%) and a 0.92 second get-off time, the 5th-fastest among players of his position in the NFL (min 150 pass rushes). Simmons has been strong against the run, ranking 4th in run stop rate (13.5%) and 1st in run stuff rate (7.6%) among defensive tackles with at least 150 run defense snaps this season, both career highs.

The Titans can mitigate the Texans rushing offense more than most defenses. No.1 in rushing stuff rate this season.

I want to avoid sides altogether in this game and take the under on the game total at 42 points.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans’ last seven games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.

Props

I've been betting the under on Chig Okonkwo for the two weeks to success. Houston is No. 2 in DVOA versus tight ends this season. They have also allowed the third-fewest catches to the position. If it ain't broke...don't fix it.

My Picks

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-8 overall since 2023. 5-9 as an underdog in their last 14 applicable games.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
  • The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have won 21 of their last 28 home games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in their last eight games against the Patriots.
  • The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight games against the Patriots.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in their last five games.
  • The Patriots have lost 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47.5% ATS (8-9) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 21 road contests.

Totals:

  • Ten of the last 16 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Five of the Patriots' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in eight of 11 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 13-15 toward the under in its last 28 games and 5-6 this season.
  • They are 4-1 toward the over at home (over 44 points per game).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Dolphins' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Dolphins’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 3-2 toward the over at home this season (46 points per game).
  • Five of the Dolphins’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Miami has somewhat righted the ship the last three weeks, going 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS. They aren't dead in the playoff conversation, so I don't think they will pack it in anytime soon.

They've also owned the Patriots over the past few seasons during the Tua Tagovailoa era.

The Dolphins tend to play better at home, and they usually take care of business against bad teams.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.

The Patriots’ defense is not good by any means, and we should see Miami effectively move the ball on them.

The Patriots are one of the worst teams at generating a pass rush-the ninth-worst pressure this season. Combine that with a bad run defense, and I think Miami lights up the scoreboard after a strong outing against the Raiders.

If there's ever a game where Miami might want to try to attack downfield, it's in this spot.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tua Tagovailoa has accounted for every one of the Dolphins’ seven completions on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season (315 yards, 2 TD) despite having played in six of 10 possible games. Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle did not complete a single deep pass across their 11 combined attempts (INT). Marcus Jones (13) and Christian Gonzalez (10) have faced the 5th-most and 10th-most deep targets this season, respectively. Jones has allowed five deep completions for 154 yards and an interception, while Gonzalez has allowed just one deep completion for 58 yards.

Christian Gonzalez shadowed Tyreek Hill the last time the Patriots played Miami, while Waddle saw a season-high eight targets. Given the lack of attention thrown at Waddle and the lack of pressure generated by the Patriots’ defense, downfield routes should be realized for Waddle. The Patriots rank 6th in receiving yards allowed to WRs this season.

I think I like the total on this game more than anything.

The Dolphins are 3-1 toward the over with Tua the last four weeks, with the Patriots games hitting at least 47 points in three of their last five games.

New England's offense has hit season-highs in yards in back-to-back weeks. Before Drake Maye took over at QB, the last highest yardage total New England posted was against Miami. The Dolphins (led by Tyler Huntley) punted twice on 11 offensive drives.

Props:

Jaylen Waddle's receiving prop is at 39.5 yards. I'm sorry but this number is just such a low bar to pass. OVER. He's been bad all season and still hit this prop in more than half his games with Tagovailoa as his QB.

He also hit this number with Tyler Huntley at QB versus the Patriots in Week 5. So, you're telling me there's a chance...

My Picks:

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The road team has won 10 of the Cowboys’ last 12 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 13 games.
  • Dallas is 4-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games as home underdogs.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys’ last 29 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost five straight home games.
  • Dallas is 3-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 17 games. They are 7-3 ATS and straight up in their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last 12 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last six games.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in eight of their last nine games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Cowboys’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Cowboys’ last 24 games have gone OVER the projected total (last 14 of 22 games).
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 53 points this season (4-1 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 11-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • Fifteen of the Cowboys’ last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Six of the Commanders’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Commanders’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Commanders' last 10 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 15-4 toward the OVER.
  • The Commanders are 3-2 toward the under at home, averaging 44 points per game.

Overall:

I said it last week for Monday Night Football: Fade Dallas into oblivion.

So far, we are 1-0 in doing it. Trust the process. Washington is coming off additional rest against a Dallas Cowboys team that played on Monday night.

Two of Dallas' starting offensive linemen opened the week with DNPs. CeeDee Lamb didn’t practice with back and foot injuries.

Washington has not delivered playing in marquee matchups this season, but they have taken care of business against inferior opponents. The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.

Washington's No. 3-ranked run offense should have no issues against the worst run defense in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Commanders' defense should have a field day terrorizing Cooper Rush and the Dallas offense. No team has allowed fewer yards per game at home than the Commanders.

Dann Quinn knows the ins and outs of this Mike McCarthy offense, given his time spent as Dallas' defensive coordinator.

Like last week, I'm not overthinking this game. Commanders dominate, and the Cowboys' spiral in 2024 continues.

Dallas is 1-5 as a home underdog in their last six relevant games. 5-13 ATS as underdogs overall (4-8 as road dogs).

As for the total, it's an under for me. Dallas has averaged eight points per game in Rush's two starts this season. Only one team has scored more than 18 points against Washington at home this season.

Props:

Austin Ekeler has generated 401 yards after the catch this season, including +127 yards after the catch over expected, the 2nd-most in the NFL and the most among running backs.

Ekeler has gained more yards after the catch than was expected on 72.4% of his receptions, the highest rate among 87 receivers with at least 30 receptions. The Cowboys’ defense has surrendered a league-high 12.7 yards after the catch per reception to opposing running backs this season, the most by a defense in a season since 2016.

Ekeler is over 20.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games played with Brian Robinson this season.

My Picks:

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 12 of the Bears’ last 15 games.
  • The Bears are 10-7-1 ATS and 10-8 straight up in their last 18 games.
  • In each of the Bears’ last 10 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in each of their last five games.
  • The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 16 games. They are 7-3 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings are 7-3-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 10-4 on the money line (69%) but just 6-9 ATS. They have dropped seven of their last eight home games ATS as favorites.
  • All but six of the Vikings’ last 24 games have been decided by eight points or less (75%).
  • The Vikings have won the first quarter in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Vikings and Bears at Soldier Field.
  • The Vikings have won each of their last four road games against the Bears.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Bears’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bears’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bears’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 11-4-1 under the point total in their last 15 games.
  • Fourteen of the Bears’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Vikings' last 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Vikings’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 7-3 toward the under this season. 3-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging fewer than 41 points per game.
  • Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-7-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
  • The Vikings are 3-9-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Nine of the last 10 games between the Vikings and Bears at Soldier Field have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

There aren't much stronger trends this week than the under between the Vikings and Bears. It's already been bet down to 39.5 points, which I still think is a great number to take.

Nine of the Bears’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 11-4-1 under the point total in their last 15 games.

Eleven of the Vikings' last 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line. 7-3 toward the under this season. These two teams have a combined 6-14 O/U record.

Some might expect the Bears' offensive success to carry over from last week, as Caleb Williams played better with new interim OC Thomas Brown calling plays.

After recording an average time to throw of 2.90 seconds to start the season, Williams averaged a 2.42 second time to throw in Week 11 against the Packers, the quickest of his career.

Williams has generated +11.6 EPA (16th-most in the NFL) with four touchdowns and no interceptions when throwing under 2.5 seconds this season, compared to -82.0 EPA and five interceptions when taking over 2.5 seconds to throw (2nd-fewest).

The Vikings have the No. 1 defense in the NFL against quick passes.  The Vikings’ defense has allowed the fewest passing EPA (-18.1) with a league-leading eight interceptions on throws under 2.5 seconds this season.

Take the under on Williams' 20.5 pass completions this week. The last three QBs Minnesota has faced have been under 18 completions.

I backed the Bears last week, knowing that we would see a bump with the coach firing. But I don't think that will last for another week.

Bears games have averaged under 38 points per game at home this season (2-2 O/U). The only overs were when the Bears scored 24-plus points.

Minnesota's "overs" have all been against offenses like the healthy Rams, Lions, and Packers. I'm not sure the Bears (like the Jaguars/Titans the last two weeks) fall into that bucket of offenses, given that they needed a garbage time TD to push the game over the total two weeks back.

If you are looking for points this weekend, they won’t be at Soldier Field. Chicago still owns the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL.

Take the under and bet on the Vikings as 3.5-point road favorites if you want more action.

Props

Justin Jefferson has recorded a league-high 599 receiving yards against single-high safety coverage this season, averaging 4.2 yards per route run (most in the NFL, min. 100 routes).

Jefferson's 4.2 yards per route against single-high is more than double his average against split-safety coverage this season (1.9). Matchup: The Bears’ defense has deployed single-high safety coverage at the 5th-highest rate (61.1%), generating the 4th-highest defensive success rate when doing so (59.3%).

After averaging 9.8 air yards per attempt through the first ten weeks of the season, D.J. Moore recorded a season-low -0.9 air yards per target in Week 11.

Moore caught all 3 of his targets behind the line of scrimmage for 33 yards, recording 43 yards after the catch and generating +2.7 EPA, both of which are season-highs.

Burt against the Vikings’ defense, these short-quick passes are not going to generate yardage. Slam the under on Moore's receiving yards at 49.5. He's gone UNDER in four of his last five games.

My Picks

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • The Chiefs have won 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 16 of the Chiefs' last 23 games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last eight road games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 23 home games
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 20 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 19 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Chiefs' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line (13 of the last 19).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just one team to score 27 points against them (Bills in Week 11).
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-2 toward the over at home this season (Under 47 points per game).
  • Six of the Panthers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers’ last three games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (47.5 points per game).

Overall:

The process, the process, the process. Double-digit home underdogs are just too many points, especially when it's the Kansas City Chiefs. They don't blow teams out and don't care how many points they score. They just want to win.

Consider this: Away teams laying 10.5 points since 2003 per BetIQ are 42% ATS. The Chiefs are 7-9-1 ATS as road favorites (44%).

With Carolina coming off a bye week and Bryce Young building confidence after back-to-back wins, I love the Panthers at home this week, catching 10.5 points.

The last time KC played a team with a rest disadvantage (Denver in Week 10), it took a blocked field goal for them to win.

KC will attack the Panthers bad run defense with three-yard rushes from Kareem Hunt, which will eventually get them the win. But it will keep them far from winning by a double-digit margin. The Chiefs offense is the only unit with a top 5 success rate (3rd-highest, 48.2%) and a bottom 5 explosive play rate (3rd-lowest, 10.2%) this season.

Seven of the Chiefs' nine wins this season have been close games.

Props:

After being targeted on just 14.6% of his routes in Weeks 1-3, Travis Kelce has been targeted on 29.2% of his routes since Week 4.

Kelce leads all tight ends in receptions over this span (54) but has generated the 2nd-fewest receiving yards over expected among players at his position since then (-77). Matchup: The Panthers have allowed a league-high 132.1 passer rating to tight ends in 2024 while also allowing the 5th-most receiving yards over expected to the position (+78).

The Chiefs have allowed the 2nd-fewest yards per carry (3.4) and rushing yards over expected (-110) on designed runs this season, and they have contacted the ball carrier before the line of scrimmage on a league-high 52.8% of such carries. On designed runs where the offensive team has a blocking advantage, they have allowed league-lows in yards per carry (3.3) and yards over expected (-116). Chuba Hubbard has hit 56 rushing yards in all but two games this season. But this is the toughest matchup he has faced all season. One RB KC has faced this season went over 50 yards.

Given the projected negative game script, Hubbard might fall just short.

No team has allowed more yards to TEs this season than the Chiefs.

My Picks:

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The Broncos are 7-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (5-3 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Raiders are 12-7-1 ATS over their last 20 games.
  • LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last nine road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in their last eight home games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have scored last in their last six games against the Broncos.

Totals:

  • The Broncos rank third in red zone defense.
  • Five of the Broncos’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Broncos’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos’ last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos' last seven road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-2 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 39 points per game.
  • Ten of the Raiders’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-12 toward the under.
  • Five of the Raiders’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Five of the Raiders' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Raiders' last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 3-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 46.5 points per game.

Overall:

The Raiders have lost each of their last six games, with their opponents jumping out to 15 points first in all contests.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are riding high after another big win.

Denver hasn’t lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season. Bo Nix is 4-0 ATS as a favorite, and I see no reason why he can’t extend that streak to five games on the road against the Raiders.

The Broncos’ defense remains a top-notch unit that is going to present problems for Gardner Minshew. No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed

The Raiders are 2-2 ATS at home this season, losing outright as a favorite to the Panthers back in Week 3. They beat the Browns and covered against the Chiefs - but we know KC hasn't performed well ATS all year.

The Raiders' last two covers have been of the backdoor variety, which is not easily replicated. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the second half of games this season.

As for the total, I initially thought this might be a sneaky spot for the game to go OVER the total. Raiders home games have been trending toward overs.

But Denver's suffocating defense is a factor I'm not willing to ignore for a Raiders trend.

In the Broncos' last five games, one game has surpassed 44 points. I could very much see a 42-point (finish 27-17 score etc.).

The Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (41.6%) and are one of two teams to blitz on over 40% of early downs (Vikings).

Despite this, they are the only team in the NFL to generate pressure at a lower rate when blitzing (38.4%) than when rushing four or fewer (38.7%). The Raiders have allowed the highest unblocked pressure rate (23.5%) and have generated the 4th fewest EPA (-38.1) when facing the blitz.

I think the sharp play is just to lay the six points with the Broncos. We already saw the Broncos beat LV as 3-point favorites earlier this season, 34-18, despite going down 10-0 from the get-go.

Props:

Ameer Abdullah – whenever his props drop, take the over on his receiving numbers. He will likely start this week with injuries to Alexander Mattison and Zamir White.

The last time the Raiders played the Broncos, Gardner Minshew was benched. He has only hit over 33.5 pass attempts in three of nine games this season, none of which have come at home. Even if he plays the full game, there is no guarantee he will pass 33-plus times. My only concern is that the Raiders are extremely banged up at RB, so it’s something to monitor.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games in a row.
  • And that's despite them trailing in all contests to start the games.
  • The favorites have won 20 of the Seahawks’ last 25 games.
  • The road team has won each of the Seahawks’ last six games.
  • Seattle is 7-14-1 ATS in their last 22 games played (6-11-1 over the last 16 games).
  • Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Seattle is 4-5 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle as a road underdog ATS at 8-8 (50%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 5-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last seven games.

Totals:

  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-7-1).
  • However, this season, it has been a different story. Cardinals' road games have totaled 52, 57, 47 and 55 points. They are "only" 2-1-1 toward the over on the road, but three points are the difference between a perfect 4-0 record toward the over.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line (2-4 O/U) this season, averaging 42 points per game.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 12 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Seahawks’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Seahawks’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Seahawks’ last five home games against the Cardinals has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Does anybody ever feel overly confident betting on the Seahawks? This team runs so hot and cold every week that it makes them tough to trust.

They typically win when they are favored, but they don't cover. This is a sign of a team that beats bad teams, not good ones.

Case in point, the Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as favorites, and they have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games.

Seattle is a disappointment waiting to happen. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hitting their stride right before our eyes.

Arizona has won four in a row and currently holds the No. 3 seed and leads the NFC West. Given their remaining schedule, a win likely cements their status in the postseason.

An underrated part of their success this season? Smart play. They have the fewest penalties this season. Seattle? 29th in penalties.

Give me Arizona to win their fifth straight game in Week 12. The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.

Seattle's defense can't stop the run, and that's all Arizona wants to do offensively behind James Conner.

The Cardinals’ strength is their ground game. Arizona is 6-1 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season. Seattle is allowing the 6th-most rushing yards per game this season.

As for the total, I like the over. Seattle is 3-3 O/U at home this season, but they have averaged 45 points per game. Arizona road games have averaged nearly 53 points.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals’ defense has struggled against both phases, allowing a 50.8% passing success rate and 46.8% rushing success rate, both the second-highest in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals are the only team in the league to rank in the bottom five in both metrics this season. The Seahawks generate positive EPA on almost half of their dropbacks (48.6%), the 11th-highest passing success rate. However, their rushing success rate, at 37.9%, falls in the bottom 10 of the league.

The Cardinals have struggled to generate pressure this season: they are the only team in the NFL without a defender who has generated at least 20 pressures, and their pressure rate as a team (29.1%) is the 3rd-lowest.

Geno Smith has completed 77.8% of his passes when he is not under pressure this season, the 2nd-highest completion percentage in the league. When not pressured, Geno has generated positive EPA on 58.4% of his dropbacks, the 4th-highest success rate among quarterbacks.

Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all receivers on targets (72), receptions (48), and yards (544) aligned out of the slot, where he has recorded 84.8% of his targets this season (up from 67.1% last season).

Smith-Njigba's 544 yards from the slot are the most by a Seahawks receiver from such alignment in the last 5 seasons (2019: Tyler Lockett, 731).

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been effective against press coverage with 261 yards (3rd) and four touchdowns (T-2nd) on 17 receptions (2nd), all of which rank in the top 3 among wide receivers this season.

Harrison has been targeted when facing press coverage on 44.1% of his routes, the 2nd-highest target rate among wide receivers with at least 25 press routes in a season since 2016. Matchup: The Seahawks’ defense has utilized press coverage with their outside cornerbacks on 40.7% of their dropbacks faced, the 4th-highest rate in the league this season.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have played in a few blowouts this season. In these games, Murray has not frequently scrambled. But in the five games that were decided by 17 points or less, he is a perfect 5-0 toward the over on 4.5 rushing attempts. Considering the tight spread and shootout potential, Murray will be using his legs a decent amount in this matchup. The last five QBs to play Seattle have surpassed their rushing yards prop.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sides

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 16 of the 49ers' last 22 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 13 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.
  • The 49ers have been the first to 20 points in their last 17 games against NFC West opponents.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 14-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The 49ers have a 22.75 implied team total.
  • Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 11-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won five of their last six games.

Totals

  • Seven of the 49ers' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-3 toward the over at home, averaging under 48 points per game.
  • Nine of the 49ers' last 12 games against NFC West opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 18-11 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Eleven of the Packers’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, and 7 in Week 11.
  • Eight of the Packers’ last 14 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 2-3 O/U this season at home, averaging 43.4 points per game.

Overall:

Can the 49ers bounce back? The team seems to be on its final breath, clinging to any chance at a late-season postseason run.

San Francisco has been far from the elite team it was in 2023, and this is reflected in its record overall and ATS.

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records. Although they have been favored to win every game this season, they are just 5-5.

And now they find themselves in an unfamiliar position, as underdogs for the first time all season.

They didn't cover (although it was the game that Purdy got injured).

Regardless, this is the market's way of finally catching up to how the Fraudy Niners have played this season.

And even though the Packers escaped last week with a win in a game they should have lost, it's not enough to push the market back in favor of San Fran.

We are seeing the 49ers Super Bowl hangover play out before our eyes, and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of it.

The Packers had the 49ers last year in the playoffs despite being 10-point underdogs on the road.

I'd feel so much better about Green Bay had they played better against Chicago on the road or if they boasted a better record ATS at home (50% ATS).

But the Packers are just enough in the green regarding winning at home (12-8) and as home favorites (8-7) that push me toward the Packers.

The 49ers are dealing with injuries and will be without both Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. Brandon Allen will start at QB in Purdy’s place.

According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers defense has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt (5.1) and the fifth-lowest completion percentage (45.7%) when pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season. Opposing passers have thrown past the sticks on 52.2% of their total attempts under pressure against the 49ers, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Love has averaged a league-high 9.5 yards per attempt when facing four or fewer pass rushers this season, one full yard more than the next closest quarterback (Jared Goff, 8.5).

Love has been effective in part due to how infrequently he has been pressured - he has faced quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) on a league-low 5.5% of dropbacks vs. four-or-fewer rushers. Against the blitz, Love has been far less efficient has he has averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL. The 4.3 yard drop off in his yards per attempt average when blitzed compared to when not blitzed is the largest decrease in the NFL.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers defense has utilized a four-man pass rush on a league-high 80.6% of dropbacks this season. They have generated pressure just 1.3% more often when blitzing (35.5%) than when not blitzing (34.2%), the third-smallest increase in the NFL.

Love has recorded a 43.8% completion percentage and a -8.4% completion percentage over expected on passes under pressure this season, which rank 2nd-lowest in the NFL (G. Minshew).

Love has pushed the ball downfield when pressured, averaging the 6th-most air yards per attempt (11.9). Though he has struggled to complete passes, Love has been sacked on 9.8% of his pressured dropbacks, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL. In Week 11 against the Bears, Love completed every one of his three passes under pressure for 72 yards.

Ultimately, I think the Packers will win here, but my favorite bet is likely on the under.

Neither team is playing their best football, as indicated by both teams coming off two straight unders and failed covers.

Green Bay's defense is underrated - top-12 in fewest points, yards, and EPA allowed - and the 49ers offense has lost all but one game when they have scored 24 or fewer points.

SF's red-zone offense has been a nightmare 26th (although just slightly better than the Packers' 27th ranking).

Twenty-four points for the 49ers seems like the key number, given they likely win if they hit it. Only one team has scored more than 24 points against the Packers at home this season (Vikings).

If you combine Packers ML and 49ers under 24.5, you can get it at plus money (+115).

Props

Jauan Jennings leads the NFL with 3.5 yards per route run when aligned in the slot this season despite have faced press coverage on 31.2% of his slot routes, the 2nd-highest rate among wide receivers with at least 50 slot routes and more than double the NFL average (14.8%).

Jennings has caught 23 of 30 targets for 321 yards and two touchdowns when aligned in the slot, including +103 receiving yards over expected, the 4th-most in the NFL.

Green Bay leads the NFL in the highest percentage of fantasy points allowed to the slot this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, George Kittle has caught 18 of 20 targets for 230 yards and a touchdown when the nearest defender in coverage is a linebacker this season, the 4th-most yards in the NFL.

Linebackers have been the nearest defender in coverage on 26.5% of the Packers total targets faced this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, trailing only the Bears (26.8%). Packers linebackers have allowed 591 yards in coverage this season, the 8th-most in the NFL.

Kittle has surpassed 38.5 receiving yards in all eight games he has played this season.

My Picks

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