NFL Week 12 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Nov 21, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 12 odds and trends:

NFL Week 12 Early Odds & Trends

Packers @ Lions - Thursday, Nov. 23 - 12:30 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -7.5; O/U 47.5

Packers trends:

Previous 20 games vs Detroit: 6-14 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS
Previous 24 games following a win: 14-10 ATS
Matt LaFleur as an underdog (Career): 16-8 ATS

Lions trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 11-3 ATS
Previous 17 games following a win: 12-5 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 16-4 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Jared Goff (2023): 7-3 ATS
Dan Campbell (Career): 33-22-1 ATS

Best bet: Lions -7.5

I normally stray away from taking large favorites, especially in divisional matchups. Still, I think this spot is perfect for Detroit to roll at home on national television against a Green Bay team that isn't very good but is riding high after a hard-fought victory on Sunday.

Commanders @ Cowboys - Thursday, Nov. 23 - 4:30 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -11.0; O/U 48.5

Commanders trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-2-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 16 divisional games: 5-9-2 ATS
Previous 24 games following a loss: 10-12-2 ATS
Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 59-43-2 ATS

Cowboys trends:

Previous 15 divisional games: 11-4 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games vs Washington: 12-8 ATS
Previous 31 games following a win: 17-14 ATS
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 107-72-4 ATS

Best bet: WAS +11.0

I feel like this line is inflated based on last Sunday's results, with Dallas steamrolling a pretty bad Carolina team and Washington losing to a hapless Giants squad. Washington isn't that bad, and I see this as a game where they keep it close against a Cowboys team that has not performed well on Thanksgiving in recent years.

49ers @ Seahawks - Thursday, Nov. 23 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -6.5; O/U 43.5

49ers trends:

Previous 16 divisional games: 11-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS
Previous 33 games following a win: 21-12 ATS
Brock Purdy (Career): 13-5 ATS

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 48-33-3 ATS

Best bet: Under 43.5

While the 49ers trend heavily toward the over at home, those trends subside on the road. Combine that with the fact that Seahawks games have gone under in similar spots and that this is a primetime divisional matchup, and I think this game sets up perfectly for an under.

Dolphins @ Jets - Friday, Nov. 24 - 3:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -10.0; O/U 40.0

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 games vs NYJ: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 11-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 23 games following a win: 14-9 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 27-17 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 10 home games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 5-10 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 26 games following a loss: 12-14 ATS

Best bet: Under 40.0

The Jetsâ€™ offense has been horrendous all year. They will reportedly be giving the QB Tim Boyle the start in favor of Zach Wilson this week, so I don't expect many points coming from that side of the ball. Additionally, this is a road divisional game for the Dolphins in a spot where they have trended toward the under in recent years.

Saints @ Falcons - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -1.0; O/U 42.0

Saints trends:

Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 5-8-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 16-4 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 6-13-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 4-14-1 ATS

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 14 divisional games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 5-15 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 15-5 to the Under

Best bet: Under 42.0

I'm going with another divisional under in a game with a relatively high total compared to some other totals on the board this Sunday. Both teams have been among the heaviest under teams in the NFL in recent seasons, especially in spots similar to these.

Patriots @ Giants - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NE -3.5; O/U 33.5

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-4 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Giants trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-4-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 16-2-2 to the Under
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 13-8-1 ATS

Best bet: Patriots -3.5

Most of Brian Daboll's success as an underdog came last season, and although Tommy DeVito had a nice start on Sunday, it came against a pretty weak Washington defense. I doubt he'll have nearly the same success against this Bill Belichick-led defense, especially coming off of a bye.

Buccaneers @ Colts - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -2.5; O/U 43.5

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 18 games following a loss: 6-11-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 to the Over
Todd Bowles (Career): 40-48-5 ATS

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-2-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Shane Steichen as a favorite (Career): 3-1 ATS

Best bet: Buccaneers +2.5

This is actually the spread that jumped out to me the most as I went through the upcoming slate of Week 12 games. While the Colts have kept their season afloat without Anthony Richardson, I think it's only a matter of time before the wheels start to fall off. Tampa Bay has all the pieces to be explosive on the offensive side of the ball, and they've been pretty profitable ATS of late. I'll take them to cover this short spread as road underdogs in Indianapolis.

Panthers @ Titans - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - TEN -4.0; O/U 37.0

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 13 non-conference games: 5-8 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS
Previous 29 games following a loss: 9-18-2 ATS
Bryce Young (Career): 1-6-2 ATS

Titans trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 12-8 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Mike Vrabel as a favorite (Career): 19-24-1 ATS

Best bet: Panthers +4.0

While it's true that Carolina has been undeniably the worst team in the NFL this year under rookie QB Bryce Young, I'm not so sure that fellow rookie QB Will Levis should be laying four points against anybody. I'll back Carolina in this spot and fade Mike Vrabel as a favorite, where he has not been very profitable throughout his career.

Steelers @ Bengals - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PIT -1.0; O/U 34.5

Steelers trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 9-6 ATS
Previous 18 games following a loss: 11-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-11-2 ATS; 16-4 to the Under
Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 84-94-2 ATS

Bengals trends:

Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 15 games following a loss: 9-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Zac Taylor as an underdog (Career): 23-17 ATS

Best bet: Steelers -1.0

Mike Tomlin isn't necessarily the most profitable coach to back as a favorite, but I'll take the Steelers to bounce back in a game that's essentially a pick 'em, with Jake Browning making his first start of the season for the Bengals.

Jaguars @ Texans - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -1.5; O/U 48.5

Jaguars trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 18 games following a win: 11-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 8-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games vs Jacksonville: 7-3 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 9-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
DeMeco Ryans as an underdog (Career): 5-2 ATS

Best bet: Texans +1.5

The Texans have been great ATS as underdogs this season, and they've been very profitable against Jacksonville in recent seasons. I don't see this game being any different, and I'll back C.J. Stroud and company as home underdogs against a Jaguars team that they already beat handily earlier in the season.

Rams @ Cardinals - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAR -1.0; O/U 44.5

Rams trends:

Previous 10 games vs Arizona: 7-2-1 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 18 divisional games: 10-8 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 23 games following a win: 8-15 ATS

Cardinals trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-4 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 6-4 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 16 divisional games: 5-11 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 11-8-1 to the Over

Best bet: Over 44.5

Cardinals games have tended to go over out in the Big Toaster in Arizona, even without the services of Kyler Murray. He's back now, and he's shown flashes of the former No. 1 overall pick with explosive plays out of his arm and his legs. I expect him to put up points against the Rams, and I don't expect to see much resistance on the other side of the ball from a pretty weak Arizona defense.

Browns @ Broncos - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DEN -2.5; O/U 35.5

Browns trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games following a win: 6-13-1 ATS
Previous 31 conference games: 13-18 ATS

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 15 games following a win: 6-9 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 4-15-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 29 non-divisional games: 12-16-1 ATS
Previous 30 conference games: 11-19 ATS

Best bet: Broncos -2.5

While Cleveland's defense has carried the Browns to wins this season, their road games have trended to the over. This favors the Broncos in this spot, who have been on fire with four straight wins after a 1-5 start to the season. I'll back them to cover this short spread at home.

Chiefs @ Raiders - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -9.5; O/U 44.0

Chiefs trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games vs Las Vegas: 13-7 ATS

Raiders trends:

Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 2-5 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 divisional games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 22 games following a loss: 9-13 ATS

Best Bet: Raiders +9.5

While Patrick Mahomes has been money as an underdog or favorite of three or fewer, Kansas City tends to take their foot off the gas in games where they're large favorites. I'll take the home team in this divisional matchup, with the Raiders as large underdogs.

Bills @ Eagles - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -3.5; O/U 48.0

Bills trends:

Previous 10 road games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-7-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Sean McDermott as an underdog (Career): 21-17-2 ATS

Eagles trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 home games: 15-5 to the Over
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 17-13-1 ATS
Nick Sirianni as a favorite (Career): 18-14-1 ATS

Best bet: Bills +3.5

The Billsâ€™ offense finally put up some fireworks after a pretty underwhelming start to the season. I'll take them to cover this spread as underdogs over a field goal against an Eagles team coming off of a Monday night battle in Kansas City.

Ravens @ Chargers - Sunday, Nov. 26 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -4.5; O/U 47.0

Ravens trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 2-4 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 25 games following a win: 9-15-1 ATS

Chargers trends:

Previous 12 games with rest disadvantage: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-5-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Brandon Staley as an underdog (Career): 9-5-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 47.0

It seems like totals for both of these teams are inflated weekly based on offensive potential, even though both teams trend heavily toward the under. I'll take this game to go under the point total in a matchup where I think it's inflated once again.

Bears @ Vikings - Monday, Nov. 27 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIN -3.5; O/U 45.0

Bears trends:

Previous 15 divisional games: 3-12 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 30 games following a loss: 11-16-3 ATS
Matt Eberflus (Career): 10-18 ATS

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-2-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 17 games following a loss: 10-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS; 15-4-1 to the Over
Joshua Dobbs ATS (Career): 8-5 ATS

Best bet: Vikings -3.5

Chicago once again proved that they are incapable of putting together a full 60 minutes. At the same time, Minnesota just dropped their first game following a five-game winning streak without significant weapons on the offensive side of the ball. I like for the Vikings to bounce back and cover this game, especially with the possibility of Justin Jefferson returning for this contest.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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