NFL Week 12 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 12 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| LAR | ARI | 1 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0 |
| NO | ATL | -1 | -1 | 0 | 42.5 | 42 | -0.5 |
| PIT | CIN | -1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 35 | 35.5 | 0.5 |
| WAS | DAL | -11 | -12.5 | -1.5 | 47.5 | 49 | 1.5 |
| CLE | DEN | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 36.5 | 35.5 | -1 |
| GB | DET | -7.5 | -7.5 | 0 | 46 | 47.5 | 1.5 |
| JAX | HOU | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 47 | 48.5 | 1.5 |
| TB | IND | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 | 42.5 | 44 | 1.5 |
| BAL | LAC | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 46 | 48 | 2 |
| KC | LV | 9.5 | 8.5 | -1 | 44 | 42 | -2 |
| CHI | MIN | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 45 | 43 | -2 |
| NE | NYG | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 0 |
| MIA | NYJ | 7.5 | 10 | 2.5 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| BUF | PHI | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 47.5 | 48.5 | 1 |
| SF | SEA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 42.5 | 44 | 1.5 |
| CAR | TEN | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 37 | 36.5 | -0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Wednesday evening)
NFL Week 12 Spread Movement Analysis
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: +1 ?' -1.5
The Rams were able to pull off their second win against the divisional rival Seahawks last week to improve to 4 – 6. They did lose WR Cooper Kupp early in the game and he has not practiced as of Wednesday. It will be important to monitor if Kupp is able to suit up, but they do get starting RB Kyren Williams back from IR. That said, the line movement has gone 2.5-points in the Cardinals favor. Kyler Murray has looked back to full strength and the Cardinals have been in two one-score games since his return. With both starting QB’s now healthy, this should be another close game as the line indicates.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: +7.5 ?' +10
The Jets dropped an additional 2.5-points since naming QB Tim Boyle the starter versus the Dolphins on Black Friday. The 4 – 6 Jets are in desperation mode to scrape together a couple of wins before the potential surprising return of Aaron Rodgers in mid-December. If the Jets continue to lose, it is likely we won’t see Rodgers until next season. It is hard for the Jets’ offense to be much worse than it his been over the last four weeks. They have averaged 9.25 ppg and now face the league leading (28.5 ppg) Dolphins. While the defense has been stellar, it is hard to overcome an offense averaging less than 10 ppg.
NFL Week 12 Total Movement Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: 46 ?' 48
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Ravens have won 5 of their last 6, while the Chargers have dropped 4 of their last 6. However, both offenses are still operating at a high level, which provides support for the total increase. The Ravens have not scored less than 31 points over their last five games. Meanwhile, outside of the Chargers playing Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent, or Zach Wilson, they are allowing 28.9 ppg. Justin Herbert and the offense has kept them competitive the last four weeks, averaging 28.8 ppg.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 45 ?' 43
Justin Fields returned for the Bears last week and strengthened his case for the Bears to consider passing on a QB with the potential #1 pick in next year’s draft. He showed no signs of rust and displayed his dynamic playmaking ability. That said, it was a familiar result, which saw the Bears lose after holding a 12-point leading with four minutes remaining. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ new QB Josh Dobbs was only able to lead the offense to 20-points in their 20 – 21 loss at Denver. In their last matchup in Week 6, the Vikings defense was dominating Fields prior to the injury that he sustained in that game. Fields played 53% of the snaps and only completed 6 passes for 58 yards, while throwing 0 TD’s and an INT. The Vikings aggressive defense presents a different challenge than Detroit’s last week.
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