Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 12 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| TEN | HOU | -7.5 | -8 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 40.5 | -1 |
| DET | IND | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 50.5 | 50 | -0.5 |
| MIN | CHI | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 39 | -1.5 |
| TB | NYG | 3.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
| NE | MIA | -7.5 | -7 | -0.5 | 45 | 46 | 1 |
| KC | CAR | 11.5 | 11 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 43 | 1.5 |
| DAL | WAS | -10 | -10.5 | 0.5 | 45.5 | 45 | -0.5 |
| DEN | LV | 4.0 | 6.0 | -2 | 40.5 | 41 | 0.5 |
| SF | GB | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 47.5 | 47 | -0.5 |
| AZ | SEA | -1 | 0 | -1 | 48 | 47.5 | -0.5 |
| PHI | LAR | 3 | 3 | 0 | 47.5 | 49 | 1.5 |
| BAL | LAC | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 49 | 51 | 2 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 12 Spread Movement Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: +3.5 -> +6
This point spread has moved non-stop in the Buccaneers’ favor ever since Monday morning, despite making stops at each half-point increment from +3.5 to +6 along the way.
The Giants were the latest team to make a starting quarterback change, demoting former starter Daniel Jones to No. 4 on the depth chart and replacing him with Tommy DeVito.
Bettors do not seem to care too much that DeVito at one point sparked the Giants last year to three consecutive wins in relief of the injured Jones and Tyrod Taylor.
The Buccaneers have injury concerns of their own with star wide receiver Mike Evans getting in limited practices while dealing with a hamstring injury. But I would expect oddsmakers to continue moving the line up to +6.5 or possibly even to the key number of +7 to gauge at what point they will get buyback on the home underdogs.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders: +4 -> +6
This is another spread that has moved non-stop in one direction from +4 to +6, but it has less to do with injuries or quarterback changes and more to do with one team’s recent performances.
Denver was a blocked field goal away from handing Kansas City its first loss at Arrowhead Stadium two weeks ago, and is coming off a 32-point win against the Falcons that helped complete a 4-0 sweep of NFC South teams this year.
The Broncos’ 32-point win was its biggest margin of victory since 2018, and in the process, Bo Nix tied a Broncos rookie record with four touchdown passes (he is the first to do so since 1968). He also set a career-high with 307 pass yards and became the first rookie in NFL history with 300 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and an 80% completion percentage in a game.
The Broncos are 6-5 and have already surpassed their projected season win total of 5.5, while the Raiders are trying to buck the trend that home underdogs in divisional games have covered the spread just 42% of the time over the last two seasons.
NFL Week 12 Total Movement Analysis
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 40.5 -> 39
This total between the two NFC North opponents has made stops at 40 and 39.5 before reaching a week-long low of 39. That has a lot to do with the fact that the Vikings have allowed 11 points per game during a three-game winning streak, while the Bears have scored just 11.5 points per game during a four-game losing streak.
Chicago entered last week with zero touchdowns in its last 23 drives. It did manage two touchdowns and 19 total points in its 20-19 loss to the Packers last week. But Under backers are likely aware of the trend that the Under has cashed in nine of the last 10 games at Soldier Field between these teams.
The weather forecast for Sunday in Chicago is not bad, with it being 50 degrees and just a 6% chance of precipitation. That will likely be the one thing keeping this total from continuing to plummet before kickoff, as I would expect some buyback on the Over at some point.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: 49 -> 51
No total has risen as much during the week as this Monday Night Football clash between not only the Ravens and Chargers, but the Harbaugh brothers as well.
This line movement is likely bettors reacting to L.A.’s game in primetime last week on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers beat the Bengals 34-27, with each team totaling at least 435 yards of offense and the two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
It has not been a steady increase throughout the week. The line initially ballooned from 49 to 51, and was bet back down to 49.5 before rebounding to 51. That suggests there is sharp action on both sides of the total, but that more of the bigger and more respected bets have come in on the Over.
This game is a fascinating battle of the most profitable Over team (Baltimore is 9-2 to the Over) and the most profitable Under team (the Under is 7-3 in the Chargers’ 10 games) this season.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
