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NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

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I’m bringing 3 bets to the Thanksgiving dinner table for future recommendations this week, two of which are playoff-centric and one of which is an award winner. The playoff bets include a play on Houston to win the AFC South ahead of a critical home matchup against Jacksonville this weekend and a Super Bowl Finalists future of the Ravens to play the 49ers, the two teams that I see as the most complete on both sides of the ball in their respective conference. The award play is for Joshua Dobbs to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, basically following in the same footsteps that Geno Smith laid out as the award winner last season.

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NFL Week 12: Best Futures Bets

Houston Texans to Win the AFC South (+240 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Just one game separates the Jacksonville Jaguars from the Texans in the AFC South ahead of this Sunday’s game in Houston. A win would catapult the Texans to the top spot in the division after a convincing 37-17 victory over the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 3.

The Texans grade out as the decidedly better team on the offensive side of the ball, with the runaway OROY favorite CJ Stroud leading them to the NFL’s third ranked offense in terms of net yards per pass attempt. They rank in the top-10 in points allowed per possession, yards gained per possession, first downs gained and offensive turnovers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 13th or worse in every single one of those categories.

On the defensive side of the ball these teams are nearly identical: Both rank in the top-10 at defending the run and outside the top-20 at defending the pass. The Jaguars still have remaining matchups with teams like the Ravens, Browns, Bengals (albeit without Burrow), Texans and Buccaneers, while Houston’s toughest remaining games are against the Browns, Jaguars, Broncos and Colts.

This play is extremely similar to this past week’s recommendation to bet the Falcons to win the NFC South – both teams have home matchups against the division leader that would propel them to the division lead with a win. Houston has the better offense, the easier remaining schedule and all the confidence in the world to sweep the season series against the Jaguars with a big home win on Sunday.

Joshua Dobbs to Win Comeback Player of the Year (+450 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

If you’re of the mindset that this is the de facto Damar Hamlin award, I won’t argue with you. That is a completely unprecedented situation and we have no idea how voters will take that into consideration at the end of the season. If you are not of that mindset, then I believe that this price is entirely too long for Dobbs, who I think should be the rightful favorite for the award.

Most think of this award as a player who came back from a season-ending injury to outperform expectations in his returning season, but we actually don’t have to look back very far at all to find an analogous situation to Dobbs. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith won the award this past season, and he didn’t recover from any injury. Smith simply emerged as a starting quarterback who outperformed expectations after an extended stint as a journeyman backup quarterback … sounds a whole lot like Dobbs, doesn’t it?

Dobbs was dropped into an impossible situation in a trailing game script at Atlanta and he led a comeback effort that included teaching his offensive line his cadence on the sideline and throwing touchdowns to players who’s names he legitimately did not know. He followed that up by trouncing the NFC South-leading Saints at home before nearly pulling off a road upset in one of the toughest atmospheres to play at in the NFL in Denver. Oh, and he’s doing this without the services of wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who they hope will return to the fold soon. From all accounts, everyone loves Dobbs and the narrative of the former aerospace engineer will only draw voters toward his case when the time comes.

If Dobbs keeps stacking up wins and gets this team to the playoffs, I don’t see how you can pass up on playing him at this price to win Comeback Player of the Year.

Super Bowl Finalists: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (+1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The nice thing about these exact finalist matchups is that it can set you up for hedge opportunities in either conference if you still have some dogs left in the fight when it comes to championship weekend.

Getting into this forecast specifically, a few weeks ago I gave out the Ravens to win the AFC and my stance on them has only gotten stronger now that they currently hold the top spot in the conference. They have a top-six passing attack, debatably the best rushing attack and a defense that has a case to be the top unit in the NFL. John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the game, they have one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL and Lamar Jackson is gaining steam to potentially win his second MVP award.

The recent injury to Mark Andrews is obviously a blow, but they revamped their receiver room in the offseason and have a very capable backup tight end in Isaiah Likely. I still like the Ravens chances to make the Super Bowl, especially if the AFC path runs through Baltimore.

Regarding the 49ers on the NFC side of this bet, the return of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams has firmly reasserted them as one of the best teams in the NFL with decisive wins over the Jaguars and Buccaneers after a midseason swoon. San Francisco, simply put, is the NFC’s version of the Ravens – a complete team on both sides of the ball, able to run and pass the ball while also defending the rush and the pass at a top-10 level at all facets.

They have weapons at every skilled position, one of the best offensive lines with potentially the best lineman in the league, playmakers on defense and one of the best offensive minds in the game at head coach with Kyle Shanahan. Though they currently sit at third in the NFC, something is missing from the Eagles team that made the Super Bowl a season ago, and I’m not scared at all of a potential trip to Detroit for this team. I think this is a fun bet to play at long odds with debatably the 2 most complete teams in the NFL while also setting yourself up for potential hedge opportunities down the line.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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