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NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Tommy DeVito’s solid 246-yard performance earned us a +650 winner last week. This week, every NFL team is in action, with football played on four days instead of three.

The New England Patriots and New York Giants meet in a battle of the two lowest-scoring teams in football. The Buffalo Bills will look to make it two solid offensive performances in a row, and the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos meet in what is sure to be a defensive battle.

Here are the best long-shot bets of Week 12 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 12 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New England Patriots -13.5 @ New York Giants (+345)

The Giants shocked the Washington Commanders last weekend. That performance has many bettors confident in the Giants this week against the 2-8 Patriots. However, there has never been a better time to fade the Giants and back the Patriots not just to win, but to dominate this game.

Bill Belichick is 16-7 as a head coach coming off the bye. Though we have no idea who will be starting at quarterback for the Patriots, the fact that DeVito is the starter for the Giants is more than enough for us to take the Patriots to cover the 3.5 they’re favored by.

This is a great spot for the Patriots to blow off some frustration from this season. Their last two losses were by a combined seven points, and one could argue that they should have won both games. Before their win over the Commanders, the Giants had lost their previous two games by 32 and 24 points, respectively. The Patriots’ offense will need to score 21 points for this bet to hit. That’s far from a sure thing. Still, with an extra week to prepare for an awful Giants team, we expect this to get ugly.

Stefon Diggs 120+ Receiving Yards (+475)

The Bills scored 32 points and amassed 393 yards against the New York Jets last week. Yet, despite the numbers, Stefon Diggs once again disappointed, ending the game with four catches for 27 yards. It was Diggs’ second consecutive performance under 40 yards, and it marked his fifth consecutive game with fewer than 100 yards. Yet, we’re backing the former Maryland Terrapins this week, as the Bills’ passing attack should put up plenty of yards against the Eagles’ secondary.

The Eagles allow 248.1 passing yards per game, which is fifth-most in the league. Offensively, they’ve been great, and they should score with relative ease against a beat-up Buffalo defense. That means the Bills will be throwing for most of this game. That sets up well for Diggs to go over 100 yards for the first time since Week 6. 

Even though Diggs’ yardage hasn’t been there over the past few weeks, he does have at least seven targets in all but one game this season. If Allen throws the ball as much as we think he will, it will just be about actually getting the ball in his best receiver’s hands.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos Under 1.5 Touchdowns (+650)

The Broncos have had one of the best defensive units in football over the last five weeks. They’re allowing just 17.4 points per game and haven’t allowed a single opponent to score more than 22 points during that stretch. This week, the Broncos face an offense led by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, which means they’re in line for another impressive performance.

Still, the Browns could win this game because their defense is also one of the best in football. They allowed just 10 points and 249 total yards to the Steelers last week, and they shut the Cardinals out 27-0 earlier this season.

Additionally, the Broncos have had difficulty scoring touchdowns in recent weeks. They scored just one on Sunday night, settling for five field goals. They scored two touchdowns the week before, but one came on an improbable fourth-down conversion from Russell Wilson to Courtland Sutton. Both teams have offensive problems right now, and both defenses are playing great. This prop offers fantastic value at +650.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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