NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 12
Saints vs. Falcons
It feels like Atlanta Falcons home games go one of two ways: they either lose straight up, or win on a late field goal by Younghoe Koo. In this case, I'm on the optimistic side of the spectrum and like this spot for the Falcons, who enter this game losers of three in a row and desperate to stay in a wide-open NFC South race. Perhaps this is too simplistic, but I just don't think the Saints are all that good. Their wins this year have come over Ryan Tannehill (by 1), Bryce Young (by 3), Mac Jones, Gardner Minshew and Tyson Bagent (by only 7). And I'm not here to tell you Atlanta's fared much better, but they have wins over Green Bay and Houston, two mutual opponents the Saints lost to. All that being said, these two teams are awfully similar, but I think the Falcons are slightly better and healthier. New Orleans won't have Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore Sunday, which are two important absences. Meanwhile, Atlanta will get cornerback Dee Alford and defensive tackle David Onyemata back from injury. And while Desmond Ridder isn't all that encouraging under center, I don't think there's a massive difference between him and Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. In a game featuring pretty similar divisional rivals, I'll go with the healthier team at home that's definitely more desperate.
Pick: Atlanta +1 (-110)
Steelers vs. Bengals
There's a lot to unpack in this game. The Steelers fired Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada, while the Bengals will be forced to start Jake Browning at quarterback. Eddie Faulkner will now call plays for the Steelers, so there will likely be some new wrinkles in the Pittsburgh offense that has struggled to be consistent all year. Meanwhile, Browning of the Bengals pleads with the coaching staff not to simplify anything. He wants to keep the Bengals doing exactly what they were doing under Joe Burrow. If anything, the final drive for the Bengals against the Ravens looked solid. It ended with a Browning touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase. Browning doesn't have experience, but he's been in the system and is a veteran presence, if nothing else. The Bengals being underdogs at home is a little too much. The Steelers are about to see some regression. I think Browning fits this Cincinnati offense and will deliver. Give me the Bengals at +2 at home.
Pick: Bengals +2 (-110)
Panthers vs. Titans
The Panthers and Titans have both lost four of their last five games. But analytically, the Panthers are still much worse. Bryce Young will need some time to develop in Carolina. He's thrown nine touchdown passes but has eight interceptions on the season. Meanwhile, the Panthers don't have any running back over 500 yards this season between Chubba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Adam Thielen has played well and is Carolina’s No. 1 receiver. That's just typically not going to get the job done. The Titans don't have the best secondary. But the pass rush should at least create some kind of havoc for Tennessee. While Carolina's pass defense is a bit better, the Panthers struggle to tackle. They're also weak against the run. Derrick Henry hasn't had a huge season for the Titans. But Tennessee should consider feeding Henry the ball as much as possible in this game. If the Titans rely on Henry to win them the game, they'll leave with their fourth win of the season. Take the Titans at -3.5.
Pick: Titans -3.5 (-110)
Buccaneers vs. Colts
The early good times of the Buccaneers have seemed to diminish as they've lost five of their last six. The earlier part of the season is showing it was an easier schedule, and now they're playing a tougher one, and it looks as though their potential playoff hopes are diminishing. The Colts are hanging around at 5-5, and they're only two games out in the AFC South, but losing both games to the Jaguars will make it tough. Gardner Minshew has done well taking over for Anthony Richardson, with Jonathan Taylor back as the lead back, but at just 3.8 yards per carry, he continues to regress from his 2021 breakout season. The Buccaneers are dealing with a lot of injuries to some important players, specifically on the defensive side, which has impacted them because the offense has played well the last few games. The Colts’ offense has also been involved in some high-scoring games, so this could definitely go that way.
Pick: Over 44.5 (-110)
Patriots vs. Giants
Should the New England Patriots really be laying three points on the road against anyone? Even against Tommy DeVito? Rather than recommending you go out and put your hard-earned money on the DeVito-backed Giants against Bill Belichick (although I lean with the Giants), I'll instead go with the under. While New England and New York's defenses are both below average, Belichick has a knack for making inexperienced quarterbacks miserable in their debuts against him. And while the Giants offense ranks dead-last in EPA, the Patriots aren't all that far ahead at 29th in EPA. Is the under an obvious bet? Yes. But that doesn't make it the wrong side.
Pick: Under 33.5 (-110)
Jaguars vs. Texans
The Jaguars are looking like they're getting things together, winning six of their last seven. We're also seeing Trevor Lawrence improve, as last week, he became the first Jaguars quarterback to have two passing and rushing touchdowns in a game. No one in the league currently has more hype and momentum than the Texans. They've pulled off three straight wins, and C.J. Stroud is a lock for offensive rookie of the season, but some are looking at him as an MVP candidate. Both of these teams are playing their best football at the moment, and with Houston being just a game behind Jacksonville, this game is a tone-setter. The Texans have played some close ones, and if a couple of things went the other way, their season could look way different. Other than the 49ers game, the Jags have looked much better than their opponents on both sides, and the eye test has them looking better.
Pick: Jaguars -1.5 (-110)
Browns vs. Broncos
Despite everything working against these teams, the Browns and Broncos are two of the hottest teams in the AFC. Cleveland is still figuring things out offensively without Deshaun Watson, but that defense is still elite. Cleveland ranks first in the league in both run and pass DVOA defense. The Broncos won’t have much success in the air, as their offensive line allows a 9.8% adjusted sack rate which is sixth worst in the league. As great as Russell Wilson is at scrambling, Cleveland is a different animal on the defensive line. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has been running in mud on offense after losing their star running back and quarterback for the season. Sure Denver has the worst defense in the league by most analytics, but recent results have them closer to league average on defense. Against this Cleveland offense that only managed 13 last week, Denver should have success. It’s certainly no secret that everyone is going to look at the under here, but at this number there is still value. I’m not sure how either team gets to 20+ points in this game. Don’t overthink it, just take the under.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-110)
Rams vs. Cardinals
Things need to start going right for the Rams, or else this could be another season where they're done after Week 18. Matthew Stafford made his return after a thumb injury sidelined him, but he looked rusty, overall, the entire offense wasn't great last week against Seattle, with just 267 yards of total offense. They could be getting Kyrien Williams back, and Cooper Kupp's injury last week doesn't look like it will make him miss time, so we could see a better performance. The Cardinals offense is looking much better with Kyler Murray back behind center. Murray looked good in the two games since returning, and he's been able to throw well, and his legs are great coming off an ACL tear. It could come down to who's defense makes more stops, and that heavily favors the Rams.
Pick: Rams -2.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Last week, the Chiefs did not look like champions. There were a lot of physical and mental mistakes, but still, they were one Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch away from pulling off a win. Kansas City is still in the hunt for the top seed in the playoffs, and currently, they hold the tiebreaker against Baltimore and Miami, so they control their own destiny. The Raiders with Antonio Pierce as the head coach, look like a whole new team. They beat bad teams in the first two games, and against the top-seeded Miami, they made the top offense in the league struggle. This will not be a team that feels intimated against the Chiefs, especially with this game in Vegas. They could make Kansas City grind out a win and make this close.
Pick: Raiders +10 (-110)
Bills vs. Eagles
Another big AFC matchup for the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. This time they’ll take on the Bills. This is a big game for Buffalo as we’re getting desperately close to this being a lost season for the Bills. Sitting at just 6-5, they’re currently outside the playoff picture and another loss here could be brutal. The Eagles won’t be an easy opponent. Lost in the talk of the Bills’ season is that Josh Allen is having one of his best seasons. Outside of his turnover problem, he’s on pace for near career highs in yards, touchdowns and completion percentage. He can have success against this Philadelphia pass defense that was a few untimely drops away from giving up a huge game to Patrick Mahomes. The Bills have a much more reliable cast of pass catchers and shouldn’t have the same issues. For Philadelphia against this banged up Buffalo defense, it’s going to be business as usual. A top 10 passing and running unit in Philadelphia should be able to sustain successful scoring drives on Buffalo all day. This game could easily divulge into a shootout. I love the over.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-108)
Ravens vs. Chargers
This primetime spot screams Chargers. Los Angeles' season might be on the line Sunday night after they fell to 4-6 in a disgusting road loss to Green Bay. Brandon Staley's clearly feeling the heat, as evidenced in his postgame presser. And I'm always intrigued by getting more than a field goal at home with Justin Herbert. But I just don't love the matchup enough. While Los Angeles has been better against the run this year, they still rank 20th in EPA in that category, as Staley's defense remains predicated on limiting explosive plays. That's completely fine against the Ravens, who have been decent enough when it comes to staging long drives. The Ravens rank 11th in average yards per drive, while Los Angeles' defense ranks 31st. Factor in that Baltimore ranks 5th in third-down conversions, and we could see the Chargers defense once again struggle to get stops. That being said, I think Herbert and co. can answer back, as the Chargers rank 10th in yards per drive as well as third-down conversion rate. Herbert should be able to attack a Ravens secondary that could be without Marlon Humphrey. And with Baltimore approaching its bye week, I could see them being more cautious with their injured starters. Going against this primetime under train is perilous, but I think both offenses have enough to get it done.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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