NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thanksgiving Day)
Happy Thanksgiving from BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our picks and predictions for today’s slate of games. Make sure to check in with BettingPros throughout the year for top picks and predictions for each and every NFL game. Our writers dive into their favorite picks and predictions for every remaining game on this weekend’s NFL slate. And let’s take a closer look at Thanksgiving Day.
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thanksgiving Day
Packers vs. Lions
The injury bug has hit the Green Bay Packers again. The Packers likely won't have Aaron Jones or Luke Musgrave for their early Thanksgiving matchup against the Lions. The Packers are already starving for points. They've scored 20.2 points per game and earned under 320 yards of offense behind Jordan Love. While Love has shown signs of improvement, consistency has been lacking with Green Bay. Without two of the most important offensive players on the team, Green Bay will likely struggle to move the ball, especially in the run game. The Lions have held teams to under 90 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 22.9 points per game. While the defense hasn't been elite over the last few weeks, the offense has done enough. I think it'll continue to do enough with the tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Those two are a dominant duo in the run game. With Green Bay allowing 134.7 yards on the ground, the Lions should have plenty of success moving the football with a balanced attack. Take the Lions at -7.5.
Pick: Lions -7.5
-Jason Radowitz
Commanders vs. Cowboys
There are few traditions more notable than the Cowboys playing on Thanksgiving. However, the Cowboys have had some difficulty covering on Thanksgiving over the last decade and more. 1-11 is Dallas’s record ATS since 2011. This year Washington comes to town and sits as 11-point dogs. With the Commanders coming off of a loss to the lowly Giants and their third-string quarterback it’s easy to write them off against a surging Cowboy team. The Cowboys have been led by an elite defense, but if they have a weakness it’s against the run, where they rank only 13th in DVOA. This is an area where the Commanders can have success. If they can get things started on the ground that can open things up for Sam Howell who has been pretty good when he isn’t turning the ball over. For a divisional game, this is too large of a spread. Washington is 4-7 but they’ve only lost by double digits twice. If they can limit the turnovers they can cover this number easily.
Pick: Commanders +11
-Ryan Rodeman
49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks have announced that Geno Smith will play on Thanksgiving Day against the 49ers. But I'm still cautious. He might not be 100%, especially coming into this game on short rest. Smith and the Seahawks have averaged 230.5 yards per game in the air. Many were expecting better this year. However, his favorite target, D.K. Metcalf, only has three touchdowns on 40 receptions this year. The offense will likely have a hard time trying to throw the ball against the 49ers. San Francisco is likely the best passing defense in the NFL. They've allowed 221.4 yards per game, but when the 49ers' defense is locked in, they're very hard to break. The secondary is stacked with talent, along with the pass rush. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III has an oblique injury and could miss this game. Seattle's offense will likely struggle to find any consistency. On the other hand, the defense has been good enough. They've held teams to 233 yards in the air and 112.6 yards on the ground. San Francisco will have more success rushing the football with Christian McCaffrey, but they could take much time off the clock between drives. I'm on the Under 43.5 in this one.
Pick: Under 43.5
-Jason Radowitz
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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