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NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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We’ll already be four games deep into the Week 12 slate by the time Sunday rolls around, but there are still some alluring player-prop options left over for Sunday and Monday. Please enjoy these recommendations with a turkey sandwich and some warmed-up mashed potatoes.

We’ll get to the Week 12 picks in just a moment. But first, a recap of Week 11 …

The wins: Sam Howell over 245.5 passing yards, Joshua Dobbs under 229.5 passing yards, David Montgomery over 49.5 rushing yards, Darrell Henderson under 39.5 rushing yards, Adam Thielen over 59.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 24.5 receiving yards

The losses: Josh Jacobs over 62.5 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb over 83.5 receiving yards, David Njoku under 31.5 receiving yards

Last week: 6-3

Season record: 51-54

Here are my favorite selections for Week 12 …

NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.

Will Levis UNDER 197.5 passing yards

Levis has topped this number in three of his four starts and is averaging 214.3 passing yards a game, but the justification for the under is the rookie’s matchup against Carolina. The Panthers have an extreme run-funnel defense, with opponents running the ball on 50.7% of their offensive snaps. Carolina has given up the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league (179.2 per game) and is allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

Justin Herbert UNDER 252.5 passing yards

Herbert remains short on firepower at the WR position, with Mike Williams out for the season, Joshua Palmer on injured reserve, and first-round rookie Quentin Johnston unable to get traction due in no small part to his frying-pan hands. Herbert has a hellish Sunday-night matchup against a Baltimore defense that ranks No. 2 in DVOA against the pass and is allowing just 169.7 passing yards per game and 4.6 yards per pass attempt. Herbert has made three other starts this season against teams with pass defenses that rank in the top five in DVOA — the Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets. Herbert averaged 207.3 passing yards in those three games, with a high of 259 yards against the Chiefs. Fade Herbert vs. the Ravens.

Travis Etienne UNDER 63.5 rushing yards

The Houston Texans had an abysmal run defense for years, but that has changed under new head coach DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke. The Texans rank 12th in DVOA vs. the run and are giving up 73.6 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry to RBs. Eitenne had 19 carries for 88 yards against Houstin in Week 3, but the Texans’ run defense has since gotten stingier, holding five of its last six opponents under 100 rushing yards. Etienne has failed to clear this number in four of his last five games.

Jerome Ford OVER 48.5 rushing yards

With fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at quarterback, the Browns are incentivized to go with a run-heavy gameplan. In his four appearances this season, Thompson-Robinson has thrown four interceptions and zero TD passes, and he’s averaging a meager 3.7 yards per pass attempt. Ford has logged 49 carries over his last three games, and he gets a juicy matchup against a Denver run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and is giving up 138 rushing yards per game to RBs. Yes, those numbers are skewed by the Dolphins’ record-setting 350-yard rushing day against the Broncos in Week 3, but the Denver run D is still marshmallow-soft. Buffalo’s James Cook had 12 carries for 109 yards against the Broncos in Week 11, and Minnesota RBs Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler combined for 154 rushing yards against Denver in Week 12.

Alexander Mattison UNDER 45.5 rushing yards

Mattison ran for 81 yards against a bad Denver run defense last week, but he’s failed to clear this number in six of his last seven games. Mattison has a much tougher matchup this weekend against a sneaky-good Chicago run defense that’s giving up 64.1 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry to RBs. Second-year RB Ty Chandler has been getting more work for Minnesota in recent weeks, and it’s possible the Vikings dial back on Mattison’s workload after his fumble late in the third quarter with the Vikings in field goal range contributed to a 21-20 loss to the Broncos last week.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 37.5 receiving yards

Saints WR Michael Thomas is on injured reserve, which should mean a healthy dose of snaps and targets for Shaheed this week against the Falcons. Not that Shaheed really needs a lot of targets to top this number. He’s been ridiculously efficient since entering the league in 2022, averaging 17.2 yards per catch and 12.1 yards per target for his career.

Mike Evans OVER 62.5 receiving yards

Now in his 10th season, Evans remains on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Since entering the league in 2014, he’s never failed to record a 1,000-yard season, and this year he’s on pace for 1,326 yards, which would be his highest total since 2018. Evans has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games. He’s finished with 60 or fewer receiving yards five times this season, but Evans averaging 78 yards per game. The over on Evans’ yardage total is a solid percentage play.

DeVonta Smith OVER 57.5 receiving yards

Perhaps we get an A.J. Brown “squeaky wheel” game this week after Brown had only a single 8-yard catch Monday night against the Chiefs. The last time Brown had fewer than 30 receiving yards in a game (Week 2 vs. Minnesota), he stormed back with 131 receiving yards against Tampa Bay the following week, launching a streak of six consecutive games with 125 or more receiving yards. But Brown’s yardage total is 81.5 yards. I’m more attracted to this extremely low bar for Smith. The second-year receiver known as “The Slim Reaper” is averaging 63.2 receiving yards per game this season. Last week, in the Eagles’ first game without injure TE Dallas Goedert, Smith had 6-99-0 on eight targets. Goedert’s absence should continue to keep Smith heavily involved, and I think he’s a good bet to put up nice numbers this week vs. the Bills.

D.J. Moore OVER 58.5 receiving yards

Here’s my favorite play of the week. In the six games that Bears QB Justin Fields has started and finished for the Bears this season, Moore has averaged 5.7 receptions and 104.5 receiving yards. Moore should have little trouble topping this number against a Vikings defense that has given up the seventh-most receiving yards to WRs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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