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NFL Week 12 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The rest of Week 12 is upon us. Let’s take a look at our top same game parlay picks for each game on the afternoon slate this Sunday.

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Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets (Week 12)

Patriots @ Giants

These two teams have had tough seasons, and the most important implications this game carries are related to next year’s draft position. Even still, this should be an interesting matchup. The Giants appear to have figured something out last week after they put up 31 points on the (admittedly struggling) Washington Commanders defense in a win.

Tommy DeVito threw for 250 yards and may have turned a corner as a legitimate starter for the rest of the season. DeVito could see a solid passing day against the Patriots average pass defense and this could also lead to a Saquon Barkley touchdown. Barkley has over four red zone opportunities (carries + targets) per game this season, even as the Giants have struggled on offense for most of the year. He also scored twice last week, and should be in line for red zone opportunities if DeVito plays well.

The Giants have struggled to defend tight ends this year – they’re bottom-five in yards per reception allowed to opposing tight ends. They also allowed Commanders tight end Logan Thomas to put up 60 receiving yards last week. Henry has at least three catches in the Patriots’ past three games and should go over 25 yards with similar volume on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +575

Steelers @ Bengals

There’s a couple reasons why this game should be low-scoring. First, it’s the first career start for Bengals quarterback Jake Browning. He played alright late in Cincinnati’s loss to Baltimore last week, but he’s a clear step backward for the Bengals’ offense which has struggled this year. Additionally, this will be Pittsburgh’s first game without offensive coordinator Matt Canada. While Canada was arguably the worst OC in the NFL, mid-week transitions are difficult in the NFL and it may take a bit before the Pittsburgh offense is off to the races. 

Both offenses should still feed their best playmakers, though. For the Steelers, that will mean plenty of opportunities for running back Jaylen Warren. He’s rushed for 88 or more yards on 15 or fewer carries in each of Pittsburgh’s past three games. The Bengals also have a bottom-five rush defense in terms of yards per carry allowed. For the Bengals, that will mean Browning feeding his best receiver, Ja’Marr Chase. Chase had a down week last week, but Pittsburgh is a bottom-five defense against opposing WRs in yards per game allowed.

Parlay Odds: +625

Panthers @ Titans

Neither of these teams is playing particularly well lately. Tennessee has lost five out of past last six games, while Carolina comes in with a 1-9 record on the season. Given Bryce Young’s struggles and the fact that Will Levis has shown some positive signs even in losses, I think Tennessee wins this game at home.

A Titans win would likely be good for the stat lines of both Adam Thielen and Derrick Henry. Thielen has been the Panthers’ best offensive player this year. He’s logged seven or more catches in seven of his last nine games, and the two he didn’t were 5- and 6-catch games. He should get plenty of targets against a poor Titans pass defense if the Panthers are trailing. Henry is coming off two down games (both were blowout losses), but in the three games prior he logged 75 or more rush yards. The Panthers have the league’s second-worst rush defense, and Henry could be in for a big day if the Titans are leading late.

Parlay Odds: +280

Jaguars @ Texans

In a pivotal AFC South matchup, I think Houston’s offense will have a solid day. C.J. Stroud hasn’t put up fewer than 335 yards in any of his past three games, and he’ll have a nice matchup this week against the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville has allowed 266 passing yards per game to opposing QBs – fifth-most in the NFL. Stroud also torched the Jaguars for 280 yards in Week 3.

Dalton Schultz will benefit from a big game out of Stroud. He has 16 catches for 233 yards over his past three games and has become one of Stroud’s favorite targets. Jacksonville has struggled to defend opposing tight ends this year, and I think Schultz should post a solid yardage number.

When the Jags are on offense, I think their running game could struggle. Houston allows 3.5 yards per carry to opposing RBs – second-fewest in the NFL. Travis Etienne is having a solid season, but he has 14 or fewer carries in 3 of his last 4 games. Etienne also averages 3.9 yards per carry this season, slightly below league average. I think Etienne stays under 67.5 yards on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +415

 Saints @ Falcons

This game has major implications for the NFC South title, and I think the Falcons will be able to pull off a win at home. They’ve lost three consecutive games, but each were one-possession losses. They’ve struggled with late-game execution and had some bad luck, but they’re due for some reversion. 

A Falcons win would likely see the Saints throwing more and rushing less. Alvin Kamara has just nine carries in each of the past two Saints games and the Falcons are a top-10 rush defense in yards per carry allowed. Over 50.5 yards is an aggressive line given Kamara’s limited rushing volume and the Falcons defense.

Juwan Johnson could see a nice day, however. Johnson has just 22 targets this year, but the Falcons have allowed 6.5 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, which is third-most in the NFL. Johnson could easily put up three catches if the Saints throw early and often. 

Parlay Odds: +385

 

Buccaneers @ Colts

Both of these teams have had some offensive duds in recent weeks, but I think this could be one of the highest-scoring games of Week 12. The Colts are coming off of a 10-6 win over the Patriots, but scored at least 27 points in each of the previous three games and have allowed their opponent to score 37 or more points in three of their past five games.

Tampa Bay hasn’t scored more than 20 in each of their past two games, but they’ve had a solid offense all season behind Baker Mayfield’s play, and they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

Michael Pittman Jr. should be able to have a solid day against that Bucs pass defense. Pittman has at least eight catches in four of his past five games, and 80 or more yards in three of his past five. Tampa Bay’s pass defense is near the bottom of the NFL in defending opposing WRs. Baker Mayfield has had 2+ passing TDs in 3 of his past 4 games, and can hit that mark again if this game becomes a shootout.

Parlay Odds: +425

Rams @ Cardinals

Arizona is looking at a lost season this year, but they’ve put up solid efforts in Kyler Murray’s first two games back from injury. They nearly pulled off a road upset in Houston last week after they knocked off the Falcons the week before. Los Angeles has lost three of their past four games, with the one win coming in a one-point game over Seattle this past week after Drew Lock had to come in for Geno Smith. Neither team is playing well, but I think the Cardinals get a win at home on Sunday. 

Arizona’s run defense has been bad this year: They allow the fourth most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Kyren Williams makes his return to action this week, and was running for 4.7 yards per carry on 16 carries per game before he got hurt. He should be in for a solid game.

Meanwhile, the Rams allow 57 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. Trey McBride has been a dominant piece in the Cardinals passing game in recent weeks, and should be able to break 50 receiving yards. 

Parlay Odds: +675

 Browns @ Broncos

These two teams have been playing well lately, and this is a pivotal game for AFC playoff positioning. Cleveland has won three consecutive games and snuck a 13-10 win against Pittsburgh this past week with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at quarterback. The Broncos have won four consecutive games and have been able to win behind their defense’s ability to force turnovers. Thompson-Robinson has thrown three interceptions this year and I expect the Broncos to win the turnover battle once again this week. That should be enough for them to win this game at home.

Amari Cooper has been playing well lately, but there hasn’t really been any wide receiver who has gone up against Patrick Surtain this season and put up a good game. I think he’ll stay under 44.5 receiving yards, especially in a cold weather game. The Broncos have tried to run the ball plenty in the red zone, and I expect them to continue that trend against the Browns’ great pass defense. Javonte Williams should have plenty of opportunities to score a TD.

Parlay Odds: +600

Chiefs @ Raiders

Since the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas has been a totally different team. They’re 3-0 against the spread in their past three games and have allowed opponents to score just 12.7 points per game over that stretch. This includes a solid game against Miami last week: The Raiders held the Dolphins’ dominant offense to just 20 points. The Chiefs have seen some uncharacteristic struggles on offense in the last few weeks. They’ve scored 21 or fewer points in each of their past three games. It’s a tall task for the Raiders to pull the upset, but I think Las Vegas’ defense plays well enough for them to cover, and for the total to stay Under 43.

Las Vegas’ one defensive weakness is against the run. They’re a bottom-five run defense in yards per game allowed to opposing RBs. Isiah Pacheco has 35 carries over the last two weeks. He should be able to go over 60 rushing yards if he sees similar volume on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +560

 Bills @ Eagles

  • D’Andre Swift 60+ Rush Yards (-125)
  • Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
  • Josh Allen Anytime TD (+135)

This is the best game of the week on paper, and features some fun offensive weapons on both sides. For the Eagles, the player most likely to have a big game is running back D’Andre Swift. He averages 4.7 yards per carry this year – a very solid mark given the volume he’s seen. Swift has double-digit carries in every game this season, and the Bills’ defense allows 4.4 yards per carry – higher than league average. Somewhere between 12-15 carries on Sunday should be enough for Swift to post 60-plus rushing yards.

The Bills struggled on offense in recent weeks. In particular, Stefon Diggs is coming off of back-to-back down games by his high standards. These games were against Pat Surtain and Sauce Gardner, arguably the two best cornerbacks in the NFL. This week, he should have a bounce-back against the Eagles defense which allows more receptions to opposing wide recievers than any other NFL team. Josh Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in four of his past games, and I love the +135 odds on him to score on Sunday in a game that should be high-scoring.

Parlay Odds: +650

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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