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NFL Week 13 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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It all started so well last week. I hit three Anytime Touchdown (ATD) bets in the first hour or so of last Sunday's slate. One of those was a Jonnu Smith First Touchdown (FTD) bet. It was the second straight week I hit on a longshot Smith FTD play. But things died down after that. I went 4-6 overall on ATD bets for the week, with Smith being my only FTD winner. The result was a modest profit of about 0.8U for the week. Let's keep the good vibes going with my ATD and FTD for the 10 games on the Week 13 Sunday main slate.  

As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

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Best NFL Week 13 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Nico Collins (WR - HOU)

I feel like I am splitting the baby a bit with my first Week 13 ATD and FTD pick. As I have mentioned in recent weeks, Texans running back Joe Mixon has reached the point where the sportsbooks have priced his touchdown props out of my preferred price range. If you want to spend -200 or more on Mixon, go nuts. I just can't get there. Instead, I am going to target Jacksonville's 32nd-ranked DVOA and EPA against the pass.

Because the Jaguars are so bad in pass defense, I am tempted to take a longer shot here. Based on the matchup, I like Tank Dell a lot this week and expect him to surpass his receiving yardage props in this game. But Dell has fewer touchdowns (two) in more games (11) than either Nico Collins (four touchdowns in seven games) or Stefon Diggs (three in eight). Dell's ATD and FTD odds are longer than Collins', but not by enough of a margin for me to bite. Therefore, I am going with Collins here. If I were going the longshot route, I would prefer tight end Dalton Schultz (+360/+1800 at DraftKings) to Dell.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Quentin Johnston (WR - LAC)

Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston let bettors down in a big way last week. The second-year wideout failed to catch a single pass in a favorable matchup versus Baltimore. But I think Johnston's goose egg has swung the perception (read: odds) too far in the opposite direction. Johnston has six touchdown catches this season. That is tied for fifth-best in the league. Johnston faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks 28th in DVOA versus the pass and has allowed the third-most touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers this year. More importantly, this matchup feeds right into Johnston's skill set from a schematic standpoint.

The Falcons play man coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL. They play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. You will be hard-pressed to find a wide receiver whose splits versus man and zone coverage are more pronounced than Johnston's. Johnston has three receptions for 26 yards and no touchdowns on 18 targets versus man coverage. When facing zone coverage, Johnston has 16 receptions for 294 yards and six touchdowns on 20 targets. This feels like the perfect storm for Johnston to help us cash out a longshot touchdown bet.

Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB - WAS)

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. has not gone two games without scoring this season, and he failed to find paydirt last week. Simple, right? Of course, that is not why I am backing Robinson Jr. this week, although it is an interesting nugget. Robinson Jr. has scored seven touchdowns in nine games, so it feels a bit odd to get his ATD line at plus money. Tennessee has been a solid run defense this year, but they have allowed a total of 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs. To be fair, six of those have come via the air, and Robinson Jr. is not a huge pass-catching threat. But Austin Ekeler is out with a concussion, which could result in more targets for Robinson Jr. He tied a season-high with three receptions in the only other game this season which Ekeler missed.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

James Conner (RB - ARI)

There were several directions I considered going with my ATD and FTD picks for this game. Both the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings have above-average offenses and defenses. Both offenses are versatile in that players at all skill positions are important parts of their offenses. Ultimately, I decided to go with Arizona running back James Conner. This is a bit of a narrative-driven pick on my part. I expect Arizona to come out early and try to establish the run after last week's loss in Seattle. Conner had just eight rushing yards, which was his lowest output since his rookie season back in 2017. He has just 19 total carries in his last two games, and Arizona had a bye week in between. Conner should get plenty of work early, making his FTD price a particularly tantalizing look.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Jonathan Taylor (RB - IND)

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for five scores in nine games this season and gets a favorable matchup in Week 13 when Indianapolis travels to New England to face the Patriots. New England ranks 25th in DVOA versus the run, including 30th in success rate versus power runs. The Patriots are tied with Dallas for the worst mark in the league, with a 67 percent touchdown rate allowed on runs inside the five-yard line. The one area New England has excelled in versus the run is limiting opposing quarterbacks to gain much on the ground. New England is one of four teams who have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this year. They have also given up the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing signal-callers. All roads seemingly lead back to Taylor here, so he is my preferred pick in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Jaylen Warren (RB - PIT)

I realize that Jaylen Warren has only scored once this year. But I still think there is value to be had for his ATD and FTD bets considering the matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals and Warren's role in Pittsburgh's offense. Cincinnati has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season to opposing running backs. Only four NFL teams have given up more rushing scores to enemy backs. Warren has earned 68 total touches in his last five games. He is still the 1B to Najee Harris' 1A as far as the workload in the backfield is concerned. But the odds suggest a wider disparity, and I just don't see it. I think Warren is an excellent value play this week.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets

Kenneth Walker III (RB - SEA)

The New York Jets have completely fallen apart recently, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. New York enters Week 13, ranking 20th in DVOA, including 25th versus the run. They have allowed five touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last five contests. All of this is good news for Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker III has scored eight times in nine games this season. He has also been a road warrior for Seattle this year, albeit in limited action. Walker III has scored six touchdowns in three road games, finding the end zone in all three outings away from Seattle. I expect more of the same on Sunday, so give me Kenneth Walker III to score at least one touchdown in this matchup.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

The Week 13 meeting between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints is among the most intriguing on the board. It projects as a close, high-scoring affair. Because of that, there are plenty of viable ATD and FTD candidates. I hit big on Taysom Hill in the Saints' last game, as he scored three times. The sportsbooks have adjusted Hill's pricing in a big way after that outing. You can still get him at +140 on Bet365, but I have seen his ATD line down to -128 at other books. I do not mind going that route if you want to ride the hot hand. However, I am instead going to pivot to Puka Nacua of the Rams.

Nacua is due for some positive touchdown regression, especially when compared to teammate Cooper Kupp. Since both players returned to the lineup several weeks ago, Kupp has six red-zone opportunities compared to Nacua's five. Kupp scored four times, while Nacua only scored one touchdown. The Saints rank first in the NFL in DVOA versus number-one receivers but just 25th versus number-two wideouts. You can argue who fits which role for Los Angeles, but both Rams receivers should be able to have good games. I prefer Nacua because New Orleans plays a high rate of man coverage, and Nacua has been dominant versus that defense this season. His 3.84 yards per route run is the fourth-highest among 91 players with at least 10 targets against man coverage. I think Nacua will find a way to get into the end zone this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Bucky Irving (RB - TB)

No NFL team has ceded more touchdowns to running backs this season than the Carolina Panthers. So whenever a team's primary running back is plus-odds to score, you have to consider it a +EV bet. I hit on Irving last week at +160, so the books have adjusted a bit. But I still think they are behind the curve here. Three different Buccaneers running backs ran for scores last week, so I cannot say that Irving has zero competition for carries. But he had three touches inside the 10-yard line last week, compared to two for Sean Tucker and one for Rachaad White. Tucker scored after Irving was tackled on the one-yard line following a 14-yard catch. He also fumbled on his other goal-line touch. Irving has scored in all four games with at least 10 carries, and I expect that to continue in Week 13.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens

A.J. Brown (WR - PHI)

The marquee matchup of Sunday's Week 13 slate pits the Philadelphia Eagles against the Baltimore Ravens. This game is a potential Super Bowl preview, as both teams are among the favorites in their respective conferences. Unfortunately, for my ATD and FTD purposes, this contest features two players on my "no-fly" list. The cheapest price I found for a Derrick Henry ATD is -190, while Saquon Barkley's best ATD price currently sits at -170. Both lines are at FanDuel if you want to go that route. But considering this game has the highest implied total on the board, I want a little more bang for my buck. So I am going to go with A.J. Brown of the Eagles.

No team has allowed more touchdowns or receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Baltimore Ravens have this season. Part of the reason for that is their struggles in man coverage. Baltimore ranks 21st in the NFL in first-down-plus-touchdown rate when they play man coverage. Brown is arguably the best receiver in the league at beating man coverage. I just mentioned that Puka Nacua's 3.84 YPRR was fourth-best among 91 players, with at least 10 targets versus man. Do you want to guess who is first on that list? That would be one Arthur Juan Brown. Brown is averaging 5.18 YPRR against man coverage this year. His upside in a potential shootout is plenty to make Brown my preferred ATD and FTD pick in this game.

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