NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let’s get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 13!
NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Jonathan Taylor injured his thumb and should miss some time. Zack Moss served as the starter for multiple weeks earlier in the season and got a ton of volume. He finished with 23 carries for 165 rushing yards and two TDs against the Titans in Week 5. He should receive a similar amount of touches this week against a defense that allows 110.8 rushing yards per game. Moss has 26 rush attempts in the red zone this season and averages 3.1 yards on those attempts. He has five total TDs in the red zone and should continue to pile stats until Taylor returns.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Odds: +1600 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Patriots will start Bailey Zappe, which makes me want to stay away from their entire offense. There is a reason Mac Jones was starting over him. The Chargers should be the team to score first, but they may be without Keenan Allen. Allen has not practiced this week due to a quadriceps injury, which makes his status unknown. Jalen Guyton should receive a nice bump in volume if Allen cannot play. Neither offense has inspired much confidence, and it looks bleaker without the Chargers’s alpha receiver. Guyton has five receptions for 45 yards and a TD through three games this season.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Odds: +1100 via Caesars Sportsbook
Sam LaPorta has had a great rookie season up to this point. He averages seven targets per game for an average of 9.8 yards per reception and has scored five times. The Saints have allowed the most touchdowns per game to the tight end position this season. Jared Goff has targeted LaPorta nine times in the red zone this season. He has six receptions for three TDs in that area this season and is entering a great matchup this week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +475 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Steelers looked like an improved offense in their first game without Matt Canada. The team finished with 421 yards last week and ran the ball efficiently. The Cardinals do not offer much resistance on defense. They allow 26.8 points and 140.1 rushing yards per game. They have surrendered 16 touchdowns on the ground this season. Najee Harris has 15 attempts inside the red zone and has scored four times. Harris and Jaylen Warren are splitting snaps, but Harris has a better chance to score first, given his red zone prowess.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jets’ offense is one of the worst in the league and is not any better with Tim Boyle under center. They rely on their defense every game, which stresses that side of the ball. They are weakest against the run, allowing 140.3 rushing yards per game, but have kept backs out of the end zone.
Bijan Robinson is finally starting to receive a full workload for the Falcons. He is also getting more red zone touches, where he has scored five times this season. He is as explosive as it gets and should have a decent chance to score first.
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders
Odds: +550 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Commanders have had trouble guarding deep passes this season. They also play man coverage at a high rate. That’s a terrible combination against Tyreek Hill. The Commanders have allowed 28 passing TDs this season and have only had six interceptions. Hill has had only two games this season without a TD and should get one this week. The Commanders are not good, and he is the leading wideout in the league; don’t overthink it.
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans
Odds: +750 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Tank Dell has been spectacular in his rookie season. He and C.J. Stroud have great chemistry and seem to find each other on a deep pass each week. Patrick Surtain will likely shadow Nico Collins this week as the Texans move Dell around to try and find a good matchup. Dell is averaging 15.1 yards per reception this season and has scored in four consecutive games. The Broncos have allowed 19 passing TDs this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The value of this prop is likely to dry up quickly. Rachaad White’s odds of scoring first are as low as +360 at some sportsbooks, and it is reasonable to say that his odds will get lower as the week progresses. The Panthers have struggled against the run all season. They allow 124.9 rushing yards per game and have surrendered 18 rushing TDs this season. White is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season and contributes in the passing game. The dual-threat back could score either way against this subpar defense.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Eagles have struggled to defend in the secondary this season. They allowed 255.7 passing yards per game and surrendered 23 passing TDs. They also only have six interceptions. Brandon Aiyuk has a big-play opportunity in this matchup. He averages 19.6 yards per reception, which is second in the league behind Noah Brown. He does have a downside in the red zone, where Deebo Samuel gets the touches. Still, Kyle Shanahan should have a solid game plan against this secondary, and it likely involves some deep shots to Aiyuk.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams
Odds: +425 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Browns will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson if he can clear concussion protocol and Joe Flacco if he cannot. There are no appealing options to score first on that team. The Rams should lean on Williams this week. The Browns allow 105.9 rushing yards per game and rank first in passing yards allowed per game. Williams had 16 carries for 143 yards in his first game back and found the end zone twice. He has been outstanding this season and should continue to be in this game.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 13)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
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- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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