NFL Week 13 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Welcome back to my Week 13 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.
Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).
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NFL Week 13 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Significant Overnight Line Moves & Notes Since the Open
SEA moved from (+7) to (+9) at DAL
Safe to say we can attribute this movement to team momentum. After a 5-2 start, the Seahawks lost three of the next four games and frankly looked pretty bad doing it. That said, the competition was stiff - but that’s not about to change against Dallas. Since their Week 7 bye, the Cowboys have led the league in Points Scored (38.6), EPA/Play (+0.22), and Drive Distance (44.2). Dak Prescott is currently operating on another level as he enters the MVP conversation but we know there’s one question still swirling in the social media streets; can the Boys beat a team with a winning record?
SF moved from (-1) to (-3) at PHI
Having this upcoming clash of the Titans handicapped closer to (PK) I must admit my surprise to see betting markets pushing so hard against the NFC’s top seed playing at home. With so many season-long implications, this game’s as close to a playoff matchup as we can get in early December - another reason I’m struggling to digest the multi-point move. You don’t have to convince me that San Fran’s excellent; they’re easily the best team when calculating balance on both sides of the ball in regard to EPA. With all their skill positions (including OL Trent Williams) healthy it’s pretty hard to bet against Shanahan’s Niners, but if this actually crosses a field goal I may reconsider the Eagles.
NFL Week 13 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves
DET should move to (-5) from (-4) at NO
We’re piecing together a pretty strong track record of using any outliers in our cost-per-point analysis to portend line moves thus far (let’s keep it up). Using the Y-axis on our image below, the (-4) Detroit line sticks out like a sore thumb tucked under the sixes at ~$24/point with a $15 intra-game difference between teams. Remember the higher the spread, the wider both the bid and the difference between teams become. Therefore using this methodology there’s a pretty clear disparity between the current line and where it should close. I’ll get into the rest of my analytic reasoning in the Best Bet section below. I feel very strongly there are several points worth of CLV available here.
NFL Week 13 Favorites With Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS
- IND (-115) at TEN
NFL Week 13 Underdogs With Value ATS vs. on the Moneyline
- TEN (+1) vs IND
As usual, our cost-per-point analysis identifies value in games with spreads of three or fewer points. Remember that any -110 standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of our calculus. In these examples, betting slight favorites to cover ATS will theoretically save you in terms of total risk, but it's costing you crucial implied probability. To me, the games themselves are too variant, and the samples of NFL games we deal with are too low to pass on a chance to maximize outcomes.
In plain English, play it safe, and don't be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads. Bookmakers list these games within a point as a soft admission the winner is anyone’s guess. We are nearly halfway through the season, and just over 10% (19 of 180) of all games this year have been decided by two points or fewer. These tightly anticipated games draw comparable volume as any other game, except with our simple strategy you can avoid getting caught up on the margins.
Week 13 Best Bet: DET (-4) at NO To Win 1 Unit
Record YTD (3-6-1, -3.75u)
As described earlier, everything lines up really nicely for the Lions this weekend in New Orleans from a value perspective. I’m guessing the public’s feeling a bit of hesitancy to back Detroit after a tough Thanksgiving Day loss on the national scene. That won’t stop me from leaning into the perceived value and betting on the much better, and healthy team. Despite the loss to the Packers, the Lions offense is humming over the last three weeks - top 3 in Points/Game (31.3), Yards/Game (445.0), Yards/Play (6.6), EPA/Play (+0.16), Average Drive Distance (43.7), 1st Downs/Drive (2.3), and Yards/Rush (5.4). Oh, and the Saints just placed star CB Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve.
While not as impactful on the defensive side during that same span, I’m not sure how much it will even matter for Dan Campbell’s squad on the road. The injury bug hit the Saints fast and furious, decimating their WR room all at once. Michael Thomas (knee) is on the IR, Rashid Shaheed missed practice with an injured quad, and star WR Chris Olave left their last game with a concussion. Despite practicing on Wednesday, I have my doubts he will play given the league’s track record with brain injuries this year. I mentioned the Lions’ ability to run the ball, which I believe will be the tipping point in this game. New Orleans (who is also missing pieces on the D-line) has allowed 176.5 rushing yards per game since Week 10, dead last in that span. Mark this line to close around six as the market digests just how bad the injury situation is for New Orleans.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football
- NFL Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions
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