NFL Week 13 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (49ers vs. Bills)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 13 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 13’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Niner Gang and Bills Mafia. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.

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Sunday Night Football Primer

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills

Sides

  • The Bills have won nine of their last 10 home games.
  • The Bills have won 15 of their last 18 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 19-6 as a favorite since the start of last season and 13-12 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 26 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 13 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Bills are 13-2 straight up and 8-7 ATS at home since the start of 2023.
  • Bills are 8-6 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 16 of the 49ers’ last 23 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 13 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last 10 games following a win.

Totals

  • Eight of the 49ers’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-3 toward the over at home, averaging under 48 points per game.
  • Four of the 49ers’ last five games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bills’ last eight home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 5-0 toward the over this season (55 points per game).
  • Six of the Bills’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bills’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line. (16 of their last 22 road games)
  • Nine of the Bills’ last 10 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Buffalo is 5-0 toward the over at home this season (54.2 points per game).

NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Overall:

Oh, San Francisco. Things are starting to bottom out for last year's Super Bowl runner-up. Injuries continue to pile up, with quarterback Brock Purdy questionable (although expected) to play in this game. With the 49ers’ playoff hopes on life support, things seem like they will only get worse before they get better.

But based on the seven-point movement to a 6.5/5.5 spread, this doesn’t looks like another week of Brandon Allen and his broken thumb under center. Kyle Shanahan expects Purdy to play. We’ll see if he is right or not.

But to make matters worse, snow showers are in the forecast, with an accumulation of 1 to 3 inches in Buffalo per NFLWeather.com as of Saturday morning.

The total dropped to 44.5 after opening close to 46.5, but this is the same line movement we saw last week when Purdy got ruled out against the Packers. However given the positive development for Purdy’s availability and the weather (compared to earlier this week) the total has not adjusted.

So, at this time, I won't overreact to the weather on the game total. But it would make sense that Mother Nature would impose its will to regress Buffalo's perfect O/U record to a 5-1 mark. Keep that in mind as we approach Sunday night regarding the total. Wind doesn’t seem to be a huge factor, which generally drives down points.

Besides, the bigger factor still comes down to Purdy. Kyle Shanahan doesn't perform well when he doesn't have HIS quarterback. We saw this over the years with Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers won with Jimmy G, and they were terrible when he missed games.

 

As I pointed out last week, the 49ers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with winning records.

San Fran doesn't perform well as an underdog (0-2 even with Purdy as their QB), which is uncharted waters for them. They are 0-3 straight up as an underdog (1-2 ATS).

Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a bye week, winners of six straight games. They are ready to hit their stride into the postseason.

According to Next Gen Stats, Josh Allen is 19-2 in December & January regular season games since 2020 (10-0 since 2022). Allen leads the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns & 56 total touchdowns in such regular season games since 2020.

Continue to fade the Fraudy Niners as we have done all season. It's over for them. Cooked like a Thanksgiving Turkey.

But when it comes to the total, I think the bet on the over is very live given the generally positive news we have regarding Purdy and the weather. Think there’s value on the over at 44.5

Props:

The Bills’ defense allows the most yards, catches, and targets to RBs in the passing game this season. The offense is going to go through Christian McCaffrey - for better or worse.

James Cook has been very boom-or-bust as a rusher this season. Five games with 70-plus rushing yards compared to five games with 45 or fewer yards. Given that SF has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy pts to RBs in the last four weeks (allowing over 100 rushing yards per game). The Niners have also faced the third-highest run TD rate this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have recorded a league-high 31.4% missed tackle rate against the run this season, their highest in any season since 2018 by 6.9%.

Cook is going to COOK in the rushing department this week. The Bills rushing success could trickle over to their No. 2 RB, Ray Davis. Both of his rushing TDs have come in games where Cook ALSO scored this season.

My Picks: