A pair of early First Touchdown (FTD) hits got the ball rolling for me last week, but things leveled off after that. Overall, I hit on four out of 10 Anytime Touchdown (ATD) picks, including the two first touchdown plays. All of the hits had relatively short odds, so I finished in the red by about half a unit for the week.
Let's get back in the black this week. Below are my favorite candidates for anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets for all 10 of the Sunday afternoon games.
As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
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Best NFL Week 14 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
All wagers are 0.5 units
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The anytime touchdown market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View anytime touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
- Anytime TD Odds: -138 at Bet365
- First TD Odds: +450 at Fanatics
I am beginning my Week 14 anytime touchdown and first touchdown portfolio with a bit of a chalky selection. But I think there is still plenty of value in backing De'Von Achane of the Dolphins. Achane has scored nine times in 12 games this season. However, that does not tell the whole story. He was held out of the end zone in all four games quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed earlier in the season with a concussion.
That means Achane has scored nine times in eight games alongside Tagovailoa. For reference, Saquon Barkley has scored 13 times in 12 games, and his best anytime touchdown price is -275. Sure, Achane's Week 14 matchup isn't quite as good as Barkley's. But the New York Jets rank 23rd in the NFL in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against the run. This is a solid spot for Achane to continue his scoring streak.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
- Anytime TD Odds: +215 at Caesars Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1000 at Caesars Sportsbook
If you want to play it safe with either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts, be my guest. I just cannot get there considering the pricing. The best anytime touchdown price for Barkley is -275 and the best price for Hurts is -175.
Therefore, I am going to pivot. I strongly considered one of Carolina's pass-catchers here. Bryce Young has resembled an NFL quarterback in recent weeks, and the Panthers will likely have to throw quite a bit in this game. I do not mind taking a shot with Xavier Legette or Adam Thielen. But ultimately, I decided to go with DeVonta Smith.
Smith has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but he is good to go for Sunday's game. Smith has more enticing odds than fellow Eagles wideout A.J. Brown despite similar numbers. Brown and Smith have each scored four times in nine games this season. Carolina plays zone coverage at a top-10 clip this season. Both receivers excel regardless of coverage scheme.
Smith does have three touchdowns on 201 routes run versus zone coverage, compared to two for Brown on 177 routes run. Brown's best anytime touchdown price is +125 on FanDuel Sportsbook, so I'll grab Smith at a friendlier price instead.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Anytime TD Odds: +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +650 at BetMGM
I am so tempted to play Pittsburgh's defense/special teams for a touchdown considering the Jameis Winston effect. But I ended up going a more conventional route with George Pickens. Pickens has scored three times while averaging over 80 receiving yards in six games since Russell Wilson took over as the team's starting quarterback. He also should have a favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland ranks 27th in the league in DVOA versus the passing game. One of their issues has been defending in man coverage. The Browns play man at the fourth-highest rate but rank well below average in yards per reception in that defense. Pickens averages 3.38 yards per route run against man coverage this season, which is among the best in the league. That should give him enough of an edge to score a touchdown this week.
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Anytime TD Odds: +120 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Mike Evans is a prime candidate to score this week when the Buccaneers host the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas ranks dead last (and by a significant margin) in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) team coverage metric. Evans has scored seven times in nine games and should continue to earn the lion's share of targets in Tampa Bay's passing offense. He has at least 1,000 receiving yards in all 10 of his NFL seasons.
After missing three games earlier this year due to a hamstring injury, Evans is well off that pace in 2024. He will have to post some huge yardage days to have a chance to get there. A few additional targets should increase his chances of scoring in this game. Considering the matchup and price, this is one of my favorite Week 14 anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
- Anytime TD Odds: +210 at Fanatics
- First TD Odds: +1000 at Fanatics
Touchdowns can be a funny thing. Tennessee Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has eight touchdown grabs on the season despite just 20 receptions and 38 targets. Compare that to a player like Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, who has yet to catch a touchdown pass despite ranking eighth in the NFL with 73 receptions.
I tend to favor players who get more volume when I place my anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets. Even though Westbrook-Ikhine has been a wagon, I just cannot pull the trigger on his touchdown props this week.
I do like the matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league-worst pass defense. But I lean toward Calvin Ridley instead. Ridley has more than twice as many receptions and targets as Westbrook-Ikhine. Both wide receivers are similarly priced this week, so give me Ridley's volume over Westbrook-Ikhine's hyper-efficiency.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
- Anytime TD Odds: +140 at BetMGM
- First TD Odds: +650 at Fanatics
Since taking the lead in the New York Giants backfield, rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has scored four times in eight games. He has alternated scoring and not in all eight games, but I am hoping Tracy Jr. can buck that trend and score for a second straight game on Sunday.
The matchup is about as good as it gets. The New Orleans Saints rank last in the NFL in DVOA versus the run and have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Only three teams have served up more rushing scores to the position. Tracy Jr. has had some fumbling issues in recent weeks, but a clean ledger last week should earn him some extra looks, which should enable him to find the end zone in this game.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
- Anytime TD Odds: +220 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1100 at Fanatics
The Minnesota Vikings enter Week 14 having allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL. They rank first or second in defensive DVOA against both the run and pass. Given their defensive prowess along with the recent struggles of Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, I have to go with the Vikings side here. The question is which Vikings player to back.
Conventional wisdom may say to take Justin Jefferson. However, I am leaning towards Jordan Addison in this matchup. The Falcons play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Jefferson is outpacing Addison by a nearly 2-to-1 margin in receptions versus zone. But Addison has been the better touchdown bet against this coverage. Addison has scored six times versus zone coverage compared to just two for Jefferson. I like Addison as a value anytime touchdown and first touchdown play this week.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at Bet365
- First TD Odds: +1000 at Bet365
The matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, these teams played just two weeks ago, so there is recent familiarity to consider. There was only one offensive touchdown scored in that game. That was a touchdown catch by Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle also scored on an interception return.
The other reason this matchup is intriguing is that both defenses are very similar in terms of touchdowns allowed to each position group:
- Quarterbacks: Arizona: 3, Seattle: 2
- Running Backs: Arizona: 10, Seattle: 9
- Wide Receivers: Arizona: 9, Seattle: 12
- Tight Ends: Arizona: 2, Seattle: 3
There does not appear to be a huge edge on either side of the ball here. Seahawks starting running back Kenneth Walker is looking like he may not play. He leads Seattle with seven scores this season. The books have responded by adjusting the anytime touchdown and first touchdown lines for Zach Charbonnet, sucking out most of his value.
Cardinals' rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. paces the club with seven touchdowns this year. He earned a season-high 12 targets while scoring last week. I expect that usage to continue and I believe it will lead to Harrison Jr. scoring a touchdown in this game.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +950 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are both run-funnel defenses. However, both teams could be without their top two running backs heading into their Week 14 matchup. The Bears have already ruled out No. 2 back Roschon Johnson, while lead back D'Andre Swift is questionable.
San Francisco placed both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve (IR) this week. That leaves rookie Isaac Guerendo as the last man standing in the 49ers backfield. He is a decent bet for a score, but the books have already nuked his pricing to a level I am not necessarily comfortable with.
Therefore, I am pivoting to Deebo Samuel. It would not surprise me to see Samuel more involved in the rushing attack, and he has plenty of upside as a receiver as well.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
- Anytime TD Odds: +210 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1300 at Fanatics
My final Week 14 anytime touchdown and first touchdown pick is Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills. This may be a bit of a longshot, as he has failed to score in eight straight games. However, Los Angeles has given up 16 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this year. Only Houston and Baltimore (both of whom have a bye this week) have allowed more.
Los Angeles also ranks last in the league in first-down-plus-touchdown rate when playing zone coverage. This is significant because they play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. It is also important because Shakir thrives against zone.
Shakir has earned a 29.5% target share against zone coverage. Even more impressive is that he has secured 85.7% of those targets. I like the odds we are getting on Shakir here given his skill set and the favorable matchup.
