NFL Week 14 Betting Systems Picks & Predictions (2024)
There are so many profitable betting systems in the NFL this year. After reviewing many of them, I’ve added my favorite three bets for Week 14 below.
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Week 14 Best NFL Betting System Plays
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFL Pass TDs Under Trends
The “NFL Pass TDs Under Trends’ has added a 35.6% ROI over the last 39 bets. It’s earned nearly 14 units of profit and has won almost 85% of the time!
This system looks for quarterbacks to go under their passing touchdowns. It also requires each quarterback to have hit the prop line in no more than one of the last five games, two of the previous ten games, five of the previous 15 games, and six of the last 20 games.
Geno Smith fits the script. Surprisingly, Smith has added two passing touchdowns in only 17% of games this season. Arizona also ranks 9th in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed per game.
Smith hasn’t had an amazing season this year. Take advantage.
Pick: Geno Smith Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-121)
NFL – Rush Yards Under
The NFL-Rush Yards Unders earned a 45% ROI over 181 bets. It has added a win percentage of beyond 77% and produced 81.46 units of profit.
This system looks for players to go Under their rushing yards with a cost of -150 to +300. That player also can’t have hit the Over in more than one of the last five games and three of the previous ten games.
Russell Wilson of the Steelers fits the script. He’s not a running back, but he has rushing props that we can add.
Wilson has earned at least eight rushing yards in only 17% of games this season. He’s also hit this line in only three of his last ten games, just as the model wants.
While the Browns rank 24th in rushing yards allowed to quarterback, Wilson isn’t much of a mobile quarterback at this stage in his career. The most obvious running plays go to Justin Fields now.
Pick: Russell Wilson Under 7.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
NFL Recs – Low Overs
This final system, “NFL Recs – Low Overs,” looks for players to go under in receptions. The criteria are simple. A receiver needs to have hit the over in no more than one of the last five games and three of the last ten games.
Cole Kmet, a tight end of the Chicago Bears, has added at least four receptions in only 33% of games this season. He’s also facing a San Francisco defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in receptions allowed to tight ends.
Kmet has a receptions prop of 3.5. But Caleb Williams has been highly inconsistent this season and sometimes doesn’t even earn many completions in a game.
Let’s take Kmet to go under his reception prop. He’s struggled head-to-head and hasn’t been very productive throughout the year.
Pick: Cole Kmet Under 3.5 Receptions (-170)