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NFL Week 14 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread.

In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

    Week 14 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • After their dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers extended their lead as the league’s top-rated team. The 49ers, when healthy, are the best team in the NFL by a long shot. Say what you will about Brock Purdy, but he’s been able to captain the league’s best offense by several metrics while also being supported by an elite defense. It’s not a shock that they’re also the current Super Bowl favorite.
    • I still find it very confusing as to how the Chargers land here with the ninth-highest rating. I understand that Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but their offense has been broken lately. They’ve failed to record over 20 points in a game the last three weeks and have one of the worst defenses in the league.

    Week 14 Matchups

    • The Colts-Bengals matchup might have some of the most intrigue for me in the early slate on Sunday, even though both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. They are two teams on the fringe of playoff contention and have a path to a Wild Card spot, if not more. With Jake Browning’s impressive performance on “Monday Night Football,” the Bengals went from 2.5-point underdogs to just 1-point underdogs. That said, the ratings suggest that there’s still some value on them and that there is an opportunity to bet some alternate lines for the Bengals to cover more than just one point.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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