Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Early Bets and Trends

For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I've written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I've noticed for the upcoming week.

I'm not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.

So here are some trends for Week 14 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Note: For more of my early Week 14 bets, check out the BettingPros App.

All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Dec. 4. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Check out our Vikings at Lions matchup page.

• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
• Location: Ford Field
• Consensus Spread: Lions +1

Vikings at Lions: 2022 ATS Records

• Vikings ATS: 6-5-1 (5.1% ROI)
• Lions ATS: 8-4 (28.4% ROI)

Detroit Lions Trends

• HC Dan Campbell: 18-9 ATS (27.7% ROI) as underdog
• HC Dan Campbell: 7-2 ATS (48.7% ROI) in division

Vikings at Lions: Early Bet

• Best Line: Lions +1.5 (-118, FanDuel)
• Early Projection: Lions Pick’Em

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +3.

If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Panthers at Seahawks matchup page.

• Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
• Location: Lumen Field
• Consensus Spread: Seahawks -6

Panthers at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records

• Panthers ATS: 6-6 (-3.8% ROI)
• Seahawks ATS: 6-6 (-4.8% ROI)

Seattle Seahawks Trends

• QB Geno Smith: 9-6 ATS (15.3% ROI) with Seahawks
• QB Geno Smith: 5-2 ATS (37.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks
• HC Pete Carroll: 57-41-3 ATS (13.2% ROI) at home

Panthers at Seahawks: Early Bet

• Best Line: Seahawks -5.5 (-110, DraftKings)
• Early Projection: Seahawks -7.25

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of -6.5.

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New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Patriots at Cardinals matchup page.

• Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 12, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
• Location: State Farm Stadium
• Consensus Spread: Cardinals +1.5

Patriots at Cardinals: 2022 ATS Records

• Patriots ATS: 6-5-1 (4.1% ROI)
• Cardinals ATS: 6-6 (-4.7% ROI)

Arizona Cardinals Trend

• HC Kliff Kingsbury: 23-11-2 ATS (29.5% ROI) as underdog

Patriots at Cardinals: Early Bet

• Best Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
• Early Projection: Lions Pick’Em

Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +2.

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