NFL Week 14 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Dec 05, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 14 odds and trends:

NFL Week 14 Early Odds & Trends

Patriots @ Steelers - Thursday, Dec. 7 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PIT -6; O/U 30

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 2-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 4-16 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 5-15 ATS
Previous 24 games following a loss: 10-13-1 ATS
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 12-17-1 ATS
Previous 32 conference games: 13-18-1 ATS

Steelers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 19 games following a loss: 12-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 33 conference games: 19-13-1 ATS
Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 85-95-2 ATS

Best bet: Patriots +6

While I would love to advocate for the under of the hilariously low total of 30, I like the Patriots to cover this number as road underdogs of nearly a TD against a Pittsburgh team with a huge question mark at QB. We just saw the Patriots push this exact same spread on Sunday without scoring a point, and they might just do it again.

Buccaneers @ Falcons - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - ATL -2.5; O/U 39.5

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games vs Atlanta: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 to the Over
Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 22-3-3 ATS
Baker Mayfield (Career): 33-47-1 ATS

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 15 divisional games: 9-6 ATS
Previous 18 games following a win: 5-12-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-13 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS
Arthur Smith as a favorite (Career): 8-11 ATS

Best bet: Falcons -2.5

Atlanta has surprisingly taken care of business against the NFC South under head coach Arthur Smith, and they walked out of Tampa Bay with a win earlier this season despite multiple red zone blunders and turnovers. I like them to cover this short spread at home and tighten their grip on the NFC South.

Texans @ Jets - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - HOU -6.5; O/U 34.5

Texans trends:

Previous 12 games following a win: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 5-14-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 13-17-1 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 28 games following a loss: 12-16 ATS
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 13-16-1 ATS
Previous 32 conference games: 14-18 ATS
Robert Saleh as an underdog (Career): 16-23 ATS

Best bet: Under 34.5

The Jets have a rotating door of three well below-average QBs, none of which have showcased the ability to sustain any offensive success. Combining that with the fact that their defense is still among the elite and both teams trend heavily toward the under in these situations leads me to believe that this game will stay below the point total.

Lions @ Bears - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -3.5; O/U 42

Lions trends:

Previous 15 divisional games: 11-4 ATS
Previous 18 games following a win: 12-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 15-5 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 ATS
Dan Campbell (Career): 34-23-1 ATS

Bears trends:

Previous 12 games following a win: 3-9 ATS
Previous 16 divisional games: 4-12 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 home games: 5-13-2 ATS
Matt Eberflus (Career): 11-18 ATS
Justin Fields (Career): 11-18-1 ATS

Best bet: Lions -3.5

The weather is forecasted to be very windy in Chicago on Sunday, which I believe is depressing this line and providing value on the Lions, who are too short of a favorite for the second consecutive week. Additionally, Detroit has been an ATS machine in the division under Dan Campbell, while the Bears have been the complete opposite. I'll lay the points with the Lions as short-road favorites in this one.

Jaguars @ Browns - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -3; O/U 36.5

Jaguars trends:

Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 3-6 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 8-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
Previous 19 games following a win: 12-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 34 conference games: 20-14 ATS

Browns trends:

Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 1-6 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 8-0-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-5-2 to the Under
Previous 32 conference games: 13-19 ATS

Best bet: Browns +3

Jacksonville has been running hot lately, but I see this as a tough spot for them on a short week of preparation, traveling to Cleveland to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL. I like the Browns to keep it close, especially if Trevor Lawrence canâ€™t go, so I'll take the points with them as a home underdog of a field goal.

Colts @ Bengals - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -2.5; O/U 40.5

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 19 games following a win: 11-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 29 non-divisional games: 18-11 ATS
Shane Steichen as a favorite (Career): 5-1 ATS

Bengals trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 16 games following a loss: 9-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 34 non-divisional games: 23-10-1 ATS
Previous 36 conference games: 21-15 ATS

Best bet: Colts -2.5

Shane Steichen is potentially the leader in the clubhouse for NFL Coach of the Year, as he currently has the Colts positioned in the AFC playoff picture, despite the loss of Anthony Richardson early in the season. I like them to keep rolling against a Bengals team dealing with the loss of Joe Burrow. I'll take the Colts to cover this spread as short road favorites.

Rams @ Ravens - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -7; O/U 43

Rams trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 2-6-2 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 15 non-conference games: 5-8-2 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-7-1 to the Under
Previous 25 games following a win: 10-15 ATS

Ravens trends:

Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games following a BYE: 13-7 ATS

Best bet: Under 43

Both of these teams have trended extremely heavily to the under in recent seasons despite the firepower present on both sides of the ball. I'll back the under trends in a game where I expect Baltimore to be able to dictate the pace of play and lean on their running game.

Panthers @ Saints - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -5; O/U 38.5

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games vs New Orleans: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 31 games following a loss: 10-19-2 ATS
Bryce Young (Career): 1-8-2 ATS

Saints trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 1-8-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 home games: 2-8 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 5-9-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 4-15-1 ATS

Best bet: Panthers +5

The Panthers showed some life in their first game without Frank Reich, covering against division rival Tampa Bay in a game that I see playing out remarkably similar to this one with a comparable spread. New Orleans shouldn't be this big of a favorite against anyone, so I'll back Carolina to keep their divisional matchup close in consecutive weeks.

Vikings @ Raiders - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIN -3; O/U 40

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 7-2-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 7-2-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games following a BYE: 13-7 to the Over

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 games following a BYE: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 14-6 to the Over

Best bet: Raiders +3

Joshua Dobbs was exposed in his most recent start against the Bears, and the Raiders have looked much more competitive and competent since the firing of Josh McDaniels. I'll take the points with the Raiders to cover this spread of a field goal as home underdogs.

Seahawks @ 49ers - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -10.5; O/U 47

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games vs San Francisco: 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 17 divisional games: 7-10 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 49-34-3 ATS

49ers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 17 divisional games: 12-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 35 games following a win: 23-12 ATS
Brock Purdy (Career): 15-5 ATS

Best bet: Over 47

The 49ers have been an offensive wagon at home in recent seasons, and these teams have combined to put up pretty big point totals in the past. I'll trust the 49ersâ€™ offense to keep rolling and expect the Seahawks to put up some points of their own to get over this point total.

Broncos @ Chargers - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAC -3; O/U 43

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 6-9 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 26 games following a loss: 11-14-1 ATS
Sean Payton as an underdog (Career): 49-31-2 ATS

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 14 divisional games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-5-2 to the Under

Best bet: Broncos +3

While the Chargers covered the closing number against the Patriots on Sunday, it required pitching a shutout against a backup QB, as they did not score an offensive TD. I don't trust them as favorites at any number against any team, especially against this Broncos squad that has been playing well down the stretch.

Bills @ Chiefs - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -2.5; O/U 47.5

Bills trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-4 ATS; 8-2 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 6-4 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 11 games with rest advantage: 4-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 13-16-2 ATS

Chiefs trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 36 conference games: 15-21 ATS

Best bet: Chiefs -2.5

Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less has become an auto-bet for me; I'll take the Chiefs to cover this spread of under a field goal at home.

Eagles @ Cowboys - Sunday, Dec. 10 - 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -3.5; O/U 53

Eagles trends:

Previous 10 games vs Dallas: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-7 ATS
Previous 12 games following a loss: 5-7 ATS
Jalen Hurts (Career): 27-20-2 ATS

Cowboys trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 9-1 to the Over
Previous 11 games with rest advantage: 8-3 ATS
Previous 16 divisional games: 12-4 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 108-72-4 ATS

Best bet: Eagles +3.5

I like the Eagles to bounce back and have a much better performance after getting embarrassed on their home field. I'll back them as underdogs in this spot, especially as the spread is currently north of a field goal.

Titans @ Dolphins - Monday, Dec. 11 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -13.5; O/U 47

Titans trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Will Levis (Career): 2-4 ATS
Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 27-20-1 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 8-2 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 14-6 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 25 games following a win: 16-9 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 20-12-1 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 29-17 ATS

Best bet: Dolphins -13.5

Miami's explosiveness on offense and defensive improvement since the return of Jalen Ramsey has turned them into a juggernaut that has no problem covering large spreads against inferior teams. I don't see this game playing out much differently than their game against Washington last week, so I'll lay the big number with the Dolphins at home.

Packers @ Giants - Monday, Dec. 11 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - GB -6.5; O/U 37

Packers trends:

Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 8-2 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 26 games following a win: 16-10 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 18-13 ATS
Previous 32 conference games: 20-12 ATS
Matt LaFleur (Career): 45-32 ATS

Giants trends:

Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 3-5 ATS
Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 14-4-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-5-1 to the Under
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 14-8-1 ATS

Best bet: Giants +6.5

The Tommy DeVito-led Giants have looked much more competent in recent weeks, and the Giants have been great in this spot as underdogs under Brian Daboll. I'll take the points with them at home, coming off a bye and getting nearly a TD on the spread.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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