NFL Week 14 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 14 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| TB | ATL | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 39 | 39.5 | 0.5 |
| LAR | BAL | -7.5 | -7 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 40 | -4.5 |
| DET | CHI | 4 | 3 | -1 | 45.5 | 44 | -1.5 |
| IND | CIN | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 | 40.5 | 44 | 3.5 |
| JAX | CLE | 3 | -3.5 | -6.5 | 37.5 | 30.5 | -7 |
| PHI | DAL | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 51.5 | 52 | 0.5 |
| BUF | KC | -3 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 48 | 48.5 | 0.5 |
| DEN | LAC | -3 | -2.5 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 44 | -0.5 |
| MIN | LV | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 40 | -0.5 |
| TEN | MIA | -13 | -13 | 0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
| CAR | NO | -5.5 | -5 | 0.5 | 38.5 | 37.5 | -1 |
| GB | NYG | 6 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 38 | 37 | -1 |
| HOU | NYJ | 6 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 36.5 | 33 | -3.5 |
| NE | PIT | -6 | -6 | 0 | 32 | 30 | -2 |
| SEA | SF | -11.5 | -10.5 | 1 | 46 | 47 | 1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 14 Spread Movement Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: +3 ?' -3.5
The biggest factor attributing to the line move is Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawerence’s injury status. Lawrence rolled his ankle during Monday night’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals and it initially did not look promising. It seems that he avoided the worst and he was actually participating in practice on Thursday. That said, the line does not indicate that he is going to play. Another factor that the Jaguars need to consider is the weather. Current forecast calls for wind and rain, which may be enough of a reason to hold Lawrence out due to the injured ankle.
Houston Texans at New York Jets: +6 ?' +4.5
After missing the past two weeks due to being benched, quarterback Zach Wilson will regain the huddle in Week 14 against the Texans. Apparently, the market seems to think this is an “upgrade†over recently released Tim Boyle. The Jets haven’t scored more than 13 points in six straight games, so it would be hard to imagine a big turnaround. The Texans did suffer a significant injury on offense last week. Breakout rookie wide receiver Tank Dell was lost for the season, so it remains to be seen if the offense will be as effective.
NFL Week 14 Total Movement Analysis
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens: 44.5 ?' 40
The total has been brought down by the rainy and windy weather forecasted for Sunday in Baltimore. Normally, potential bad weather can be overplayed, but when there is a 4.5-point movement down, it is usually for good reason. This should only help the Ravens elite defense slow down a Rams offense that is coming off 37 and 36 point efforts the last two weeks. The conditions will be much different outside of the domes that were played in and the Ravens defense should have the advantage. The Ravens are currently 7-point favorites.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 40.5 ?' 44
The 3.5-point movement upward likely has something to do with the way Bengals QB Jake Browning looked on Monday night in Jacksonville. In only his second start, it was a stellar performance that saw the Bengals score 34 points and Browning throw for 354 yards. On the Colts’ side, they also come off an high-scoring win in overtime against Tennessee. The line indicates that both offenses should be able to continue their success into this week.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 14)
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA PrizePicks Player Predictions
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