Welcome back to my Week 14 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction.
Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).
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NFL Week 14 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Significant Overnight Line Moves & Notes Since the Open
LAR moved from (+5) to (+7) at BAL
Despite the fact the line opening at (+5) felt soft, I was still surprised with the force it blew through six points on its way to a full touchdown. Matthew Stafford’s looked great lately, passing for seven total TDs in the last two weeks alone. He’s currently playing at the top of his game and just hung three passing touchdowns on the Browns defense for the first time this season. Perhaps we’re getting some narrative-based action toward the Ravens. They’re coming off a bye with the Rams having to travel cross-country for a 1pm game. Honestly to me, that stuff’s flimsy at best. I’ve been especially impressed by both phases of the Ram’s defense since their Week 10 bye. They’ve kept opposing offenses to only 4.6 Yards/Play and 76.0 Rushing Yards/Game while keeping opposing quarterbacks to a 57.4% Completion Rate.
SEA moved from (+12.5) to (+10.5) at SF
Hard to believe we’d see movement away from the Niners after a statement-game Sunday resulting in a total beatdown of the Eagles in their own backyard. San Fran made its case for the best team in the league and you won’t hear me preparing a counter. The thing is, Seattle may have just found their own groove on offense versus Dallas last week. Geno Smith flashed the arm talent that earned his most recent contract with one of only fourteen QB games this season of +330 Pass Yards and +3 TDs. I can’t see this moving much more; it’s hard to envision SF as less than a 10-point favorite to anyone.
NFL Week 13 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves
HOU should move to (-6) from (-5.5) at NYJ
While it’s entirely possible the QB shakeup in New York moves this line during editing, I can’t imagine too many people going into their wallet to back Zack Wilson. Using our valuation process we’ve pretty firmly established that points against the spread come progressively cheaper the closer to even we get. To that point, scanning down the Y-axis on our chart (image below) can serve as a simple guide to highlighting outliers on the board. At (-5.5) neither Houston’s cost-per-point at $21.82 or the intra-game disparity (the difference in point cost between competing teams) of $20 match the relative standard and I’d agree - if you’re looking for value, it’s right here.
NFL Week 14 Favorites With Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS
- LAC (-148) vs DEN
- KC (-142) vs BUF
- ATL (-135) vs TB
- IND (-122) at CIN
NFL Week 14 Underdogs With Value ATS vs. on the Moneyline
- DEN (+2.5) at LAC
- BUF (+2.5) at KC
- TB (+2.5) at ATL
- CIN (+1) vs IND
As usual, our cost-per-point analysis identifies value in close games with spreads of three or fewer points. Remember that any -110 standard price carries an implied probability of 52.4%, another critical part of our calculus. In these examples, betting slight favorites to cover ATS will theoretically save you in terms of total risk, but it's costing you crucial implied probability. To me, the games themselves are too variant, and the samples of NFL games we deal with are too low to pass on a chance to maximize outcomes.
In plain English, play it safe, and don't be greedy trying to cover these narrow spreads. Bookmakers list these games within a point as a soft admission the winner is anyone's guess. We are nearly halfway through the season, and just over 10% (19 of 180) of all games this year have been decided by two points or fewer. These tightly anticipated games draw comparable volume as any other game, except with our simple strategy you can avoid getting caught up on the margins.
Week 14 Best Bet: HOU -5.5 To Win 1 Unit
Record YTD (4-6-1, -2.75u)
As we mentioned above the Texans already have a greenlight from a valuation standpoint and frankly (even as a dyed-in-the-wool Jets fan) I don’t understand this line at all. Granted, the Jets defense can play; there’s no question. However, the burden they’re asked to carry due to utter ineptitude on offense is unreasonable. This winds up manifesting in any vulnerability eventually being exposed against good offenses. Over the last three weeks NYJ’s allowing +26 Points/Game, +40% Drive Success, -0.10 EPA/Dropback and +12 Yards/Reception while forcing only 7.7 Hurries/Game and a 30.9% Pressure Rate.
Is Houston going to score 30 at MetLife on Sunday? No, but they could even though they won’t need to because this Jets offense is intolerable. When Zach Wilson represents a conscious move toward your best chance at winning, you can’t be down any worse. Of all 33 quarterbacks with +185 dropbacks in 2023, Zach Wilson’s 30th or worse in EPA/Attempt (-0.08), EPA/Dropback (-0.24), EPA vs Zone (-0.23), Completion% (59.2), Passer Rating (73.8), Target% To Sticks (36.4), Sack% (10.6) and Passing TDs (6). Woof. Meanwhile, generational talent and all-around great dude C.J. Stroud’s the NFL’s passing leader and he’d be hard-pressed to look any cooler doing it. Even without Tank Dell the Texans are a handful every time they touch the ball and should just outlast the Jets in this one.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- NFL Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks
- Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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