NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
We have another six-team bye-pocalypse in Week 14, so the player props menu is slightly limited this week. But hey, sometimes less is more. We don’t need a Cheesecake Factory menu every time we dine out. (Nothing against Cheesecake Factory, by the way — their Tex-Mex egg rolls are sublime.)
Before we get to the Week 14 slate, let’s recap the Week 13 selections.
The wins: Mike White over 241.5 passing yards, Saquon Barkley under 71.5 rushing yards, Robert Woods under 36.5 receiving yards, Corey Davis over 36.5 receiving yards and Mike Gesicki under 21.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Derrick Henry over 84.5 rushing yards and George Pickens over 44.5 receiving yards
Here are my favorite selections for Week 14 …
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NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
- Last week: 5-2
- Season record: 54-37
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Thursday afternoon.
Josh Allen UNDER 257.5 passing yards (-115)
Allen has fallen short of this number in each of his last three games and five of his last six. He has a tough Week 14 matchup against the Jets, who are giving up just 194.3 passing yards per game (fourth-fewest in the league) and 5.8 yards per pass attempt (also fourth-fewest). In a Week 9 meeting with the Jets, Allen completed 18-of-34 passes for 205 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He averaged just 6.03 yards per attempt in that game. Allen has averaged 7.67 yards per attempt or fewer in five consecutive starts. The forecast in Buffalo calls for a mix of rain and snow Sunday afternoon, so passing conditions could be suboptimal.
Joe Burrow OVER 278.5 passing yards (-115)
Burrow has been lethal at home this season, topping this number in four of his five games at Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium and averaging 319.6 passing yards in those contests. For the year, Burrow is averaging 287.2 passing yards and 36.7 pass attempts per game. When these two teams last played, the Browns embarrassed the Bengals 32-13 in a Monday-night blowout on Halloween, so there’s a revenge narrative involved here. Burrow threw for only 232 yards in the earlier matchup with the Browns, but the Bengals were playing without star WR Ja’Marr Chase in that game. Chase is back, giving Burrow his full complement of wide receivers. The Browns, meanwhile, could be without CB Denzel Ward, who’s dealing with illness and an ankle injury.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 225.5 passing yards (-115)
There was a thick layer of rust on Watson last week in his first game back from suspension — his first regular-season game since Jan. 3, 2021. Watson completed 12-of-22 passes against the Texans for 131 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. Watson’s average depth of target on those 22 throws was just 6.3 yards. The Browns had 38 rushing attempts last week, and I expect them to be similarly run-heavy this week against the Bengals in an effort to lighten their rusty QB’s load. Watson faces a good Cincinnati defense that ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass and 11th in QB pressure rate.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
We hit the under on Barkley’s rushing yardage last week, and we’re going back to the well. The Giants’ running game is struggling. Barkley has failed to hit this number in three consecutive games and four of his last five. Since Week 8, Barkley is averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Barkley has a Week 14 date against the Eagles, and while the Philadelphia run defense hasn’t been great this season, it did manage to hold Titans RB Derrick Henry to 30 rushing yards on 11 attempts last week.
Garrett Wilson OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-110)
This number is simply too low for an ascending star. Wilson had a 5-95-2 receiving against the Bears in Week 12, then exploded for 8-162-0 against the Vikings last week. In the five games this season where the Jets have started either Joe Flacco or Mike White at quarterback (i.e., not Zach Wilson), Garrett Wilson is averaging 11.2 targets, 6.2 catches and 94.2 receiving yards per game. The Bills would appear to be a difficult matchup, but Buffalo has given up the 14th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Greg Dulcich OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
Denver’s rookie tight end has topped this number in four of his seven games this season. He’s coming off a 6-85-0 performance against the Ravens. Dulcich had a 36.3% target share in that game, and he has an enhanced target outlook this week against the Chiefs with Broncos WR Courtland Sutton unlikely to play because of a hamstring injury. Dulcich’s matchup against the Chiefs this week isn’t particularly appealing on the surface — Kansas City is middle of the pack in receiving yardage allowed to TEs — but the Chiefs do sometimes give up big plays to tight ends. Since Week 7, they have allowed the third-highest yards per catch to TEs.
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