NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Dec 08, 2023

We've had three straight winning weeks. Let's see if we can keep the ball rolling, shall we?

Before I get to the Week 14 selections, a quick recap of Week 13 â€¦

The wins: Brock Purdy over 249.5 passing yards, Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards, Austin Ekeler under 51.5 rushing yards, Tyreek Hill over 97.5 receiving yards, Nico Collins over 56.5 receiving yards

The losses: Kenny Pickett over 194.5 passing yards, Chuba Hubbard under 46.5 rushing yards, Brandon Aiyuk over 59.5 passing yards

Last week: 5-3

Season record: 63-59

Here are my favorite selections for Week 14 ...

NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.

Jake Browning UNDER 231.5 passing yards

This number seems awfully high for a former undrafted free agent making his third NFL start. No doubt this lofty yardage total is being juiced by a stellar Week 13 performance against the Jaguars in which Browning completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards. I'm skeptical that Browning can duplicate his heroics against the Colts, who have held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 191.5 passing yards over their last four games. The Indianapolis pass defense ranks ninth in DVOA. Take the under.

Jordan Love OVER 223.5 passing yards

Love has cleared this number in each of his last six games, averaging 267.2 passing yards per game over that stretch. The Packers have been pass-heavy of late, with Love averaging 35.8 pass attempts since Week 8. If he threw 36 passes against the Giants this week, Love would need to average just 6.25 yards per attempt to clear this number. He's averaged 7.5 yards per attempt since Week 8, and the Giants are allowing 7.1 yards per attempt this season. The red-hot Love should be able to clear this low bar rather easily.

Chuba Hubbard OVER 49.5 rushing yards

Hubbard is now locked in as the Panthers' lead running back. He played 65% of Carolina's offensive snaps last week and had a season-high 25 carries for 104 yards and two touchdowns against a respectable Tampa Bay run defense. This week he'll face a slumping Saints defense that has given up 370 rushing yards in its last two games. The New Orleans run defense ranks 25th in DVOA. Smash the over here.

Roschon Johnson OVER 14.5 rushing yards

I'll be honest: I have no idea what to make of the Chicago backfield this week. But I do like getting a number this low on Roschon Johnson, who played a season-high 74% snap share in the Bears' most recent game, a Monday-night win over Minnesota in Week 12. Roschon had 10 carries for 35 yards in that game, and he's had at least 18 rushing yards in each of his last three games. The return of Bears RB D'Onta Foreman from an ankle injury could further complicate an inscrutable Bears backfield, but Roschon should only need a handful of carries to top this number against a Lions defense that will be without DT Alim McNeill, an outstanding run stuffer who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.

Nico Collins UNDER 69.5 receiving yards

This isn't a comfortable bet. Collins has racked up 295 receiving yards over his last two games, and his target outlook is enhanced now that Texans WR Tank Dell is out for the season with a broken leg. But Collins will be facing a Jets defense that absolutely smothers wide receivers. The Jets have allowed a league-low 1,290 receiving yards to opposing WRs this year. Collins is going to get a lot of face time with Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Gardner is allowing an average of just 0.58 yards per route run into his coverage â€” a preposterously low number. Reed is allowing an average of 0.74 yards per route run into his coverage. As if the matchup wasn't daunting enough, the weather forecast for Texans-Jets is calling for windy, rainy conditions. It's hard to see Collins putting up big numbers in this one.

CeeDee Lamb OVER 89.5 receiving yards

Lamb has exceeded 100 receiving yards in five of his last seven contests, averaging 12.3 targets, 9.0 receptions and 117.7 receiving yards a game over that stretch. Lamb has a gorgeous Week 14 matchup against the Eagles, who are giving up 196.9 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers â€” the second-highest total in the league behind only the Commanders. When Lamb faced Philadelphia in Week 9, he caught 11-of-16 targets for 191 yards. Expect Lamb to destroy the Eagles this weekend.

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 3.5 receptions

Gibbs has topped this number in five of his last seven games. He'll be going up against a Chicago defense that has allowed 73 receptions to running backs this season, the third-highest total in the league. When Gibbs faced the Bears in Week 11, he had six receptions for 59 yards. Heâ€™ll once again be busy as a pass catcher on Sunday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

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