NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
With six teams on bye this week, our player prop menu is somewhat limited, so it makes sense to be a little more selective with this week's plays.
We're going all in on a couple of tight ends and a couple of Eagles pass catchers — with one player scratching both of those itches.
Before we get to this week's selections, a recap of Week 13 …
The wins: James Conner over 45.5 rushing yards, Bucky Irving over 56.5 rushing yards, Justin Jefferson over 81.5 receiving yards, Adam Thielen over 38.5 receiving yards
The losses: Matthew Stafford over 254.5 passing yards, Gus Edwards over 46.5 rushing yards, Saquon Barkley under 92.5 rushing yards, Chigoziem Okonkwo under 20.5 receiving yards
- Last week: 4-4
- Season record: 68-67
NFL Week 14 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday, Dec. 6.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 224.5 passing yards
The Jets' season has been unraveling for quite some time, and their passing game has been dysfunctional of late.
Rodgers has failed to clear this number in any of his last four games, and he's thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of the last three. Over his last four games, Rodgers has averaged a meager 5.4 yards per pass attempt.
The 41-year-old Rodgers will be on the road this week against the Dolphins, who have given up the third-fewest passing yards. Miami is allowing 216.8 passing yards per game.
It's hard to see Rodgers reversing this downward trend. I feel good about the under here.
Tyrone Tracy OVER 62.5 rushing yards
Tracy has been a rookie revelation for the Giants, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and cranking out three 100-yard rushing games.
The fifth-round pick from Purdue averaged 104.7 rushing yards per game over a three-game stretch from Week 8 to Week 10. But Tracy fumbled twice in Week 10, losing a costly one in overtime that handed the Panthers a 20-17 win. When Tracy fumbled again in Week 12, he lost some playing time as a result and had only nine carries for 42 yards against the Buccaneers.
Tracy didn't fumble in Week 13, but he had only nine carries for 32 yards in a 27-20 loss to the Cowboys. Tracy played 73% of the Giants' offensive snaps in that game, so the lack of carries was somewhat fluky.
Expect Tracy to get more work this week against a Saints run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and is giving up 112 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry to running backs.
I'm happy to bet on a wildly talented young running back in a matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Kareem Hunt UNDER 33.5 rushing yards
Hunt filled in admirably for the Chiefs at running back while Isiah Pacheco missed more than two months with a leg injury, but Pacheco returned to action last week, and Hunt will be no more than a backup going forward.
Last week against the Raiders, the two Kansas City RBs split offensive snaps evenly, with 27 for Hunt and 26 for Pacheco. They both had seven rushing attempts. Expect Pacheco to take on a heavier load this week, further marginalizing Hunt.
This isn't a big number, but Hunt is a plodder averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and whose longest run this season in 162 rushing attempts is 17 yards. He will need rushing volume to hit this number Sunday night against the Chargers, and it seems unlikely Hunt will get double-digit rushing attempts.
Nick Chubb OVER 39.5 rushing yards
Here's one the BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet really likes, giving the over on Chubb's rushing yardage a 69% chance of hitting. Our projections have Chubb at 52 rushing yards against the Steelers.
Chubb had a season-low nine carries for 21 yards against the Broncos last week, which is obviously influencing this low prop number. But he's cleared this number in 4-of-6 games since his return from a leg injury.
Over his last five games, Chubb has averaged 14.2 carries and 44.2 rushing yards. Chubb faced the Steelers two weeks ago and had 20 carries for 59 yards and two touchdowns.
Chubb should be able to clear this low bar.
A.J. Brown OVER 77.5 receiving yards
Brown has cleared this number in 6-of-9 games this season and is averaging 88.1 yards per contest.
The concern with this bet is that the Eagles don't throw much Sunday as nearly two-touchdown home favorites against the Panthers. But Brown has cleared this number in 5-of-7 games in which Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had 25 or fewer pass attempts this season.
It helps that Brown has been so freakishly efficient in 2024, averaging 18.0 yards per catch, 12.8 yards per target, and 3.32 yards per route run. This number is way too low for a receiver of Brown's caliber. Bet the over.
Grant Calcaterra OVER 25.5 receiving yards
We're smashing over on receiving yardage for the run-heaviest team in the league. What could possibly go wrong?
Kidding aside, the line on Calcaterra seems way too low, but it's understandable for a relatively anonymous player. Calcaterra will be the Eagles' primary tight end this week against the Panthers, with Dallas Goedert sidelined with a knee injury.
In Week 6, Goedert injured his hamstring after playing just three snaps and then missed the next three games. Calcaterra totaled 160 receiving yards over that four-game stretch and topped this number in three of those four contests.
Calcaterra will be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
This is my favorite player prop on the board for Week 14.
Brock Bowers OVER 71.5 receiving yards
Since the beginning of October, Bowers has averaged 11.1 targets, 8.0 receptions, and 83.5 receiving yards per game.
In QB Aidan O'Connell's three starts this season, Bowes has averaged 12.7 targets, 9.7 catches, and 101.3 yards, with at least 10 targets, nine catches, and 71 receiving yards in all of those games.
The Raiders' other prolific pass catcher, WR Jakobi Meyers, is dealing with an ankle injury and probably won’t be 100% on Sunday.
Bowers should have no trouble surpassing this number against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends and is giving up 12.1 yards per catch to TEs.
Jerry Jeudy UNDER 69.5 receiving yards
Whoa. We're betting the under on receiving yardage for Jeudy when he's averaged 9.8 targets, 6.6 catches, and 122.8 receiving yards in QB Jameis Winston's five starts for the Browns?
Why, yes.
Jeudy has a Week 14 matchup with CB Joey Porter Jr. and the Steelers. Jeudy got the better of Porter a couple of weeks ago in a Thursday night game in Cleveland, catching all six of his targets for 85 yards. But Porter is one of the best pure cover corners in the game, and Jeudy's success two weeks ago will have Porter out for revenge. I don't think Jeudy will fare nearly as well this Sunday in a hostile environment in Pittsburgh.