NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets: Picks & Predictions (2024)
The Touchdown Oracle has spoken! Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL slate, where Andrew Erickson (formerly known as “The Props Prophet†and “The Undertakerâ€) unveils his favorite anytime touchdown bets, fresh off an oh-so-close 1st touchdown score from Deebo Samuel on Thursday night. FIRMLY GRASP IT!
Because what's better than betting on TDs? Nothing!
With matchups heating up and playoff races intensifying, I'm here to break down the stats, matchups, and trends to pinpoint the best TD scorers to target.
Each week, I dig deep into red-zone opportunities, defensive vulnerabilities, and playmaker usage to highlight the bets that hold the most value. Whether it's a star player finding the end zone or a sleeper pick ready to cash, these are the touchdown calls you don't want to miss.
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 15. Also, each prime-time game has its own featured anytime TD bets.
Erickson’s Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trey McBride Anytime TD (+160)
Trey McBride led the team with 14 targets (37% Target share), catching 7-for-70 yards (10.0 YPR) last week. He was targeted four times in the red zone, with no receptions or touchdowns (no surprise). He can’t keep this receiving TD drought much longer. The Patriots/Panthers matchups over the next two weeks have to be where he goes on a scoring frenzy with 3-plus TDs.
McBride has 16 red-zone targets without a receiving TD yet this season.
The Patriots’ defense ranks dead last in EPA/target allowed to pass-catchers aligned tight this season. They are also dreadful against No. 2 WRs this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. should draw shadow coverage from Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
That coverage should further open up the target floodgates for McBride – especially in the red zone. McBride has gone over 68.5 receiving yards in four straight games.
I want all the McBride TD action I can get this week: +900 for a first TD score. Give me 2 TDs (+1300) or even three, depending on what action you can get down on books. It is +11000 for McBride to score 3 TDs on FanDuel Sportsbook. Regression is king.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+125)
The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season. Will Travis Kelce finally score a TD this week? Yes.
Last week, Kelce had six targets, five receptions, and 45 yards, leading the team in receptions. Two red-zone targets were caught for 13 yards and no touchdowns. Kelce is running ice cold in the TD department, but it likely won’t last. He is seeing too many red zone targets every week not to score soon (+130 for anytime TD, +750 first TD).
As Joe Pisaspia noted on this week’s BettingPros props podcast, all the TD lines in KC-CLE are listed at plus-odds.
Mike Williams Anytime TD (+550)
George Pickens has accounted for 44.0% of the Steelers intended air yards this season, the 2nd-highest team air yards share of any receiver in the NFL, trailing only Calvin Ridley (47.2%).
He has totaled 20 receptions on targets over 10 air yards, two times more than the next closest Steelers receiver (Calvin Austin, 10). Mike Williams led the Steelers receiving corps with a 40.1% air yards share in Week 14, with Pickens sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Williams also hauled in three of four targets for 36 yards. Big Mike had another 26-yard catch wiped away by an OPI call. The route usage wasn’t great for Williams, but he was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes, tied for the team lead with a 21% Target share with the most air yards (78, 41% air yards share). When he was out there, Wilson was looking for him. He also ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks, an increase from the last few weeks. With Pickens ruled out, I expect Williams to take on a much larger role. Wilson is going to give him chances for 50/50 jump balls, so I am not overly concerned about the matchup against some of the Eagles CBs.
Williams’ anytime TD odds are the second-highest EV bet this week in the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Research Report for Week 15.
Stone Smartt Anytime TD (+340)
The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
No. 2 tight end Stone Smartt caught all three of his targets (10% share) for 54 yards, including a 24-yard grab in Week 14. Will Dissly was reliable, converting 2-of-2 targets for 19 yards. However, he got hurt in the first half and did not return to the game in the second half (shoulder injury). Dissly is expected to miss time.
Herbert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is. Bet Smartter, not harder this week.
Troy Franklin Anytime TD (+475)
According to Next Gen Stats, Bo Nix has improved his downfield passing (10+ air yards) production since Week 5 with 11.3 yards per attempt (11th-most) and a 109.7 passer rating (8th-highest), both top 12 ranks over that span.
In the first four weeks of the season, Nix ranked bottom-5 with 6.2 yards per attempt (2nd-fewest) and a 22.5 passer rating (2nd-lowest). On downfield throws the Colts defense has allowed 12.0 yards per attempt, the 3rd-most in the league this season.
Nix has thrown for over 237.5 passing yards in three straight games. Six of the last seven QBs the Colts have faced have thrown for more than their passing yards projection.
Could we finally see a breakout game for rookie WR Troy Franklin? #GoDucks.
Before the bye week, Franklin tied for second on the team in routes run (41% snap rate) and drew a target on 26% of his routes. The rookie WR hauled in 2-of-5 targets for 28 yards, including 98 air yards and multiple deep targets. He finished second on the team with a 16% Target share.
Alas, more deep targets but no deep catches. Are we sure that Nix and Franklin played college ball together?
Even so, Franklin flashed his potential with a strong target-per-route rate and remains a player to watch as Denver integrates him further into the offense after their bye week.
Keon Coleman 1st TD (+1500)
Don’t forget about rookie WR Keon Coleman. He should make his return to the lineup after he missed several weeks with a wrist injury. According to Next Gen Stats, Coleman has gained 249 receiving yards against press coverage (less than 3 yards of separation) this season, the 9th-most in the NFL, despite not having played since Week 9.
His 249 receiving yards gained against press coverage in Weeks 1-9 are the 5th-most of any rookie wide receiver through the first nine weeks of a season since 2016. The Lions have pressed on 34.4% of cornerback snaps this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
The Bills (Josh Allen) love throwing the ball to Coleman in the end zone.