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NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assuming one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +3.1 2.5% 50 – 74
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6
9 +1.6 15.8% 5 – 5
10 +2.5 22.4% 5 – 6
11 -0.6 -5.7% 4 – 7
12 -1.0 -9.4% 4 – 7
13 -1.3 -10.8% 4 – 8
14 +0.3 2.7% 5 – 5

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers

 

Harris has scored a TD in three of his last four games. He has been nursing a couple of injuries but returned to full practice on Thursday and Friday. While Harris’ workload has fallen off compared to his rookie season, he is still averaging 18.2 opportunities per game since Week 10. This should be an ugly game offensively with a sub-40 total, but Najee has a good chance to make it four out of his last five games with a TD.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

 

Since Week 10, Pacheco has averaged 16 rush attempts and 78.8 yards (9th in NFL) on the ground. He has found the end zone twice over the last two weeks and gets a matchup against the bottom-ranked Texans’ run defense. The Texans allowed a league-worst 141.2 rushing yards to RBs this year. With the Chiefs’ two TD favorites, Pacheco should be in store for another solid game.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

 

I wrote up Moore last week at +500, hoping his Week 13 usage would continue. He ended up playing 82% of the snaps and had 10 targets. Unfortunately, he couldn’t cash in with a TD, but I do not have a problem returning to him this week. The Lions’ defense has been playing better as of late, allowing 20.8 points over their last four games. That said, the defense has been led by an improved run defense, not pass defense. Detroit’s secondary allows the most yards to opposing WRs during that same span. This includes TDs to K.J. Osborne and Adam Thielen last week.

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Lamb had his worst receiving week since Week 1 against the Texans last week, finishing with five catches and 33 yards. This should be a bounce-back spot against the Jaguars, who have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards in the league. This should be an entertaining game, and the 48-point total suggests there will be plenty of TDs in this matchup. Since Dak’s return in Week 7, Lamb ranks 7th in the league in red zone targets (16).

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

Sanders has five TDs in his last three games. He now gets a matchup against the Bears’ defense, who have allowed the most rushing TDs in the league this season. As nine-point favorites on the road, Sanders will likely get around the 20 opportunities he had last week against the Giants. He finished that contest with over 150 yards and two TDs.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

 

This will be the lowest total game on the week, so I’m willing to take a long shot, knowing not many TDs will be scored in this matchup. The second-round pick has been disappointing on the stat sheet since taking over for Zach Ertz in Week 10. That said, he saw the highest target total (6) of his career last week and made an impressive first down catch where he was lit up by the Patriots’ defender. With the loss of Kyler Murray, the Cardinals need to figure out what they have in the young players on the team. I expect McBride to get more opportunities over the last four weeks of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

Evans frustrating year continued last week with another long TD wiped out due to a penalty. The week prior, he missed out on another long TD due to pass interference, which ultimately assisted in the comeback win against the Saints. All that to say, Evans has not scored a TD since Week 4 and only has three on the season. He had 14 last year and 13 in 2020. Brady needs to start getting Evans involved if the Bucs want to hold onto the underwhelming NFC South.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

 

The Titans are a clear pass-funnel defense. Through 14 Weeks, the pass defense allows 300.8 passing yards (31st in NFL) and only 81 yards on the ground (2nd in NFL). That is good news for Justin Herbert and the passing game, who are finally getting healthy. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back last week, Everett still saw eight targets against Miami. We saw the Jaguars feature Evan Engram last week against the Titans. He finished with 162 yards and two TDs on 15 targets. I don’t expect Everett to match that, but he has the longest odds of any of the Chargers’ pass catchers.

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

 

With fellow WRs Jakobi Meyers out and Devante Parker exiting early with a concussion, Agholor went on to see 10 targets from Mac Jones against the Cardinals. He only caught five of the targets for 32 yards, but the usage was encouraging. Meyers and Parker’s status remains unclear this week, so Agholor may again operate as the top target against the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed a TD to a WR in three straight games.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

 

Kamara should see an increased opportunity coming out of the bye with Mark Ingram being placed on IR. For some reason, Ingram had more targets and catches than Kamara in the last game before the bye. Over the last four games, Atlanta has allowed 131.3 rushing yards to RBs (29th in NFL). The last time Kamara received 20 touches in a game was Week 8, and he finished with three TDs in that game. I expect him to get close to that workload this week in a good matchup.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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