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NFL Week 15 Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Saturday (2023)

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Let’s dive into the action for Saturday’s slate of NFL games! Here are my top picks and player prop bets for each NFL Week 15 game on Saturday.

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Saturday Betting Primer

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs (79%). They have also covered the spread in six of their last 8 games (pushed last week). Minnesota has consistently met and exceeded expectations of the market while playing backup QBs this season. They also play every opponent extremely close every single week. The Vikings' average scoring margin is +1.8 with all but one of their 13 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

And even with Josh Dobbs getting benched last week for Nick Mullens, the team still willed its way to a victory because of their elite defense.

Minnesota's defense has been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt, despite all the issues they have had on the offensive side of the ball. No. 6 in total DVOA.

Simply put, the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And they will potentially get back WR Justin Jefferson, who will provide a major offensive boost for Mullens starting under center.

Still, the Vikings offense will run into its fair share of issues based on a plethora of offensive injuries (not named Jefferson) they are dealing with Brian O'Neil, Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram and Alexander Mattison.

Still, the biggest mismatch is that the Bengals’ defense is horrible and they cannot stop the run. 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in run defense DVOA.  Cincy's defense has been horrible preventing explosive plays - 31st in yards per play faced. The Bengals defense also ranks 28th on third downs and 15th in the red zone.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so initially, I was fine catching on 3.5 points on the road. The Vikings have won five of their last six road games.

Meanwhile, Jake Browning is following in the footsteps of a lot of plucky backup QBs we have seen this season. They start hot for a couple of games without expectations in favorable defensive matchups. But as more tape is revealed, defensive coordinators devise ways to stop these backup QBs from sustaining success.

Minnesota's defense is going to be BY FAR the toughest task for Browning after he's taken on the horrible Jaguars/Colts defenses in back-to-back weeks. The Vikings have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks. It's been Week 5 since they allowed a QB to score 16-plus fantasy points against them. Also, half of the QBs they have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 10 games.

Considering I'd argue that Mullens could benefit the most from his matchup without many expectations, I lean much more on the Vikings’ side in this spot. He is more of a Kirk Cousins passer, which means he should be able to slide seamlessly into the starting lineup with his experience in the Kevin O'Connell offensive system. It's no coincidence that Mullen's passing yards prop opened at 224.5 passing yards - which seems high for a backup QB. The passing yardage has gone OVER for 8 of the last 10 QBs to face the Bengals this season.

The market opened Bengals 5-point favorites and has settled at -3.5 despite Mullens drawing the start. I took the Bengals early in the week at -3.5 - thinking the line would move further in their favor, but I was incorrect. I feel less great about the Bengals winning by an FG+, hence my pivot to the Vikings at +3.5 (or just waiting for a better number on Minnesota.)

As for the total. This is my preferred way to bet this game with it likely going down to the wire - per usual of Vikings games.

Four of the Bengals’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line. 5 of their last 8 games have hit the over. Their last six of seven games have all surpassed 41.5 points.

But the Vikings are 10-3 toward the under this season. Their defense has limited their opponents and has been the reason they have been LIVE in every single game this season. They are not trying to score 30-plus points every week and acknowledge they don't score that much to win.

Combining the Vikings' conservative approach and the Bengals’ offense in a tough spot - Minnesota allows the FEWEST explosive plays per game - this is an easy under game at 39.5 points.

I LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup for the Bengals in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Just two RBs they have faced this season have gone for 55 yards or more.

As Joe Mixon continues to cede touches to rookie Chase Brown, the under on his rushing yards prop is the only way to go in this spot. His number opened at 64.5 rushing yards and has been bet down to 56.5 rushing yards. Take the under on his rushing, but the over on his receiving yards at 22.5. Gone over in four straight games and 7 of his last 9.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson was the top receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards from 8 targets in Week 14. Mullens heavily targeted Hockenson and Jalen Nailor when he first entered the game. Nailor will miss this game with a concussion, and Jefferson's status is still TBD. Just bet the overs on tight ends playing the Bengals. They have allowed the most receptions per game to tight ends (6.8) this season.

My Picks

  • Under 39.5
  • Vikings +3.5

My Props

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Colts are 5-1 toward the over this season at home. But each of the Steelers’ last six road games has gone UNDER the total points line. Nine of the Steelers' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 10-3 under MACHINES overall.

It's truly a battle of the stoppable force against the movable object between these two teams. As a result, I'll likely shy away from the total. If forced to choose, I'd bet the over with the Colts dictating the pace and game flow.

The Colts have been one of the few "over" machines this season, boasting an impressive 9-4 record toward the over. They pushed the "under king" Titans to an over 2 weeks ago. Don't think for a second, that they can't push the Steelers (who went over last week) into another game that goes OVER the projected total.

Even so, much prefer just backing the Colts straight up.

The Colts have won four of their last 5 games. And they are 100% ATS as favorites. 4-0 straight up and ATS as favorites in 2023. I was on the Colts last week but didn't readjust after they became underdogs throughout the week. 8-4 overall ATS. 5-2 on the road.

The Steelers are 4-3 as an underdog this season and 57% ATS as an underdog. And usually, they take care of bad teams. That has not been the case over the last 2 weeks, and the Colts boast a 7-6 record. Indianapolis isn't a "bad" team.

The Steelers will also have their hands full defensively if T.J. Watt can't play. He has a concussion and after he played with said concussion last week, hard to imagine the league will give him the green light to play in this spot. As one of the most impactful defensive players, his absence is a major boost for Indy's offense. The Steelers overall are dealing with a plethora of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

As for the Steelers WRs, it's a solid matchup on paper. But the QB situation hardly makes either Diontae Johnson or George Pickens safe bets for overs.

Johnson was a key target last Thursday night for Trubisky, receiving 7 targets (20% target share) and making 3 receptions for 57 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown in the first half. He also commanded 136 air yards - 49% air yard share. He scored twice in the last two games - both passes coming from Trubisky.

The target share was distributed across various receivers, with Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth being notable contributors. Freiermuth also had 7 targets (20% target share) and caught a 2-point conversion.

Pickens was targeted 6 times (17% target share), making 5 receptions for a total of 19 yards.

Freiermuth and Johnson were both on the field for 69% of the snaps. Freiermuth finally returned to the full-time role he had pre-injury, running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Top-tier usage that foreshadows stronger statical outputs and involvement down the stretch.

The Trubisky splits favoring Johnson over Pickens that I outlined last week came to fruition last week. You cannot play Pickens in fantasy football if Trubisky is the team's starting QB.

Johnson's targets with Trubisky games in 2022: 12, 10, 11, 8, 10, 7. Pickens in those same games: 3, 2, 7, 3, 5, 6.

The Colts are allowing the 8th fewest receptions per game to WRs this season. Back to the under on Pickens' 3.5 receptions prop. Gone under in 4 of 7 last games since Johnson returned to the lineup. And we all watched Trubsiky play QB last Thursday night. You shouldn’t have much confidence in his receivers to deliver.

For the Colts offense. Over on Josh Downs. The Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. Another buy-low opportunity for the Colts' shifty slot receiver. Pittsburgh has allowed the 4th-most points per game to slot WRs compared to the 4th-fewest points per game to perimeter WRs.

Using the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, you'll find that 9 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Downs have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season.

My Picks

  • Colts -2.5
  • Over 42

My Props

Detroit Lions (-4) vs. Denver Broncos 

Never like to bet against my Detroit Lions, but they have flashed some imperfections over the last few weeks. 3-4 ATS, with the two latest covers by extremely slim margins. And they are taking on a red-hot Broncos team that is hitting its stride. Denver has won six of their last seven games.

However, the Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six road games. What's lost in the Broncos' mid-season surge was how often they played at home-played 4 home games since Week 7. 4-0 straight up in Denver.

Facing Detroit on the road will represent a new challenge, especially for the Broncos defense. Their team ranks dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed on the road this season. And over their last 3 road games (aside from last week), the Broncos have allowed 20-plus points and 350-plus yards per game.

The Broncos started as the team to "fade" this season. But after a horrible start, they have battled their way to a 6-6-1 record versus the spread. 7-6 straight up.

And as a result of their defensive efforts, 8 of the Broncos' last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Broncos' defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 9 games played.

But they might be in for some regression to the mean as they play indoors for the 3rd straight week at Ford Field with their offense coming off its best yardage total since Week 7. Jerry Jeudy left a lot of production on the table last week. I like his +200 odds at TD score versus the Lions, after he came up just short of scoring last week. And apparently, the Courtland Sutton TD was originally dialed up for Jeudy to score on. There’s no stopping Sutton from scoring his weekly TDs. Jeudy has the second-most receiving yards, catches and targets for a WR with only 1 TD this season. His expected TD output is 4 TDs. The Lions rank first in RZ touches to WRs this season.

Four of the Lions’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line. These teams have averaged 48 points this season.

And where is this game being played? The COORS FIELD of the NFL also known as Ford Field. Betting on the Lions at home to go OVER the projected total has been profitable.

Let's not forget...

In the Lions’ last 15 home games, the average total has been 55.2 points. 87% of the games have scored at least 51 points.

But I'd also like to note that the Lions traditionally have been better at covering in LOWER scoring games. The 4 of the last 5 games they failed to cover the spread - all hit the over. 3 of the 5 went north of 50 points.

That could potentially be the case here in Week 15, with the total hovering at 47.5/48 points. I've never seen a Lions home game over I didn't like. So that's the approach to the total.

As for sides, I bet Denver +4 on Sunday night as part of my early look-ahead. The line briefly moved to +5.5 as money poured on the Lions at home (it then went back down to +4 as I write this piece). Sure, they play better at home. But so does the other offense. And as I have alluded to through the BP Primer this season, betting on underdogs in back-and-forth shootouts is the way to go. And the Lions don't always cover in high-scoring games, even if they win.

I think Denver and Detroit put on a show here, with neither defense unable to stop the opposition. But ultimately, I side with Denver's defense making a final stop with their ability to hone in on limiting No. 1 weapons. Wouldn't shock me to see the Broncos win outright, but I'll gladly take the four points on the road in a game Detroit could escape with a last-minute field goal.

The Lions have the 29th-ranked red zone defense. They also have the 5th-worst yards per pass attempt faced in the last 3 games.

Great matchup for Sam LaPorta this week against the Broncos' No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends.

The last 10 tight ends they have faced have gone for at least 30 or more receiving yards.

Also love the matchup for the Lions RBs to be super productive in this spot. Jahmyr Gibbs's rushing yardage prop at 43.5 yards is egregiously LOW. Gone over in three straight games and led the team in rushing attempts last week over David Montgomery. Denver always has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 8 of the last 10 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

The projections have Gibbs flying over this number at 53.2 yards.

My Picks

  • Broncos +4
  • Over 47.5

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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