NFL Week 15 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 15 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 15 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Betting Systems

NFL Week 15 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Panthers -3
  • Commanders -7.5
  • Bengals -5.5
  • Chiefs -4

Top Underdogs:

  • Jaguars +3.5
  • Steelers +5.5
  • Giants +16.5

Top Totals:

  • DAL/CAR over 42.5
  • MIA/HOU under 46.5
  • BUF/DET over 54.5
  • IND/DEN under 44 
  • TB/LAC over 45.5
  • PHI/PIT under 43 

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 16 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 15 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in seven of their last eight games.
  • Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-9 overall since 2023. They are 5-10 as an underdog in their last 15 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight home games.
  • The Dolphins have won 23 of their last 30 home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 14 games and are 5-8 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites (7-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Thirteen of their last 17 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 15-15 against the spread over its last 29 games.
  • Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 6-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • Houston is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans have won six of their last eight home games.
  • The Texans have scored first in each of their last eight games.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
  • They are 9-19-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-7 ATS (45%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have won the first half in nine of their last 10 games.
  • In four of the Texans' last five games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.

Totals:

  • The Dolphins are 5-2 toward the over with Tua Tagovailoa the last seven weeks.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Dolphins’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Dolphins’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Dolphins' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Miami is 5-2 toward the over at home this season (46 points per game).
  • Eleven of the Dolphins' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the Texans' last eight games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have gone under in 20 of their last 32 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 4-9 O/U this season. Nine of the Texans' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-5 O/U at home (45 points per game).
  • Six of the Texans' last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Texans are coming off a bye week hosting the Miami Dolphins, fresh off an OT victory over the New York Jets.

Typically, this would be an easy spot for a fade of the Dolphins. They don't play well against good teams, especially on the road.

But how good are the 8-5 Texans? As I've pointed out since last season, the market seriously overrates how good this Houston team is.

The favored Texans can’t be trusted anywhere near a betting spread since the start of last season. 6-12-1 as a favorite (31%).

Miami has been 5-1 ATS for the last six weeks, and I expect them to continue to play well on offense with Tua Tagovailoa playing indoors.

Miami's offensive line has been solid in pass protection, providing ample time for Tua Tagovailoa to dice up the Texans. The Texans have faced the most deep targets this season.

Given the matchup, Jaylen Waddle could be set up nicely again in this game. Waddle is over 45.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games (5/8 with Tua this season). But the books have adjusted, and Waddle's yardage prop has leaped to 57.5 yards. Not great value, in my opinion. He is also been on the injury report this week.

However, the overall passing game might struggle. According to Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa has targeted open receivers (3+ yards of separation) on 56.5% of his passes this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

He has completed 87.2% of these passes and has thrown 13 touchdowns (5th-most, despite missing four games) compared to only one interception. The Texans have allowed open targets on 39.3% of passes this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL. They have allowed a 78.7% completion rate on these passes, the 3rd-lowest rate.

Houston has started games fast this season, scoring first in their last eight games while winning the first half in nine of their last 10.

I like the Dolphins here, so I think we have a live betting opportunity to take the Fins on the road if they fall behind early on.

As for the total, I lean toward the under. When we zoom out on these two teams, we are usually disappointed more often than not. Miami's last two road games have finished under game totals of 47.5 and 49.5 - with the latter also in a dome. Games played in Houston this season have shied toward the under.

Props:

Nico Collins has gone over 85.5 receiving yards in all of his games this season with a full allotment of snaps. Miami's secondary has been decimated by injuries, and they allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for 300-plus yards for the first time since the Ronald Reagan administration.

Houston is No. 3 in DVOA versus tight ends this season. They have also allowed the fewest catches to the position (tied with the Lions).

Miami is on a streak of six straight unders to opposing RBs rushing projections in the last six weeks.

Tagovailoa has thrown for over 272.5 passing yards in four straight games. The last three healthy QBs Houston has played have gone over their passing yards projection.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 19 games.
  • The Chiefs have won 18 of their last 19 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs’ last 26 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last nine road games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 25 home games
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in five of their last six home games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games.
  • The Browns have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Browns are 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 road appearances as underdogs and 6-3 as home underdogs (5-2 over the last seven games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-5 on the ML at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last nine home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 12 of their last 13 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Browns’ last nine games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites and 9-6 as a favorite.

Totals:

  • Each of the Chiefs’ last three road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Chiefs’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line (15 of the last 22).
  • Nineteen of the Chiefs' last 24 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • KC is 3-4 toward the over at home this season (Under 43 points per game).
  • The Browns are 4-2 toward the over in their last six games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback (50-point average). He is 2-1 toward the over on the road.
  • Seven of the Browns’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 17 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 17-13-1 toward the over in their last 31 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13, both division home matchups).
  • The Browns are 3-3 toward the over at home (over 42.2 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-5 toward the under at home.

Overall:

What else is there to say about the Kansas City Chiefs? They play to win but not to cover. I backed them last week and felt great after the first half against the Chargers. But ultimately, they fell short of the cover, winning 19-17 for the second straight week.

Ten of their 12 wins have been in one-score games, and they have won all the close games they have played this season. The Chiefs haven't covered the spread as a favorite since the start of October.

KC is so overdue to cover a game (and potentially blow another team out) after failing to do so in their last seven contests. Part of that has been related to overinflated spreads. But KC has covered two of their three games this season as small favorites. And on the road - where the line favors the home team - KC is 3-3 ATS.

Four points hardly seem enough (even for KC) on the road against a 3-10 Browns team.

Cleveland's defense is the exact matchup for the Chiefs to start generating explosive plays.

As for the total, I like the over. Each of the Chiefs’ last three road games has gone OVER the total points line.

I expect explosive offensive plays for KC against the Browns’ defense that ranks 7th in yards per play. Jameis Winston is a human over machine and should be able to do enough offensively against the Chiefs’ defense, which has struggled since they lost cornerback Jaylen Watson. In Week 14, KC also suffered a major defensive injury, losing CB Joshua Williams to a chest injury (although he has practiced in full).

I will note that there is expected to be some weather in this game, with some rain and wind. The total has not moved too much, though, so I don’t think it influences my outlook on the contest. If anything, I would hope for an overreaction by the market on the total and back the over. Also, rainy, wet conditions hardly seem to favor the team with a turnover machine as their starting QB.

Props:

What is one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses? Stopping tight ends.

The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season. Will Travis Kelce finally score a TD this week? Yes.

Last week, Kelce had six targets, five receptions, and 45 yards, leading the team in receptions. Two red-zone targets were caught for 13 yards and no touchdowns. Kelce is running ice cold in the TD department, but it likely won't last. He is seeing too many red-zone targets every week not to score soon (+130 for anytime TD, +750 first TD)

Xavier Worthy: 6 targets, five receptions, 41 yards. The rookie led the Chiefs in snaps played and routes run.

The rookie has been coming on as of late, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards (203) since Week 11. He has four catches or more in four straight games, with 40-plus yards. Keep taking his overs on with the receiving line set at 41.5 receiving yards. OVER. Especially against a leaky Browns secondary that ranks second in deep passes faced this season.

David Njoku: The main target, seeing 13 targets (35% Target share), catching seven passes for 42 yards and a touchdown. Njoku was targeted three times in the red zone and caught one for a touchdown.

Njoku continued his dominance in the short-yardage game but struggled to capitalize on his team-leading Target share. He had 112 air yards but finished with just 42 yards on the seven grabs. He should stay hot against the Chiefs. They have allowed the most yards to TEs this season. Take the MORE THAN on Njoku's 48.5 yards on PrizePicks.

My Picks:

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys' last 32 games.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • Dallas is 4-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games as home underdogs.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 1-6 at home this season.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 23 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Cowboys' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Cowboys' last 27 games have gone OVER the projected total (65%), including the last 16 of 25 games.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (5-2 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 13-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.
  • Sixteen of the Cowboys' last 21 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers' last five games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (5-1 overall record to the over at 49.3 points per game).
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

For the first time in the Bryce Young era, the Carolina Panthers are favorites. The books have never thought he should win a game, but his recent turnaround and matchup against Dallas as his team is laying 3 points at home.

And I couldn't agree more. Dallas is flying to the East Coast for a 1 PM game after playing on Monday Night Football.

Carolina has played in three straight games that have gone down to the wire, but they have fallen just shy of victory. But there's a strong case to be made they should have beaten the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles in consecutive weeks. Even so, they are 5-0 ATS in the past five weeks. 2-0 straight up against teams with losing records.

According to Next Gen Stats, Young has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and recorded a +4.1% completion percentage over expected when under pressure since reclaiming the starting job in Week 8, a huge jump from his 3.1 yards per attempt and a -12.2% CPOE when under pressure in Weeks 1-2.

The Cowboys’ defense has given up 7.6 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks when under pressure this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.

Give me the Cardiac Cats to win by more than a field goal at home. Dallas is dealing with more injuries, which will be problematic in a short week.

Their defense also won't be able to stop the Chuba Hubbard train (given he seems like the only healthy body left in the Carolina backfield).

That's why I am also going right toward the over on the game total.

Carolina has been the home to overs this season (5-1 O/U) - including five straight; 42.5 points is too small of a number.

Props:

The Panthers have allowed the most TDs to tight ends this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, since returning from injured reserve in Week 12, Adam Thielen has been targeted on 27.2% of his routes with a 12.0% deep route rate.

In contrast, he was targeted on just 17.4% of his routes, with a 21.7% deep route rate in Weeks 1-3 before his injury. Thielen has also recorded +50 receiving yards over expected since Week 12, compared to +3 receiving yards over expected prior to his injury.

Rookie Xavier Legette, who commanded 10 targets (24% and 128 air yards), made a huge catch on the final drive last week but also dropped a potential touchdown that could have been the game-winner at the end of the drive. The rookie left a lot of production on the table in what has been a very up-and-down season.

Even so, he has 39-plus yards in four straight games, including six-plus targets in three straight.

In the last five weeks, Young ranks fifth in the NFL in red-zone pass attempts per game. He only had three TDs. Every other quarterback has eight or more passing touchdowns.

Young has also been RUNNING more. He has at least 17 rushing yards in four straight games. Dallas ranks second in most rushing yards allowed to QBs this season.

Rico Dowdle will get there as a rusher but not as a receiver. His receiving yards line is set at 19.5 yards, which he has been under in five straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last seven home games.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Giants are 10-11 ATS over their last 21 games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They are 2-5 ATS at home this season.
  • In each of the Giants' last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the Giants’ last 10 games.
  • The Giants are 13-8-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (10-6-1).
  • The New York Giants are 13-9 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-14 ATS as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in the Giants’ five of the last six road games.
  • New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games.
  • Baltimore is 15-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 11-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 16 applicable appearances.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 games following a loss.
  • Baltimore is 15-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-13 ATS as home favorites.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.

Totals:

  • The Giants are 9-13 toward the over in the last 22 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in nine of their last 19 games.
  • Seven of the Giants' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of last 15).
  • Ten of the Giants’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Giants' last 15 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 14), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 10-3 toward the over this season.
  • Ten of the Ravens’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they've played this season has been 34 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 14 of the last 18 games (14 of the previous 20).
  • Six of the Ravens' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Ravens’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Welcome back to MetLife Stadium, where game totals go to die. The Giants-Saints game last week did not disappoint, with the under coming in with ease.

Seven of the Giants' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of last 15).

But this game features a major mismatch when it comes to red zone efficiency. The Ravens are first in red zone offense, Giants rank dead last. Both defenses are average in the red zone.

Hence, the 16.5 point spread in favor of the Ravens. Well that’s what it was when Drew Lock was expected to start. We got news later in the week that Tommy DeVito would start for the Giants. Last we saw DeVito in 2024, his team lost 7-30 to Tampa Bay. DeVito is now 3-4 as a starter and 4-3 against the spread.

I think I am going to shy away from the 42.5-point total with a heavy over team facing off against a heavy under team. Also, it needs to be recognized that the Ravens’ defense has improved since the start of the season. They have held QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game in their last three games (an average of sub-200 passing yards).

All signs point to a Ravens' domination. But off a bye week with a prime-time Steelers matchup in Week 16 on the horizon, I think we might see Baltimore let down on the road. I've seen this Ravens team play down to their competition numerous times in the last two seasons, and I think we could see something similar versus New York.

The process always says to take the double-digit underdogs at home, and it's a massive spread at 16.5 points.

Baltimore is 11-6 ATS as a road favorite, but that's countered by the Giants’ record at home ATS (13-8-1), especially when they are an underdog (10-6-1).

Trust the process. Give me the Giants +16.5 at home. Again, this is less about the Giants and more about how often I’ve seen Baltimore play down to their competition.

We are getting more points with New York than we should, given they should have beaten the Saints last week, had it not been for a myriad of special team miscues. They won't be at a disadvantage this week, given the issues that have gone on with Ravens kicker Justin Tucker this season.

Props:

The Giants’ biggest weakness on defense is against deep passes. Rashod Bateman has been banged up and Diontae Johson is suspended. Nelson Agholor is in play for a long ball.

Isaiah Likely also stepped up in the absence of Bateman back in Week 13, scoring a touchdown and contributing solid production. Likely's eight targets led the team (23% Target share), along with his 38% target rate per route run.

With Johnson suspended and Bateman banged up (but playing), Likely might be a sneaky producer that nobody is talking about.

According to Next Gen Stats, Lamar Jackson has thrown a league-high 18 downfield touchdown passes (10+ air yards) this season while throwing just one interception.

Jackson’s 57.0% completion percentage on such passes is 4th-highest in the NFL this season. Jackson has been particularly effective throwing downfield in the seams, completing 64.5% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Jackson has also generated +60.2 EPA on downfield passes to the seams this season, 20.9 more than the next-closest quarterback.

Malik Nabers has gone over 64.5 receiving yards twice in his last five games, with his two highest games at 79 and 69 receiving yards, respectively.

Eight of the last 10 TEs to play Baltimore have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.

In Week 14, Nabers paced the Giants receivers with 79 yards on five receptions (10 targets, 22% Target share, 129 air yards), while tight end Daniel Bellinger added 45 yards on five catches (seven targets).

The majority of Nabers' production came in the fourth quarter, failing to exceed 40 yards in the first three quarters.

Bellinger took on a solid role after the team put Theo Johnson on IR. The veteran tight end ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks-great matchup versus the Ravens.

My Picks

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 15 of their last 19 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 19 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 3-13 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-2 as a home underdog and 5-5 on the money line.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In seven of the Jaguars' last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost each of nine of their 10 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 19 of their last 24 games. 3-10 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Six of the Jaguars' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-3 toward the over at home (44 points per game).
  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Jags' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 21 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Sixteen of the Jets’ last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 4-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

What is the easiest way to have lost money gambling on the NFL in 2024? Betting on the Jets as favorites. Gang Green has lost five of their last six games as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars? They have covered the spread in four of their last five games. 5-1-1 record against the number in their last seven games. 8-2 ATS as home underdogs.

I will not be swayed by Aaron Rodgers' 300-yard performance last week - his first 300-yard passing game since 2021.

The Jaguars are historically bad on defense because they give up massive chunk yardage. Rodgers gets the ball out so quickly that I don't think he will actually be able to take advantage of the suspect defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed league-highs in completions (23) and yards (847) on deep (20+ air yard) attempts this season.

On pass attempts of 10 air yards or more, the Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to record a +4.4% completion percentage above expected, the 2nd-highest in the NFL. Matchup: Rodgers has recorded a -8.0% CPOE on downfield pass attempts, the 4th-lowest in the NFL and his lowest since at least 2018.

The Jets find ways to lose no matter the circumstances, whereas Jacksonville seemingly finds a way to cover week in and week out.

As for the total – it’s another UNDER. The Jaguars have averaged 10 points per game with Mac Jones as the primary quarterback this season.

However, I do think they will be able to move the ball between their best offensive players, Tank Bigsby and Brian Thomas Jr.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tank Bigsby has averaged 4.4 yards after contact per carry this season, the most among running backs (min. 75 carries).

Bigsby has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on inside rushes this season, the 7th-most among running backs (min. 40 inside carries). The Jets’ defense has allowed running backs to gain an average 3.5 yards after contact per carry on inside rushes (5th-most).

Last week, Bigsby led the ground game with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Travis Etienne contributed on the ground with 20 yards and through the air with 50 yards on four receptions, including an impressive 21-yard catch.

In the red zone, Bigsby had two rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Etienne Jr. had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Bigsby out-carried Etienne 6 versus one in the first half. Final snaps were 53% for Bigsby and 47% for Etienne. Etienne ran the most routes, but Bigsby dominated the early down usage.

I think this means we can "trust" Bigsby versus the Jets (famous last words).

Props:

New York is tied for the 5th-most deep passes face this season (allowing the fifth-most deep passing yards per game). BTJ is the Jaguars' big-play threat and has been getting it done with Jones as his quarterback.

Thomas Jr. was the top receiver last week, hauling in 8 of 12 targets for 86 yards (40% Target share and 39% target rate per route run). The rookie wide receiver dominated with 113 air yards (74% air yards share) with two red-zone targets. Nobody else had more than 15 air yards.

He is proving his worth as a "QB-proof" asset in recent weeks.

In the last three games, BTJ has a 29% Target share, 44% air yards share, and 81-plus receiving yards per game.

The Jaguars are one of the worst defenses against TEs, so you could do worse than a Tyler Conklin receiving yards prop in some SGP action. They have allowed the third-most receiving TDs and second-most red-zone targets to TEs this season.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 19 games. They are 8-4 ATS and straight up in their last 12 games.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 14 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 15 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in five of their last eight games.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 9 of their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have scored first in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 15 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The Saints have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • The Saints have lost eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Saints are 2-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Saints are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs (9-15 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-8 straight up. Woof.
  • In each of the Saints’ last seven games against NFC opponents, their opponents have scored last.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Commanders’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Commanders’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Commanders' last 10 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 16-4 toward the OVER.
  • The Saints have an 18-point implied team total (second lowest on the slate)
  • The Commanders are 5-3 O/U at home, averaging over 47 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders' last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Saints' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Washington is 29th in red zone defense, and the Saints rank eighth.
  • The Saints are 4-3 toward the over at home (46.6 points per game).

Overall:

The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with losing records. The Commanders have also won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.

As a team that drastically exceeded offseason expectations, they have beaten up bad teams while falling short against the superior teams. This suggests that Commanders will likely be one and done in the playoffs. But we should expect a stream rolling of sorts against the Saints led by Spencer Rattler/Jake Haener.

Let's not forget that Washington destroyed the Titans before their Week 14 bye week. The Titans boast a top-run defense and were no match for Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr.

I also think the bye week is really going to benefit the Commanders. We know that Daniels and Robinson were battling through injuries so they should be closer to 100% after a week off.

Also, the Commanders will get back CB Marshon Lattimore in a #revengegame against his former team. He hasn't played for the Commanders since being dealt via trade.

Either way, I am very pessimistic about the Saints offense. They barely managed to beat the Giants last week. They were outgained and got bailed out by two penalties that took 10 points off the board for Big Blue.

And the Saints at home as underdogs are a terrible bet to make. The Saints are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs. As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-8 straight up. Woof.

I expect the Commanders’ rushing attack to completely overwhelm New Orleans' defense. Before they faced the Giants, they had allowed an average of 400-plus yards in the last three games.

This matchup features the third-most efficient rushing attack against the league's 29th-ranked rushing defense.

Seven points isn't enough in what could be somewhat of a homecoming game for Daniels, who played his college ball at LSU.

Props

Noah Brown has already been ruled out of Week 14's game. In Week 13, Dyami Brown added 35 yards on four catches (8.8 YPR), with a long of 13 yards. He played the second-most WR snaps and tied for the second-most routes run.

As the Commanders' No. 2 WR, this could move targets to others in the offense, such as the RBs.

Jeremy McNichols also needs to be viewed d as the No. 2 rusher. Note that Chris Rodriguez didn't see his first carry until the end of the third quarter in Week 13, with the Commanders winning 35-13.

Alvin Kamara led the Saints backfield with 17 carries in Week 14 but managed only 44 yards (2.6 YPC), with his longest run going for 16 yards. Kendre Miller added 32 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries (3.2 YPC), while Jamaal Williams handled three attempts for five yards.

Miller handled a red-zone carry for his touchdown but had limited usage in the passing game. Kamara went scoreless on his lone red-zone attempt. He did prove valuable as a receiving back, catching all 5 of his targets for 35 yards.

Kamara's snaps stayed high at 72%, with Miller seeing just 26%. However, the coaches definitely must have been encouraged by Miller's performance after his long layoff.

That's why I like the under on Kamara's 61.5 rushing yards prop. Since Week 4, he has missed this number 5 out of 9 times.  The under is also 2-1 without Carr under center for the Saints.

My Picks

 Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • Cincy is 16-7 ATS on the road (70%).
  • The Bengals are 11-4 as road favorites ATS (73%).
  • The Bengals have scored first in seven of their last road games.
  • Joe Burrow is 20-11 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals are 16-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have won each of their last seven road games against NFC opponents.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 14 of their last 22 home games.
  • The Bengals are 10-8-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-8 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in the last five of their last six home games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games.
  • The Titans have lost 15 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites. They are 3-8 ATS as home favorites (28%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 17 games.
  • The Titans are 6-9 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 14 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-11-1 ATS.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Bengals' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bengals' last 14 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Bengals' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bengals’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Cincy is 5-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 59 points per game.
  • Eight of the Bengals' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Titans’ last four home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 16-13-1 toward the under in their last 30 games.
  • Tennessee is 1-4-1 O/U at home this season, averaging 35.2 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Titans' last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Titans had a really tough showing last week against the Jaguars. The defense did its job, but a banged-up Will Levis couldn't get them over the hump in the second half.

They finished way under 20 points and lost outright by a score of 6-10, the lowest combined score of any NFL game in 2024. The fact that they couldn't score against arguably one of the league's worst defenses was a huge surprise.

Now, that's not to say this offense is completely inept. They had two TD drives stalled out in the red zone that ended up being a turnover on downs. In another easy matchup versus the Bengals, I think the Titans’ offense rebounds in some capacity.

But will it be enough to cover the five-point spread? I don't think so. The Titans have covered just two games all season for a reason.

And the Bengals have shown up against the inferior teams on the road this season. As I cited last week, the Bengals are favored for the 10th time this season – the seventh time by more than a field goal. So far in those games, the Bengals are surprisingly 5-2 ATS on a five-game win streak. In fact, the only games the Bengals have covered (and won outright) have been with them favored by at least four points.

Go figure.

Joe Burrow tends to play significantly better against non-AFC North teams. He is 8-14 in his division and 26-16-1 in non-divisional games. It helps even more when facing a team with a losing record; the Bengals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with losing records.

So far, so good for locking in the Bengals at -4.5, with them playing far away from Cincinnati for the second consecutive week.

I also don't think the Titans defense will be able to slow down Burrow. Even though Tennessee's season-long defensive numbers are solid, it hasn't helped them cover. They have also gotten boat-raced by the better offenses like the Packers, Bills, Lions, Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders. They lost all those games by 10-plus points.

I could argue that the Bengals offense is better than all of those units, putting them in a prime position to cover the 4.5-point spread on the road. Tennessee's home-field advantage has become obsolete this season; the Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games.

As for the total, I like the over. I already spoke about how the Titans' offense should rebound. And a matchup against the Bengals is the exact matchup this team needs to break their home under streak.

Props:

The Bengals have also been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season, allowing the most targets to the position.

Over the last two weeks, the Bengals have allowed over 115 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. Their run defense has missed linebacker Logan Wilson tremendously.

Ten of the last 11 tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop. They rank fifth in yards per game to TEs this season (65 per game).

Nick Vannett had an end-zone target last week. The blocking tight end is used a lot in the red zone. Cincy has allowed the second-most TDs to TEs this season.

Tee Higgins: Struggled to find much space with five targets (11.4% Target share), hauling in just two receptions for 23 yards (11.5 YPR). His longest catch went for 13 yards. Tee Higgins had two red zone targets but failed to reach the end zone. Buy low opportunity after a random dud game from Higgins.

Higgins has 69-plus yards in five of his last six games.

Chase Brown is on a five-game streak of 90+ yards from scrimmage. The Titans have allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last four games played.

My Picks:

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 14 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47.5% ATS (8-10) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 22 road contests.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 road games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn’t have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13, 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games. They have dropped three games in a row.
  • And that’s despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except the last two weeks when they opened with leads).
  • The Cardinals have scored first in each of their last five games.
  • In each of the Cardinals’ last four games as home favorites, the first score has been a Cardinals Touchdown.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last six games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Twelve of the last 18 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Seven of the Patriots' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in nine of 13 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • The Patriots are 8-5 toward the over this season.
  • They are 5-1 toward the over at home (46 points per game).
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-9-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals’ road games have totaled 52, 57, 47, 55 points. However, two of the last three weeks have been unders.
  • They are “only” 2-3-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 5-1 record toward the over.
  • Ten of the Cardinals' last 15 home games have gone OVER the total points line (3-4 O/U) this season, averaging 42 points per game.
  • Four of the Cardinals' last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Cardinals' last 13 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Patriots had no reason to lose that game to the Colts back in Week 13. They outgained the Colts with 400 yards of offense. But ultimately, they lost because of penalties in the red zone.

The Patriots’ defense is still not good by any means, so we “should” see the better version of Kyler Murray. The Patriots are one of the worst teams at generating a pass rush, and they play a ton of man coverage. This is the perfect recipe for huge downfield plays from Murray, paired with his legs against New England’s man-heavy defense.

Combine that with a bad run defense, and I think Arizona will light up the scoreboard after they struggled to convert in the red zone last week. Arizona has been the worst offense in the league in the red zone in their last three games.

But we know they can run the ball in this spot.

After last week, the Cardinals are now 7-2 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

My favorite bets on Patriots games have been toward the over, but I do have some reservations against Arizona's underrated defense.

Arizona’s pass defense has allowed fewer than 233 passing yards in five straight games, allowing two touchdowns on defense (before getting trucked by Zach Charbonnet in Week 14).

I also think these teams know each other offenses very well from the overlap between OCs Alex Van Pelt and Drew Petzing in Cleveland.

Still, it's hard to ignore that New England's offense has taken great strides, hitting season-highs in yards in three consecutive games (not including Miami).

The Patriots games have hit at least 47 points in five of their last seven games. However, the two unders have been on the road, and their worst performance at Miami still counts.

It seems like the sportsbooks finally adjusted to Patriots' games catering toward the over, with the total at 46.5 - the highest of any Patriots game this season. Given Arizona's overall solid body of work defensively - I think the best value on the total is the under at 46.5 points.

Keep in mind that each of these team's core is a run-first philosophy.

As for my final say on the sides, I like the Cardinals laying 6 at home. They should be able to jump out to the lead and ride Conner to a touchdown victory at home. Conner is averaging 90 rushing yards per game at home when the Cardinals have been favorites this season.

Props:

Only three QBs all season have failed to hit 180 passing yards against the Patriots’ defense this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Kyler Murray has recorded a league-high 606 passing yards when targeting receivers aligned tight this season, completing 54 of 67 such attempts for one touchdown and one interception (+4.5% CPOE).

Murray has recorded 851 passing yards when targeting Trey McBride from any alignment, his most when targeting one receiver in a season since DeAndre Hopkins in 2020 (1,372). McBride has recorded the most receptions (38) and 2nd-most yards (468) of any player from tight alignments this season.

Last week, Trey McBride led the team with 14 targets (37% Target share), catching 7 for 70 yards (10.0 YPR). He was targeted four times, with no red zone receptions or touchdowns (no surprise).

He can't keep this receiving TD drought much longer. The Patriots/Panthers matchups over the next two weeks have to be where he goes on a scoring frenzy with 3-plus TDs.

McBride has 16 red-zone targets without a receiving TD yet this season.

The Patriots' defense ranks dead last in EPA/target allowed to pass-catchers aligned tight this season. They are also dreadful against No. 2 WRs this season.

Michael Wilson made a significant impact with two catches for 57 yards, including a 41-catch TD grab. Wilson has 32.5 receiving yards or more in three straight games.

Marvin Harrison Jr. saw ten targets, catching 4 for 49 yards (12.3 YPR). He was targeted once, with no receptions or touchdowns. MHJ had another 16-yard catch taken back on a holding call and another removed on an OPI call.

The rookie totaled 83 air yards (53%). It was another solid usage day for Harrison (10-plus targets), but the inefficiency continues to plague him.

He will be faced with a tall task against the Patriots, with him drawing shadow coverage from Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

That coverage should further open up the target floodgates for McBride - especially in the red zone. McBride has gone over 68.5 receiving yards in four straight games.

I want all the McBride TD action this week: +900 for a first TD score. Give me 2 TDs (+1300) or even three, depending on what action you can get down on books. It is +7000 for McBride to score 3 TDs on DraftKings Sportsbook. Regression is king.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

Sides

  • The Bills have won 16 of their last 20 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Bills have won 10 of their last 11 home games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 20-7 as a favorite since the start of last season and 14-13 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 28 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 14 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 14-2 straight up and 9-7 ATS at home.
  • Bills are 8-7 ATS as road favorites. As a road underdog, Buffalo is 2-4 straight up and on the money line (33%).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 15 of their last 20 games.
  • The Lions are 23-10 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 19-8 ATS over their last 27 games (70%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 11 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 14 of their last 18 games.
  • The Lions have won 13 of their last 15 home games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 16 of their last 17 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in their last 11 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.

Totals:

  • Each of the Bills’ last four games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Bills’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line. (18 of their last 24 road games)
  • Six of the Bills’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bills’ last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bills’ last nine home games has gone OVER the total points line. They are 6-0 toward the over this season (53 points per game).
  • Buffalo is 6-0 toward the over at home this season (53 points per game).
  • Fifteen of the Lions’ last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 26 home games has been 54.4 points; 72 percent (19/26) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Nine of the Lions’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Lions' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions’ last three road games have gone under the total.

Overall:

We are back at Ford Field (the Coors Field of the NFL) with a projected shootout on deck between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The game total is set at an enormous 54.5-point number, the highest we have seen in any game yet this season.

But is this number too high? After all, I've never seen a game total played in Detroit where I was not too fond of the over. Keep this in mind: 54.5 points is the average game total for games in Detroit over the last three-plus seasons. Just this season, Lions games, on average, are hitting 55 points per game. The last five home games for the Lions have seen four go for 58-plus (61-point average).

Historically, games with a total that closed between 53.5-54.5 went with a record of 62-52 (54% toward the over).

You don't need any advanced analysis from me to be convinced this game should be high-scoring. But the fact that this game is being played in an environment conducive to a shootout, has me bullish on this total betting.

We know the Lions can score on anybody, and Josh Allen might be in for another six TD performance. And although Buffalo is 4-3 toward the under on the road this season, three of the last four have gone OVER the projected total.

Props:

The Lions have been a bottom-five defense against slot WRs, so it’s another great spot for Khalil Shakir to produce. He has gone over 57.5 yards in 7 of his 12 games played this season.

Detroit's defense plays a lot of man coverage, and they love to blitz. This could prove problematic against a mobile Josh Allen. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen has attempted 43 passes after scrambling from the pocket this season, tied for the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Allen has averaged 18.7 air yards per attempt across those 40 attempts, the most among the 29 quarterbacks with at least 15 passes after scrambling. Allen has completed 10 of 26 downfield passes (10+ air yards) after scrambling for 292 yards and two touchdowns, completing these passes to nine different receivers.

Allen has also completed 58.7% of his passes against the blitz this season, recording 969 yards and a league-high 14 touchdowns (Next Gen Stats).

Allen has also recorded a 123.8 passer rating against the blitz this season, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Allen has been pressured on just 36.7% of dropbacks against the blitz (8th-lowest in the NFL), including a 4.2% sack rate (7th-lowest). The Lions have blitzed at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (36.4%) but have generated the 7th-lowest pressure rate when doing so (38.0%). The Lions have allowed just four touchdowns and forced seven interceptions while blitzing this season, the 2nd-most interceptions in the NFL.

Since Week 7, Josh Allen has thrown for 240-plus yards in five of his seven games.

In 10 games this season, both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have scored a TD. Parlay their TD odds together to get close to a 2-to-1 payout.

The Bills’ defense ranks in the top 3 in most yards, catches, and targets to RBs in the passing game this season.

David Montgomery has over 15.5 receiving yards in six straight games and in 10 of his 13 games played this season (78%).

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills have utilized 5+ defensive backs on 97.5% of defensive snaps this season, the highest mark in the NFL.

Their usage of both nickel (77.8%, 4th) and dime (19.4%, 7th) rank within the top 10 league-wide. However, the Bills usage of light personnel has left them susceptible in the run game, allowing the 7th-most yards per carry (4.7) and the highest explosive run rate (14.5%) despite limiting teams to negative or no gain at the highest rate in the NFL (23.6%).

Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for at least 69 yards in his last six games against teams not named the Green Bay Packers. He is also 5 of 7 toward the over at home this season.

Don't forget about rookie WR Keon Coleman. He should make his return to the lineup after he missed several weeks with a wrist injury. According to Next Gen Stats, Coleman has gained 249 receiving yards against press coverage (less than 3 yards of separation) this season, the 9th-most in the NFL, despite not having played since Week 9.

His 249 receiving yards gained against press coverage in Weeks 1-9 are the 5th-most of any rookie wide receiver through the first nine weeks of a season since 2016. The Lions have pressed on 34.4% of cornerback snaps this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

The Bills love throwing the ball to Coleman in the end zone.

Amari Cooper had 14 targets (38%) in Week 14 and caught 6 for 95 yards, showing his reliability but failing to find the end zone.

The veteran WR was being hyper-targeted, given he was the third on the Bills in routes run behind Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir. Cooper was targeted on a whopping 61% of his routes.

He was clearly the focal point of last week's game plan. But I can't help but think this could have been an even bigger game from Cooper: 14 targets and over 250 air yards (54% air yards share). That being said, I love him for a strong repeat performance against the Lions, who love to play man coverage. Even at his older age, Cooper can still get very open against man coverage.

The Lions give up a ton of passing volume to opposing WRs (not TEs). Take some longer shots at first TDs and anytime TDs with the Bills WRs. Or just parlay them with a David Montgomery TD call.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 21 of the Colts' last 25 games.
  • The Colts are 2-2 ATS as favorites this season
  • They are 6-3 ATS as an underdog (3-6 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last eight road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last nine games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Broncos are 8-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-3 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.

Totals:

  • Seven of the last 10 Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Colts' last 15 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (11 starts) only five times, with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 3-5 toward the over this season (2-5 toward the under in the last seven games).
  • The Colts have scored last in seven of their last eight games.
  • With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 5-3 toward the under in their last seven games.
  • The Broncos rank 2nd in red zone defense.
  • Seven of the Broncos’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Broncos’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos’ last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 4-2 O/U at home, averaging 44.8 points per game.

Overall:

The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as favorites. Bo Nix has been a perfect quarterback ATS as a favorite this season, boasting a 6-0 record. Denver hasn’t lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season.

They have been the first to 25 points in each of their last six games as favorites. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and have scored first in each contest.

The defense is still top-notch, even after Jameis Winston gave them a run for their money a few Monday nights ago. Winston came so close to the back-door cover, but another interception sealed the deal for those laying the 5.5 points with the Broncos.

If Denver could survive a marquee Winston game and still come away with a cover, I feel confident they can do the same against the volatile Anthony Richardson. Winston is lightyears ahead of Richardson as a passer at this stage in his young career.

According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson has recorded the 6th-highest rate of targeting in-breaking routes with 34.4% of his total targets this season.

On such throws, Richardson has pushed the ball vertically with a league-high 13.9 air yards per attempt and has gained 9.6 yards per attempt, the 10th-most in the league. The Broncos defense has forced a tight window throw (<1 yard of separation) on 25.0% of their in-breaking targets faced this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the league. Additionally, they have only allowed 62.9% of such throws to be completed, the 10th-lowest rate this season.

As for the total, keep this in mind. In the Broncos' last seven games, three have surpassed 44 points. I could very much see a 42-point (finish 27-17 score, etc.), which is exactly what I thought might happen when it was Raiders-Broncos. The score was 26-16 last week, with 5:30 remaining in the fourth quarter.

One of the Colts’ biggest weaknesses is against explosive runs, but Denver’s backfield hasn’t shown the type of juice to take advantage of it. It's anybody's guess which RB Sean Payton will lean on, as he probably doesn't even know until he sees them hit the field on the first or second drive.

I think the game will be generally tight, given that the Colts play in close contests. They are 6-5 in close games this season, which means 11 of their 13 games have been decided by one score. The Broncos are 1-4 in close games this season.

I have a terrible feeling that this game will turn into a Broncos win, but it's accompanied by a Colts cover. As underdogs, the Colts are 6-3 ATS (same record ATS for Richardson as a starter).

I think my preferred bet is on the game total under 44 points. We know any game with Richardson can fail to meet offensive expectations, and I could make the same case for a Box Nix-Broncos squad. This 44-point total is the highest total since the Broncos hosted the Falcons in a game that finished with an under.

Props:

The Colts have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks. No starting RB that has faced the Colts has finished with fewer than 64 yards since Week 5.

According to Next Gen Stats, Bo Nix has improved his downfield passing (10+ air yards) production since Week 5 with 11.3 yards per attempt (11th-most) and a 109.7 passer rating (8th-highest), both top 12 ranks over that span.

In the first four weeks of the season, Nix ranked bottom 5 with 6.2 yards per attempt (2nd-fewest) and a 22.5 passer rating (2nd-lowest). On downfield throws the Colts defense has allowed 12.0 yards per attempt, the 3rd-most in the league this season.

Nix has thrown for over 235.5 passing yards in three straight games. Six of the last 7 QBs the Colts have faced have thrown for more than their passing yards projection.

Could we finally see a breakout game for rookie WR Troy Franklin? #GoDucks.

Before the bye week, Franklin tied for second on the team in routes run (41% snap rate) and drew a target on 26% of his routes. The rookie WR hauled in two of five targets for 28 yards, including 98 air yards and multiple deep targets. He finished second on the team with a 16% Target share.

Alas, more deep targets but no deep catches. Are we sure that Nix and Franklin played college ball together?

Even so, Franklin flashed his potential with a strong target-per-route rate and remains a player to watch as Denver integrates him further into the offense after their bye week.

Javonte Williams led with two red-zone carries and scored Denver's lone rushing touchdown. Fullback Michael Burton added a goal-line TD on his only carry of the game. Despite leading the team with 14 carries for 84 yards (6.0 YPC), Jaleel McLaughlin struggled to convert in the red zone, logging three carries without finding the end zone. McLaughlin played 36% of the snaps, narrowly behind Williams' 45%. Rookie Audric Estime contributed sparingly, with three carries for 12 yards while playing just 12% of the snaps.

Classic Broncos backfield usage. Unpredictable. Once we feel good about one guy, Sean Payton mixes it up. Good grief.

Entering Week 15, the rising star looks like McLaughlin after his impressive rushing outing. But we have been down this road before.

I'll take the chance on going under on Williams' rushing yards set at 30.5 yards in case we really see this backfield flipped on its head. Williams has less than TWO rushing yards in three of his last four games.

My Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sides:

  • The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Chargers are 9-4 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 11 of the Chargers' last 13 games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in their last six home games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in five of their last seven road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last five games following a win.
  • The Buccaneers are 12-4 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 11 games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 20 Buccaneers' games.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers have been the first to 10 points in eight of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Buccaneers have lost their last six road games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Chargers’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twenty-one of the Chargers’ last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 9-4 toward the under this season.
  • The Chargers have faced the fewest red-zone scores per game this season (1.0). They have the No. 1-ranked red zone defense. The Buccaneers rank eighth in the red zone.
  • Each of the Chargers’ last five games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Buccaneers' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-5 O/U this season (4-3 at home, averaging nearly 50 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 10th-most points per game (the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense).
  • The Buccaneers are scoring the 5th-most points per game in the NFL (27.9) and have the NFL's 4th-best red zone touchdown percentage (68.6%) - Next Gen Stats.
  • The Chargers are allowing just 15.9 points per game and an opponent red zone touchdown percentage of 41.9% (both lead the NFL) - Next Gen Stats.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-10 record toward the over).

Overall:

If it weren't for Baker Mayfield's extremely strong record ATS as both an underdog and road warrior, I could make a very strong case in favor of taking the Chargers as 3-point favorites at home.

The Bolts have been a good team all year long from both a W-L perspective and ATS. They have only lost to the top-tier teams this season, aside from losing a nail-biter on a Monday Night Football game against the Arizona Cardinals.

They have been solid bets as favorites, and they have been quick starters on offense by jumping out to leads. But Tampa Bay has also been great at jumping out to leads, leading the NFL in first-quarter points.

Ladd McConkey should be back for the Chargers, providing a major boost to their offense. And more touches for rookie Kimani Vidal should get this run game going more against a Buccaneers defense that loves to stack the box - for better or worse.

Gus Edwards led the backfield with 10 carries for 36 yards and a goal-line touchdown (3.6 YPC).

Kimani Vidal contributed eight carries for 34 yards (4.3 YPC).

Edwards led the first half with four carries for six yards compared to Vidal's lone rush attempt for seven yards. But Vidal was a bigger factor in the second half and added the most juice from the backfield, going seven for 27 to Edwards' six for 30.

He out-snapped Gus Edwards 53% versus 43% while running two more routes.

In the red zone, Edwards had four rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Vidal had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Hasaan Haskins played one offensive snap.

Vidal looks like he is starting to emerge in this backfield, but it won't likely be more than a 1A/1B situation.

As for the total, LAC has gone under in back-to-back games. But in their three-game home stint, they ripped off three straight overs. Two of those games featured game totals of 48 and 51 points.

Tampa Bay loves to play toward the over, and I think we will see a fourth straight game shootout at home in Los Angeles.

The Buccaneers’ defense can be extremely boom-or-bust, and they have allowed seven of their last 10 games to go over the total. Before the last two of the last four weeks, the Bucs were on a six-game streak of overs, three of which were on the road.

If we just zoom out on the quarterback matchup between Baker Mayfield and Justin Hebert, it's not hard to see an easy over. We've seen both of these teams dial up heavy pass-game scripts this season.

Props:

The Chargers don’t stack the box or defend runs under center.

The Chargers have allowed the 4th-most rushing yards over expected (+68), 6th-most yards per carry (9.1), and tied for the 2nd-most first downs (16) against scrambles this season (Next Gen Stats).

The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.

No. 2 tight end Stone Smartt caught all 3 of his targets (10% share) for 54 yards, including a 24-yard grab in Week 14. Will Dissly was reliable, converting 2 of 2 targets for 19 yards. But he got hurt in the first half and did not return to the game in the second half (shoulder injury). Dissly is expected to miss time.

Herbert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is. Bet Smartter, not harder this week.

Cade Otton led the Buccaneers in receiving yards last week, catching three of four targets for 70 yards (14% Target share) with a red-zone target.

Otton's targets have dipped to 15% since Evans' return, but he was able to efficiently get there in a plus-matchup. Next week will be tougher against the Chargers. Therefore, I am taking the under on his 4.5 catches prop. He is under this number in 70% of his games played with Mike Evans this season. The Chargers have also been a top-10 defense against TEs this season.

Evans needs to average 100 yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in three straight.

The Chargers rank 29th in EPA/attempt allowed on passes thrown 20-plus air yards this season.

My Picks:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Eagles have won each of their last nine games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Eagles’ last 18 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 20 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 14 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 5-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just four spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 24 games - 13-11 ATS as home favorites
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 11 road games.
  • The Steelers have won 13 of their last 17 games.
  • The Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last six games.
  • In six of the Steelers’ last eight games, the first score has been a Steelers Field Goal.
  • Their opponents have scored last in each of the Steelers’ last four games.
  • As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-3 ATS
  • The Steelers are 15-8 ATS on the road (65%)
  • The Steelers are 8-6 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • 10-6 as road underdogs. The only road games they haven't covered were against the Browns/Bills or contests where they were less than 2-point underdogs or by double-digits.
  • The Steelers have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 14-17 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 6-12 toward the over on the road.
  • Nine of the Eagles’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-5 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-4 toward the over at home this season (42.5 points per game)
  • The Steelers are 6-7 toward the under this season. 2-3 O/U at home this season (39 points per game).
  • Six of the Steelers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Steelers’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Steelers' last 17 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Steelers’ last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Mike Tomlin's Steelers are underdogs on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles. Can you already tell where my lean is? We've seen this time and time again with Tomlin. He gets the best out of his teams when they are counted out the most, and I'd argue this is one of his best Steelers teams in recent years. Sitting at 10-3, nobody should be surprised if the Steelers give the Eagles everything they can handle.

Because I think that the coaching mismatch is what ultimately puts the Steelers in a perfect upset scenario, according to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles are the only team the Steelers have not beaten on the road. Hmmmm.

And I think it will come down to their defense showing out against Philadelphia. Because that's been the story all week regarding the Eagles. A.J. Brown is disgruntled due to a lack of targets instead of rejoicing over a 9-game win streak.

Jalen Hurts has been shaky as a passer, with the Eagles focused on running the ball so heavily.

As I have pointed out in the past regarding the Eagles’ games, much of their struggle to cover games has been due to their defense. Their offense (after predictable sluggish starts) always gets going from the second quarter on.

But the key number is 20 points. The Eagles don't usually cover if they allow 20 points. They held the high-powered Ravens offense to 19 points, some of which came on a garbage-time TD in the fourth quarter. Last week, they didn't cover despite allowing fewer than 17 points on defense. But had it not been for a Xavier Legette drop in the fourth quarter, their defense was on pace to allow 24 points.

Pittsburgh's chances of scoring over 19.5 points are listed at +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

But I don't even think it will take 20 points from the Steelers to cover this game.

I think we see both offenses struggle to some extent in a lower-scoring contest. And when the under is in play, I want to be on the side of the underdog. So even though six of the Steelers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line, the combination of these two defenses has me looking firmly at the under at 43.5 points. One Eagles' home game this season has gone over the total.

These teams want to run the football and play defense. Under, please.

I fully expected the Steelers to jump out to a lead against the slow-starting Eagles, and this might take them out of their run-first identity. The Steelers know who they are, but the Eagles look like they are going through an identity crisis despite boasting an 11-2 record.

I think we see more of a "forceful" attempt to address the passing game, specifically for AJB. This is not only a reason to take OVERs on Brown in the props market, but look at Jalen Hurts' interception numbers. It’s at plus money for Hurts to throw a pick in Week 15. Pittsburgh's defense ranks third in the NFL in interceptions and first in turnover margin this season. They have an interception in 10 of 13 games played this season, including 8 of their last nine contests.

The last time Hurts was intercepted, it was against a strong Dallas pass rush.

Props:

No QB has hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. Russell Wilson will be facing an uphill battle to hit 192.5 passing yards without George Pickens.

George Pickens has accounted for 44.0% of the Steelers intended air yards this season, the 2nd-highest team air yards share of any receiver in the NFL, trailing only Calvin Ridley (47.2%).

He has totaled 20 receptions on targets over 10 air yards, two times more than the next closest Steelers receiver (Calvin Austin, 10). Mike Williams led the Steelers receiving corps with a 40.1% air yards share in Week 14, with Pickens sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Williams also hauled in three of four targets for 36 yards. Big Mike had another 26-yard catch wiped away by an OPI call. The route usage wasn't great for Williams, but he was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes, tied for the team lead with a 21% Target share with the most air yards (78, 41% air yards share). When he was out there, Wilson was looking for him. He also ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks, an increase from the last few weeks. With Pickens doubtful, I expect Williams to take on a much larger role. Wilson is going to give him chances FOR 50/50 jump balls, so I am not overly concerned about the matchup against some of the Eagles CBs.

Williams' anytime TD odds are the second-highest EV bet this week in the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets Research Report for Week 15.

Jaylen Warren has at least 20.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games.

My Picks: