NFL Week 15 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)

by Phil Wood |
Dec 12, 2022

In Week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles wrapped up a playoff berth by destroying the New York Giants, while the Dallas Cowboys needed a fourth quarter-drive just to beat the Houston Texans despite being 17-point favorites. Elsewhere, the Detroit Lions defeated the Minnesota Vikings, the Los Angeles Chargers picked up a huge win over the Miami Dolphins, and Brock Purdy led the San Francisco 49ers to a convincing win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here is a look at some early Week 15 lines and where you should expect them to move.

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Brock Purdy was excellent in his first start as a San Francisco 49er, and his numbers would have been even more impressive had the 49ers not built a 28-0 lead by halftime. It's hard to believe that Purdy is the third-string quarterback for the 49ers because, after one week, he looks like he could be a clear starter in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks never led against the Carolina Panthers, and they have now lost three of their last four games. The Seahawks were a good story early in the season, and because of that, their struggles to cover against the spread and find wins in recent weeks have been a problem for bettors.

Despite Oddsmakers giving Seattle the hook in Week 15, expect the 49ers to see a majority of the support as this line just keeps growing.

Current Line: 49ers -3.5

Predicted Final Line: 49ers -5

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins looked absolutely inept in their Sunday night loss to the Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa was just 10/28 for 145 yards and one touchdown, while the defense allowed 432 yards of total offense.

The Bills are coming off a big win over the New York Jets, and they now hold a two-game lead in the AFC East. While they beat the Jets last week and looked like the much better team for most of the game, they did fail to cover the spread.

The Dolphins did manage to beat the Bills earlier this season, but with how each of these teams is playing at the moment, it seems unlikely they will complete the season sweep. However, will bettors back the Dolphins to cover while getting more than the key number? We think they will

Current Line: Bills -7.5

Predicted Final Line: Bills -7

Detroit Lions at New York Jets

The Lions and the Jets are moving in very different directions. The Jets have lost three of their last four games, including two in a row, while the Lions have won five out of six and just beat the Vikings by 11 points. Yet, the Jets are small home favorites.

Despite losing three of four, the Jets have been in every game over recent weeks. They trailed just 7-0 against the Bills at halftime last week, and they had plenty of opportunities to beat the Vikings two weeks ago.

Yet, the Lions are one of the biggest stories of the NFL right now, and there are countless think pieces about how they could make the postseason after a 1-6 start. Look for bettors to back the hot team and potentially make the Lions a road favorite by kickoff.

Current Line: Jets -1

Predicted Final Line: Pick 'em

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cowboys looked terrible against the Texans on Sunday, yet they found a way to win and, at least for the moment, keep their NFC East hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars picked up a huge road win at Tennessee, and they are now just two games out of first in the AFC South with four games to play.

Because of how public the Cowboys are, they are receiving a lot of flack for their near defeat last week. However, their previous three wins were by an average of 26.7 points. They should not be written off just because of one bad performance, yet it's likely that bettors are going to back the Jaguars early in the week and get this line down around the key number. However, it should move back in favor of the Cowboys late in the week.

Current Line: Cowboys -4.5

Predicted Final Line: Cowboys -3.5

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

What has happened to the Tennessee Titans? They're still in first place in the AFC South, but they have lost three in a row and looked terrible over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Chargers have won two of three, and their Sunday night victory over the Dolphins could be the game that propels their postseason push.

This spread essentially signals that if these two teams met on a neutral field, the line would be a pick 'em. After what we have seen the last few weeks, the Chargers seem like they are the better team. Look for this number to move in their favor past the key number

Current Line: Chargers -3

Predicted Final Line: Chargers -4

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Two weeks ago, the Giants and Commanders played to a tie. Last week, the Commanders had their bye week to prepare for the rematch while the Giants were destroyed by the Eagles. The winner of Sunday night's game will have a clear advantage for making the playoffs, while the loser will drop down to the seven seed or even worse.

The Commanders open as 4.5-point favorites despite playing poorly against the Giants two weeks ago. Yet, with the bye week to prepare, the Commanders have a distinct advantage heading into this week. Plus, they are the home team.

The Giants haven't won since they beat the Texans on November 13. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't lost since November 6. These teams are heading in different directions, and if the Commanders make the right adjustments, this could get out of hand early.

Current Line: Commanders -4.5

Predicted Final Line: Commanders -6

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