NFL Week 15 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Dec 12, 2023

Here is an early look at the NFL Week 15 odds and trends:

NFL Week 15 Early Odds & Trends

Chargers @ Raiders â€“ Thursday, Dec. 14 â€“ 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ LV -3; O/U 34

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-4-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games vs Las Vegas: 12-8 to the Under
Brandon Staley as an underdog (Career): 9-6-1 ATS

Raiders trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under
Previous 24 games following a loss: 9-14-1 ATS
Antonio Pierce as an interim coach: 3-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 34

Itâ€™s looking like this game will feature Easton Stick vs Aidan Oâ€™Connell at QB, and these teams already trend heavily toward the under in spots like these. Iâ€™ll take this game to stay under the point total.

Vikings @ Bengals â€“ Saturday, Dec. 16 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ CIN -3.5; O/U 39.5

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-2-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 6-2-2 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 14-6 to the Over

Bengals trends:

Previous 15 non-conference games: 10-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-6-1 ATS
Previous 26 non-divisional games: 25-10-1 ATS
Previous 33 games following a win: 22-11 ATS
Zac Taylor (Career): 42-34-1 ATS

Best bet: Bengals -3.5

The Joshua Dobbs experiment may be over in Minnesota, as he was benched for Nick Mullins in their thrilling 3-0 win on Sunday. Meanwhile, Zac Taylor and the Bengals coaching staff have really found something with Jake Browning, as the Bengals have rallied for impressive back-to-back wins over teams currently in the playoff picture. Iâ€™ll lay the points with the Bengals at home in this one.

Steelers @ Colts â€“ Saturday, Dec. 16 â€“ 4:30 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ IND -2.5; O/U 42

Steelers trends:

Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 5-2 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games following a loss: 12-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 34 conference games: 19-14-1 ATS
Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 55-30-3 ATS

Colts trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 23 games following a loss: 13-10 ATS
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 18-12 ATS
Gardner Minshew (2023): 5-2 ATS
Shane Steichen as a favorite (Career): 5-1 ATS

Best bet: Steelers +2.5

While the Colts have put together a pretty incredible season considering their circumstances, theyâ€™ve undoubtedly caught a few lucky breaks along the way. They were exposed in Cincinnati on Sunday, and I love getting the Steelers as an underdog coming off of a brutal home loss to the Patriots last Thursday.

Broncos @ Lions â€“ Saturday, Dec. 16 â€“ 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ DET -4.5; O/U 46.5

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 17 games following a win: 7-10 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-12-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Sean Payton as an underdog (Career): 49-32-2 ATS

Lions trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 14 non-conference games: 9-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 24 games following a loss: 25-9 ATS
Dan Campbell (Career): 34-23-1 ATS

Best bet: Lions -4.5

The Lions have not quite looked the same as of late and have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Still, I see this as a great bounce-back opportunity at home, where Jared Goff plays much better. I expect them to look much better than they have in recent weeks. Iâ€™ll lay the points with them under a TD.

Falcons @ Panthers â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ ATL -3; O/U 34.5

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 16 divisional games: 9-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS
Desmond Ridder (Career): 5-9 ATS
Arthur Smith as a favorite (Career): 8-12 ATS

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games vs Atlanta: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 32 games following a loss: 10-20-2 ATS
Bryce Young (2023): 3-6-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 34.5

Games between these two teams have trended toward the under in recent seasons, and I expect this game to follow that trend. In a contest played outdoors between two really underwhelming NFC South offenses, Iâ€™ll take the game to stay under the point total.

Bears @ Browns â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ CLE -3.5; O/U 37.5

Bears trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 13 games following a win: 4-9 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 30 non-divisional games: 12-15-3 ATS
Justin Fields (Career): 11-18-1 ATS
Matt Eberflus (Career): 12-18 ATS

Browns trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 8-1-1 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 21 games following a win: 6-14-1 ATS
Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 13-21 ATS

Best bet: Browns -3.5

While the Kevin Stefanksi-led Browns have not been great as favorites, and the Bears have looked much better recently, this Cleveland team reaches another level at home in front of their fans. I like for their defense to cause problems for this Bears offense and lead them to a cover.

Jets @ Dolphins â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ MIA -8.5; O/U 39

Jets trends:

Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 1-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 games following a win: 5-9-1 ATS
Previous 16 divisional games: 5-11 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Under
Robert Saleh as an underdog (Career): 17-23 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Previous 17 divisional games: 12-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 25 games following a win: 16-9 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 28-17 ATS
Mike McDaniel as a favorite (Career): 11-7 ATS

Best bet: Dolphins -8.5

We just saw Miami dismantle the Jets in the Meadowlands a few weeks ago, and now theyâ€™ll be playing them on their home turf, where theyâ€™ve been absolutely dynamite as favorites. I think weâ€™re actually getting a few points of value due to the margin that the Jets won by on Sunday. Iâ€™m not afraid to lay this big number with Miami.

Texans @ Titans â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ TEN -2.5; O/U 37.5

Texans trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 2-4 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 divisional games: 9-6 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
DeMeco Ryans as an underdog (2023): 5-3 ATS

Titans trends:

Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games vs Houston: 7-13 ATS
Mike Vrabel as a favorite (Career): 20-24-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 37.5

Sunday was brutal for the Texans offensively, as they failed to put up any points in the first half and saw both C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins exit the game early due to injury. Tennesseeâ€™s offense also lacks explosiveness, and both teams have trended heavily toward the under in these spots. Give me the under in what I expect to be a very low-scoring game.

Giants @ Saints â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ NO -6; O/U 37.5

Giants trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-5-1 to the Under
Previous 33 conference games: 15-18 ATS
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 14-8-1 ATS

Saints trends:

Previous 20 games following a win: 5-14-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 13-18 ATS
Previous 32 conference games: 12-19-1 ATS
Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 5-15-1 ATS

Best bet: Giants +6

New Orleans has been absolutely terrible as favorites under Dennis Allen, and the Giants have been very feisty underdogs in Brian Dabollâ€™s tenure. Iâ€™ll take them to cover as underdogs of nearly a TD against a Saints team that, frankly, isnâ€™t very good.

Buccaneers @ Packers â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ GB -3.5; O/U 41.5

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 34 non-divisional games: 14-19-1 ATS
Previous 36 conference games: 16-19-1 ATS
Baker Mayfield (Career): 33-47-1 ATS
Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 22-30-3 ATS

Packers trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 26 games following a win: 16-10 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 18-13 ATS
Previous 32 conference games: 20-12 ATS
Matt LaFleur (Career): 46-32 ATS

Best bet: Packers -3.5

Betting on the combo of Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles has been an extremely unprofitable proposition, and Green Bay has been firing on all cylinders down the stretch. Iâ€™ll back them to cover this spread at home against a Tampa team thatâ€™s riding high after a huge road win.

Chiefs @ Patriots â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ KC -9.5; O/U 37

Chiefs trends:

Previous 8 games with rest disadvantage: 3-5 ATS
Previous 12 games following a loss: 7-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 37 conference games: 15-22 ATS

Patriots trends:

Previous 5 games with rest advantage: 1-4 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 1-9 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 4-16 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 5-15 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 13-17-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 14-18-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 37

The Chiefs have significantly regressed on the offensive side of the ball from years prior, and New Englandâ€™s offense has been one of the worst in the NFL this season. I donâ€™t trust the Chiefs to cover a number this large and want no part of the Patriots in this game after picking up their third win of the season. Instead, Iâ€™ll take the under in a game that should be relatively low-scoring.

49ers @ Cardinals â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ SF -13.5; O/U 47.5

49ers trends:

Previous 18 divisional games: 12-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 36 games following a win: 23-13 ATS

Cardinals trends:

Previous 4 games with rest advantage: 3-1 ATS
Previous 10 games vs San Francisco: 6-4 to the Over
Previous 17 divisional games: 5-12 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 13-6-1 to the Over

Best bet: Over 47.5

Arizona home games have been profitable to over-backers, and these teams have gone over in recent meetings more often than not. While I lean the 49ers way on the spread, Iâ€™d rather trust these two offenses to put up points and take the over in this matchup.

Commanders @ Rams â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ LAR -6.5; O/U 48.5

Commanders trends:

Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 3-5 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games following a BYE: 2-8 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 14-16-3 ATS
Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 59-45-2 ATS

Rams trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 26 games following a win: 11-15 ATS
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 12-17-3 ATS

Best bet: Over 48.5

Washingtonâ€™s defense has been giving up big point totals to just about everyone theyâ€™ve played, and we just saw this Rams team put up 31 points in terrible weather conditions against an outstanding Baltimore defense. I have no doubt that the Rams will score, and I trust Washington to put up enough points to hit this over.

Cowboys @ Bills â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ BUF -2.5; O/U 50.5

Cowboys trends:

Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-5 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 33 non-divisional games: 20-13 ATS
Previous 34 games following a win: 19-15 ATS

Bills trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 32 games following a win: 14-17-1 ATS
Josh Allen (Career): 52-42-3 ATS
Sean McDermott (Career): 57-46-7 ATS

Best bet: Bills -2.5

Dallas has been a wagon as a frontrunner in recent years, but theyâ€™ve been much less profitable when Vegas sees them as the underdog. Every game for Buffalo is a playoff game until their season ends, and I think we see another all-out performance in front of their home crowd. I like the Bills to cover this game as a favorite under a field goal.

Ravens @ Jaguars â€“ Sunday, Dec. 17 â€“ 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ BAL -3.5; O/U 43.5

Ravens trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 27 games following a win: 10-16-1 ATS

Jaguars trends:

Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 26 games following a loss: 10-16 ATS
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 14-18 ATS
Previous 36 conference games: 20-16 ATS

Best bet: Over 43.5

While the trends suggest that this game will go under, Jacksonvilleâ€™s defense has been playing extremely poorly as of late, and we just saw the Ravensâ€™ defense get ripped apart in a bad-weather game by a Rams team suited to play indoors. Iâ€™ll take the over in this game that I think has a depressed point total.

Eagles @ Seahawks â€“ Monday, Dec. 18 â€“ 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines â€“ PHI -3.5; O/U 48

Eagles trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-2-2 ATS
Previous 13 games following a loss: 5-8 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 34 non-divisional games: 19-14-1 ATS
Jalen Hurts (Career): 27-21-2 ATS

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 15-5 ATS
Previous 35 conference games: 16-19 ATS
Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 50-35-3 ATS

Best bet: Eagles -3.5

The Eagles get a little bit of a reprieve this week after playing the likes of the Chiefs, Bills and Cowboys (2X) in recent weeks. Seattle has also been leaking oil down the stretch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I think this is a get-right spot for the Eaglesâ€™ offense, and I like them to cover this spread on the road.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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