NFL Week 15 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Trent Conner |
Dec 15, 2023

Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 15!

We compare first touchdown stats to prop bet odds to help identify this weekâ€™s best bets >>

NFL Week 15 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Mike Evans

Odds: +800 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Mike Evans only had one reception last week but should bounce back this week. Jaire Alexander has missed five consecutive games with a shoulder injury and could miss again this week. Evans has double-digit targets in three of the last five games and five TDs in that span. The Packers have faced some sorry receiving corps, and the Buccaneers' crew should be a step up in competition. Evans also has 13 red zone targets this season and caught three for scores. He is a solid play, especially if Baker Mayfield can take advantage of this defense.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Bijan Robinson

Odds: +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Panthers are an easy team to match up against. They struggle heavily against the run and are formidable against the pass. They have allowed 21 rushing TDs this season, which leads the league. Robinson has received 14.7 carries and six targets per game. He has scored three times in that span. Robinson is one of the toughest players to tackle in the league and should smash in this plus matchup.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill

Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Hill did not play last week. It was the first time Jamaal Williams logged double-digit carries. Williams is +1000 to score first, which shows how much value he accrued after one game without Hill. That could change this week if Hill is available. He practiced on Wednesday and Thursday on a limited basis, which is a step in the right direction. He has 27 carries and four targets in the red zone this season. Williams could gain a few carries this week, but Hill is the best value in this game.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Will Levis

Odds: +1800 via Caesars Sportsbook

The Texans will likely be without C.J. Stroud, who has not practiced this week and is still in concussion protocol. Davis Mills will be the signal caller if he cannot clear protocol. The Texans have allowed six rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season, tied for first in the league. Levis is mobile and fearless enough to tuck the ball and run and only needs an opportunity. The Titans are three-point favorites at home, and Derrick Henry's odds are far too low against this pass-funnel defense.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

Justin Fields

Odds: +1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Justin Fields has been running much more since he returned from injury. He has 18, 12, and 12 carries in his three games back and scored on the ground last week. The Browns have given up five rushing TDs to quarterbacks this season, including two to Lamar Jackson and Gardner Minshew and one to Russell Wilson. The Browns have been stellar defending the pass, so Fields could drop back and take off running more than usual this week. He is still very much in play with the amount of carries recently.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Garrett Wilson

Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Garrett Wilson caught nine of 14 targets for 108 yards last week. Zach Wilson had a terrific first game since being replaced as a starter a few weeks ago. Zach Wilson did not play in the first game against the Dolphins, but Garrett Wilson found the end zone that week. He only has three touchdowns all season but has 15 red zone targets. Hopefully, Zach Wilson's play carries over from last week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott

Odds: +700 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Elliott played 91% of snaps last week in his first game without Rhamondre Stevenson. He is going to receive almost all of the volume in this backfield. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Bills last week and have to travel to Foxborough. They have been less prolific this season, ranking eleventh in points per game. The Chiefs allow 114.9 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per attempt. Elliott had two carries in the red zone last week and caught his lone red zone target for a touchdown. He had 72 receiving yards and 68 rushing yards on 29 total touches, so he is heavily involved in the offense. He is a safe play based on volume.

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams

Logan Thomas

Odds: +2200 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Ram's options are overpriced, and the best matchup for the Commanders is in the middle of the field. Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas should receive plenty of targets, with Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin facing tough matchups on the outside. Thomas only had one target last week but averages 5.3 targets per game. The Rams are tied for most TDs allowed to tight ends this season, including one in consecutive weeks. Thomas has a great matchup and offers value.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey

Odds: +275 via Caesars Sportsbook

Jordan Mason fell into the end zone last week after McCaffrey took his first carry for 72 yards. It should not stop anyone from playing him again this week. He has a fantastic matchup against a struggling run defense. The Cardinals have allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game and 16 rushing TDs this season. It is hard to pass on him in this favorable matchup.

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills

CeeDee Lamb

Odds: +850 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Lamb has scored in five consecutive games and is playing with the MVP-favorite, Dak Prescott. The Bills are not great at defending the pass. They allow 207.9 passing yards per game and have given up 17 passing TDs. The Bills have allowed four over the last two weeks against the Eagles and Chiefs, which means Lamb can score, too. Lamb is on fire and should continue his touchdown streak this week.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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