NFL Week 15 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 15.
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Week 15 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky | Greer |
| SEA | SF | 3.5 | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA |
| MIN | IND | -4.5 | MIN | IND | MIN | IND | IND | IND |
| CLE | BAL | -2.5 | BAL | CLE | BAL | BAL | BAL | CLE |
| BUF | MIA | -7 | BUF | BUF | MIA | MIA | BUF | MIA |
| NO | ATL | -3.5 | NO | NO | ATL | NO | NO | ATL |
| CAR | PIT | -2 | PIT | PIT | PIT | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| HOU | KC | 14 | KC | KC | HOU | KC | KC | HOU |
| NYJ | DET | -1 | NYJ | DET | NYJ | NYJ | DET | DET |
| JAX | DAL | 5.5 | JAX | DAL | DAL | JAX | DAL | JAX |
| CHI | PHI | 9 | PHI | CHI | PHI | CHI | CHI | CHI |
| DEN | ARI | -1 | DEN | DEN | ARI | DEN | DEN | DEN |
| LV | NE | -1 | NE | LV | NE | LV | NE | NE |
| TB | CIN | 3.5 | CIN | CIN | TB | CIN | CIN | TB |
| LAC | TEN | -2.5 | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | LAC |
| WAS | NYG | -4.5 | WAS | NYG | NYG | NYG | WAS | NYG |
| GB | LAR | -8 | GB | GB | LAR | LAR | GB | LAR |
PIT +3 at CAR
The Panthers are coming off a great 30-24 road underdog win against the Seahawks — but 2021 starter-turned-2022 backup-turned-starter Sam Darnold had a 5.8 AY/A in that game on just 24 pass attempts, so it’s not as if he’s the reason they won. And his career mark is also 5.8 AY/A. He’s still the same-ol’ Sam. Darnold should almost never be a favorite, and the Panthers are now favorites. As such, they’re 0-3 ATS this year. Yeah, they’re 6-2 ATS under interim HC Steve Wilks, but after last week I believe the market has now caught up to the Panthers, who have never been favored under Wilks. In his only two games as a favorite (with the 2018 Cardinals), Wilks was 0-2 ATS and failed to cover the spread by a margin of -13.25 points. This is a prime spot to sell high on the Panthers — and also to buy low on the Steelers, who last week suffered a tough 16-14 loss as home favorites against the Ravens. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett (concussion) seems likely to miss this week for the Steelers, but backup QB Mitchell Trubisky is a veteran, and he’s better than Darnold despite his faults. The Steelers have the edge at quarterback and coach, and the Panthers have a mediocre home-field advantage. If you give me +3 with the Steelers against a bad team, I’ll take it.
– Matthew Freedman
DET -1 @ NYJ
Detroit is by far the better team in this matchup. Looking at points scored and EPA, the Lions should have no problem outpacing the Jets. The concern becomes New York’s defense. The Lions have far too many weapons to be contained by the Jets defense. On the other side, the Jets offense is starting to click, but Zach Wilson’s ineptitude is a concern.
– Ben Wolbransky
DAL -4 @ JAX
The Cowboys lead the league in points per game (35.7) since the return of Prescott in Week 7. The Jaguars rank 27th in points allowed (25.7) during that same span. The Jaguars also rank 29th in the league in terms of passing yards and yards per carry allowed since Week 7. After a scare against the one-win Texans at home, the Cowboys’ balanced offense should be able to take advantage of the Jaguars’ defense through air or ground on the road this week.
– Dylan Santora
CHI +9 vs. PHI
It took the Bears almost half of the season to hit their offensive stride, but in games that Justin Fields has started since Week 7, they have averaged 27.8 PPG. The Bears bring the NFL’s best rushing attack into this matchup, which is the blueprint necessary to attack this Eagles defense that ranks 24th against the rush. The Eagles have not been nearly as dominant as a road team this year, holding a 2-4 record ATS and failing to cover against the likes of Arizona, Houston and Indianapolis. While I don’t think that the Bears defense will stop the Eagles from putting up points, their offense is more than capable to cover this large spread.
– Austin MacMillan
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Week 15 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky |
| SEA | SF | 43.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| MIN | IND | 48.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Under |
| CLE | BAL | 38.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| BUF | MIA | 42 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| NO | ATL | 43 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| CAR | PIT | 37.5 | Over | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| HOU | KC | 49.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| NYJ | DET | 44 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| JAX | DAL | 47.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| CHI | PHI | 48.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| DEN | ARI | 36.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Over |
| LV | NE | 44.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| TB | CIN | 44 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| LAC | TEN | 47 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Under |
| WAS | NYG | 40.5 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Over |
| GB | LAR | 39.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
DAL @ JAX Over 47.5
The over has hit in a combined 14-12 between these two teams, mostly because of their roaring offenses. Since week 8, Dallas is scoring the most points per game an astonishing 38 points, facing a defense allowing the 6th most points per game. Jacksonville doens’t have the defensive force to stop Dak and the passing game. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has been fairly rock solid, but Jacksonville’s offense has been suprisingly efficient, totaling a top 10 offensive EPA number this season. I don’t expect this game to be a marquee shootout, but I’ve projected it for around 50.5 points.
– Ben Wolbransky
ARI @ DEN Under 36.5
Prior to facing the Chiefs last week, the total in Broncos’ games averaged 29.5 over the last eight games. The Chiefs will make any defense look bad, so I am willing to excuse the 34 points allowed by the top-ranked Broncos’ defense. The Broncos will also face a substantial step down in opponent with the Colt McCoy led Cardinals this week. Even with the 28-point output last week, the Broncos still rank dead last in points per game (14.9) on offense. Regardless of Russell Wilson plays, the under will be in play.
– Dylan Santora
PHI @ CHI Over 48.5
These teams are tied for the most profitable over teams in the NFL, both holding a 9-4 record to the over. The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking 25th against the rush, 31st against the pass, and surrendering the 4th most points per possession. On the flip side, the Bears have the top rushing offense in the league in terms of YPA, which should continue to have success this week against an Eagles defense that ranks 24th against the rush. With no inclement weather in the forecast, I see this being a high scoring back-and-forth affair with plenty of explosive plays.
– Austin MacMillan
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