NFL Week 15 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 15 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| SF | ARI | 13.5 | 12 | -1.5 | 48 | 47.5 | -0.5 |
| DAL | BUF | -2 | -2 | 0 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 0 |
| ATL | CAR | 3 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 33.5 | -1.5 |
| MIN | CIN | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 39 | 40.5 | 1.5 |
| CHI | CLE | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 37.5 | 38.5 | 1 |
| DEN | DET | -5 | -4.5 | 0.5 | 48 | 48 | 0 |
| TB | GB | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 41.5 | 42 | 0.5 |
| PIT | IND | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| BAL | JAX | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1 |
| WAS | LAR | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 | 49 | 50.5 | 1.5 |
| LAC | LV | -3 | -3 | 0 | 34 | 35 | 1 |
| NYJ | MIA | -9 | -9 | 0 | 39 | 37 | -2 |
| KC | NE | 9.5 | 7.5 | -2 | 37 | 37 | 0 |
| NYG | NO | -6 | -6 | 0 | 37.5 | 39 | 1.5 |
| PHI | SEA | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 47.5 | 48.5 | 1 |
| HOU | TEN | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 38 | 37 | -1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Tuesday afternoon | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 15 Spread Movement Analysis
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: +13.5 → +12
The 49ers took advantage of their Week 9 bye to get healthy and have now rattled off five consecutive wins by double digits. Average margin of victory in 49ers games has been 19.4 during that span. They beat the Cardinals 35-16 back in Week 4 at home, although Kyler Murray was not starting for Arizona at that point. The Cardinals are coming off their bye after a blowout win in Pittsburgh, but it is still surprising the line has moved in their favor given how dominant the 49ers have been lately.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: +9.5 → +7.5
This matchup features an interesting 2-point line movement in the Patriots’ favor. New England returns home with a few days extra rest after their 21-18 win in Pittsburgh last Thursday. It was the first time the Patriots have scored over 20 points since Week 7. The defense continues to play well, allowing 12.8 ppg over their past five games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs come off a home loss against the Bills, which saw Mahomes lose his composure after an offensive offsides call on wide receiver Kadarius Toney reversed what would have been a go-ahead touchdown. The Chiefs have lost three of their past four games, so the line movement reflects their recent play.
NFL Week 15 Total Movement Analysis
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 39 → 37
The lower total could be attributed to the injuries on the offensive side of the ball for the Dolphins. It is evident the team needs Tyreek Hill to be playing in order to be the explosive team that is averaging 31.6 ppg on the season. They did not look the same when he exited Monday night’s collapse to the Titans at home, and Hill has not been able to practice as of Thursday. To add on, explosive playmaking rookie running back De’Von Achane also missed his second consecutive practice, so the drop in total makes sense. On the Jets’ side, the offense under Zach Wilson was able to score more points (30) than it had the prior three weeks in total. That said, the Dolphins defense should be ready to make up for their late game collapse this week.
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams: 49 → 50.5
The increase in total should be no surprise after looking at recent games with these two teams. Over the last four weeks, the combined total in Commanders games has been 55.0, while the Rams have been involved in an average of 51.8. This includes an overtime loss last week, where the Rams were able to put up 31 points in Baltimore against on a Ravens defense allowing 15.6 ppg on the season heading into the game. The dome in LA should only help facility more offense between these two teams.
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