Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 15 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| MIA | HOU | -2 | -3 | 1 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
| WAS | NO | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 | 47.5 | 43.5 | -4 |
| CIN | TEN | 4.5 | 5 | -0.5 | 47.5 | 46.5 | -1 |
| KC | CLE | 6.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| NYJ | JAX | 3.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 0 |
| BAL | NYG | 12.5 | 16 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 42.5 | -2 |
| DAL | CAR | -1.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| IND | DEN | -5 | -4 | -1 | 43 | 44 | 1 |
| BUF | DET | -2.5 | -2 | -0.5 | 53.5 | 54.5 | 1 |
| NE | AZ | -7 | -6 | -1 | 44.5 | 46 | 1.5 |
| TB | LAC | -2.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 46.5 | 45 | -1.5 |
| PIT | PHI | -4.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 44.5 | 42 | -2.5 |
| GB | SEA | 2.5 | 3 | -0.5 | 47 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
| CHI | MIN | -7 | -7 | 0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| ATL | LV | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 44.5 | 3 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 15 Spread Movement Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: 6.5 -> 4
It is not uncommon to see a point spread move 2.5 points or more in a game involving the Chiefs, but it is rare to see the line move against the two-time defending Super Bowl champions that much. Kansas City is 10-0 in one-score games. Its 10 wins by seven or fewer points are tied for the most in NFL history.
Patrick Mahomes also pulled another rabbit out of his hat. They completed a comeback victory when trailing in the fourth quarter last week, which improved his record to an unbelievable .500 (the best winning percentage of all-time among quarterbacks with a minimum of 25 starts) when trailing in the fourth quarter.
The betting support has been non-stop on the underdog Browns, as the line first plummeted from +6.5 to +5.5, then decreased in half-point increments until it hit +4. There has yet to be a buyback on Kansas City, but there would very likely be if this spread continues to track toward +3.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 12.5 -> 16
The Ravens-Giants spread has moved 3.5 points away from its opening number, the second-biggest move of the week. One has to believe the bulk of the line movement came after the news of New York announcing Tommy DeVito as its starting quarterback in place of the injured Drew Lock.
Baltimore was always destined to be a big favorite coming off a bye week and facing a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season. New York is also amid its longest losing streak (eight games) since 2019 and is 0-7 at home for the first time since 1974.
The line movement is historic, as the Giants have never been a 14-point or more underdog at home over the last 50 years.
NFL Week 15 Total Movement Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 47.5 -> 46.5
The total on Cincinnati’s Monday Night Football game against the Cowboys last week moved a whopping four points throughout the week, the most of any game on the Week 14 slate. That line movement from 45.5 to 49.5 was significant, considering the game finished with a final score of 27-20.
The fact the total went down in this game is surprising given how dominant the Bengals offense has been, and how poorly their defense has played. The first line movement was actually towards the over from 47.5 to 48, but under backers weighed in heavily at that number, driving the total way down from 48 to 46.5. At that point, there was some buyback on the over to 47, but under backers have made their stance clear that such a total is too high, driving it down once again to 46.5.
While the Bengals are the second-most profitable team to the over this season, cashing it in nine of their 13 games, the under is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four home games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 44.5 -> 42
Bettors expect a good ol’ fashioned rock fight between these two Pennsylvania teams in a strength vs. strength matchup. The Steelers rush defense ranks fourth in yards per game allowed, fifth in 10-yard rushes and eighth in yards before contact per rush, while Philadelphia’s rushing offense ranks in the top two of the league in all those categories.
Weather is not a factor in the line movement, as the forecast for Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia calls for 44 degrees, a 12% chance of precipitation and a light five miles per hour east-northeast winds. But since the total has done nothing but lower all week, we may not have seen the bottom of this total before kickoff.
From an against-the-spread (ATS) perspective, Pittsburgh has won and covered all five of its games as underdogs this season.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
