NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
The Sunday slate for Week 14 was another good one for underdog bets. Underdogs went 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and even won three outright. This week, however, could be a bit different. Why? Because with bye weeks done, we’ll have a full slate of Sunday games to choose from for our underdog bets.
More games give us more options and additional chances for an underdog to pull through for us. We think we’ve identified a few that might do just that.
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Best NFL Week 15 Underdog Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chiefs (-215) vs. Browns (+4.5)
I know what many of you are thinking: “The Browns?!?!? Really?!?!? Nah, it can’t happen.â€
Those of you nodding your heads right now are probably right. However, the Chiefs have been playing with fire all season, seemingly always winning by one score. While their defense is solid against the run, it has not been great against the pass (No. 20, 221.8 yards per game allowed).
Cleveland has not been able to get the run game going this season, so it should not take long for the Chiefs to shut it down and force Cleveland to throw, which could be a good or bad thing for them.
If Jameis Winston catches fire, the Chiefs are toast. In his six games as the starter, he’s had three with 300+ yards (and one with nearly 500 yards passing) and three with 235 yards or fewer (1-2 with a win over Pittsburgh).
Of course, whether Winston catches fire comes with a very big if.
Pick: Browns Moneyline (+180) - Confidence is low for this one. Consider using it in a parlay only that you throw a couple of bucks on or maybe as a bonus bet.
Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Texans (-158)
The spread is not massive for this game, which tells us it should be competitive. It will likely be just that for at least a half. But I am surprised the Dolphins are not the favorite.
Ever since they got Tua Tagovaoiloa back with a healthy Tyreek Hill, Miami has been playing with a sense of urgency. With the hole that injuries helped dig for them, they seem to understand there is no room for mistakes and have played accordingly.
Houston has been on cruise control. The offense does enough to build a lead. If Joe Mixon can grind out a solid game on the ground, they might keep it. But they have let several games slip away or almost slip away late in the fourth quarter. The offense goes stagnant and becomes predictable, while the defense looks like it would rather play flag football.
With how these teams have been playing, I’d expect De’Von Achane to break off a few big runs in the fourth quarter, setting the Dolphins up for the go-ahead score.
Pick: Dolphins Moneyline (+134)
Bills (+2.5) vs. Lions (-142)
Playing at home does give the Lions an edge. But when we are talking about a potential Super Bowl preview, don’t count on the home-field advantage making a difference. Instead, expect this game between two excellent teams to go down to the wire.
Both have been playing well on each side of the ball, with each offense generating right around 495 yards in each of their last three games. Detroit’s defense has been a little stingier on defense (289 yards per game over the last three; 19 points per game) than Buffalo’s (318.3 yards per game allowed; 25 points per game).
This game could easily be won by whoever has the ball last, which gives the underdog Bills just as much of a chance to win as the Lions.
Our Pick: Bills Moneyline (+120)
Honorable Mentions
- Steelers (+5.5) vs. Eagles (-270): Philly will not find it nearly as easy to move the ball against the Steelers defense. Plus, at this stage of the season, I’m not betting against Russell Wilson (I never thought I’d say that again).
- Buccaneers (+3) vs. Chargers (-118): Baker Mayfield is playing well this season, but he’ll get tested against a solid Chargers defense. The question will be whether Justin Herbert can take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defense; the Bucs have allowed the fewest points over the last three games (14.3).
- Packers (-146) vs. Seahawks (+2.5): It would be nice to feel as if Geno Smith could be counted on to pull through, but no. However, the Seahawks’ defense has been tough (second in scoring over the last three weeks, 15 points per game allowed). Green Bay has given up 20.3 points per game over their last three.