NFL Week 15 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
Week 15 started with a dud game between the Rams and the 49ers. But don’t expect the rest of the slate to be as boring. We’ve got some great matchups with a lot of scoring potential.
Below are a few longshots from this weekend’s NFL slate that you should consider.
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Best NFL Week 15 Longshot Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bryce Young 40+ Rushing Yards (+750)
The Panthers are literal favorites at home against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend. Bryce Young and the Panthers are playing competitive football. Young has his confidence back and has made some great decisions and plays over the last month.
In addition to his decision-making, Young has also been able to convert in the run game. He’s added at least 17 rushing yards in four consecutive games, including two with at least 29 rushing yards.
That said, he’s facing a Dallas defense ranked 32nd in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. This season, quarterbacks have rushed for 36 yards per game against the Cowboys.
So why can’t Young get 40+ rushing yards this weekend? At +750 odds, I’ll take a chance.
David Montgomery Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+525)
I know David Montgomery hasn’t added 40+ receiving yards since September 30. But he’s come close in each of his last three games.
Montgomery has added at least 33 receiving yards in three consecutive games and will now face a Buffalo defense ranked 31st in receiving yards allowed to running backs this season.
The Bills have allowed six receptions to running backs and nearly 46 yards after the catch to running backs. Additionally, Montgomery saw five targets last week against Green Bay.
This game against the Bills figures to be high-scoring and back-and-forth. Montgomery should be used in the passing game. He’s come within seven or fewer yards of 40 in the last three games. This time he might get there.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+300)
Over the last four weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least two passing touchdowns in all four games. He’s also added at least three passing touchdowns in two of the games.
His passing attempts have skyrocketed over the last couple of weeks. He’s thrown 46 and 47 passing attempts in each of his previous two games. He’s also completed at least 33 passes in each of his last two games.
Miami has a matchup against the Texans, which is another potential down-to-the-wire thriller. Tagovailoa has had at least eight red-zone passing attempts in three of his last four games. He’s also been knocked down just once in his previous five games.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Texans defense that has already allowed an average of two passing touchdowns per game. The Texans rank 31st in passing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks this season. In a potentially high-scoring game, I could see Tagovailoa finishing with at least three passing touchdowns in this one.