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NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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Last week’s performance was a disappointing one. There just weren't a lot of appealing options on the player props menu, and I probably should have pulled back on the throttle to avoid a tailspin.

Lesson learned. I feel much better about this week's props. Let's get to it.

But first, a quick recap of Week 14 …

The wins: Chuba Hubbard over 49.5 receiving yards, Nico Collins under 69.5 receiving yards

The losses: Jake Browning under 231.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 223.5 passing yards, Roschon Johnson over 14.5 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb over 89.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions

NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.

  • Last week: 2-5
  • Season record: 65-64

Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 201.5 passing yards

Trubisky struggled in the Steelers' Week 14 loss to the Patriots, completing 22-of-35 passes for 190 yards — an average of 5.4 yards per pass attempt. In the six starts he's made since joining the Steelers in 2022, Trubisky has averaged 170.3 passing yards and only reached 200 passing yards once. This week, he goes on the road to face an improving Colts pass defense that has the seventh-best opponent passer rating since Week 9. If Trubisky gets off to a slow start, he could potentially be benched in favor of Mason Rudolph, whose name Steelers fans were chanting while Trubisky floundered in last week's loss to New England.

Justin Fields OVER 182.5 passing yards

Fields has cleared this number in six of the eight games he's started and finished this season. As my colleague Derek Brown notes in his Week 15 edition of The Primer, in the five full games Fields has played since Week 4, he ranks sixth in yards per attempt, third in passer rating and third in adjusted completion rate. The Cleveland pass defense has been among the league's best, but the Browns are banged up. They just put outstanding safety Grant Delpit in injured reserve. Edge rusher Ogbo Okoronkwo will be out, safety Juan Thornhill is questionable, and CB Denzel Ward is dealing with a shoulder injury. Fields should be able to clear this low bar.

Zack Moss UNDER 71.5 rushing yards

With Jonathan Taylor beginning the season on injured reserve, Moss was a machine in the early weeks of the season getting heavy-duty workloads and piling up yardage. With Taylor missing the Colts' last two games with a thumb injury, Moss has been far less effective, rushing 32 times for 79 yards — an average of 2.5 yards per attempt. Moss faces a Steelers run defense that ranks 11th in DVOA. Although Ezekiel Elliott did damage to the Steelers as a pass catcher last week, Zeke's 22 rushing attempts against Pittsburgh netted only 68 yards. The under on Moss's rushing yardage seems like a solid percentage play.

David Montgomery OVER 66.5 rushing yards

Montgomery has cleared this total in seven of the 10 games he's played this season, and he's 4-for-4 in home games. Last week, Montgomery had 10 carries for 66 yards against the Bears, but the Lions were playing from behind for much of the game, so they couldn't feed Monty carries the way they typically like to. Montgomery has averaged 16.1 carries and 77.0 rushing yards per game this season. He gets a juicy matchup this week against a Broncos run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. Denver has yielded a league-high 1,621 rushing yards to running backs, with opposing RBs gashing the Broncos for 5.5 yards per carry.

Chuba Hubbard OVER 63.5 rushing yards

Hubbard has quietly become a workhorse for the Panthers. He played 65% of Carolina's offensive snaps in Week 13, then logged a season-high 78% snap share in Week 14. Hubbard's rushing lines over his last two games: 25-104-2 and 23-87-0. He has a Week 15 matchup against a Falcons run defense that lost much of its bite when run-stuffing DT Grady Jarrett was placed on injured reserve in late October. The Buccaneers' Rachaad White trampled Atlanta for 102 rushing yards last week. Since Jarrett went on IR, the Falcons have allowed 122 or more rushing yards in 4-of-5 games.

T.J. Hockenson OVER 52.5 receiving yards

The equation here is simple: Good player + good matchup + easily reachable total = auto-smash. Hockenson has produced at least 50 receiving yards in nine consecutive games. In the five games Minnesota has played since losing Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury, Hockenson has averaged 72.2 receiving yards. The Vikings are facing a Bengals defense that has been wrecked by tight ends all season. Cincinnati has allowed 88 receptions and a league-high 935 receiving yards to TE. The Vikings are breaking in a new quarterback, but Nick Mullens has starting experience with the 49ers, and he's not afraid to push the ball downfield.

Bijan Robinson OVER 19.5 receiving yards

The Falcons have kept Bijan heavily involved as a pass catcher in recent weeks. He's cleared this number in three consecutive games, averaging 6.0 targets, 3.7 catches and 37.3 receiving yards over that span. The Falcons play the Panthers this week, and when Bijan faced Carolina back in Week 1, he caught 6-of-6 targets for 27 yards. Bet the over.

Elijah Moore OVER 40.5 receiving yards

Moore has topped this number in five straight games. In two games with Joe Flacco at quarterback, Moore has 18 targets, seven catches, 125 receiving yards and 334 air yards. He's heavily involved in the Cleveland offense these days. Joe Flacco has had 44 and 45 pass attempts in his two starts for Cleveland. It's hard to run on the Chicago Bears, so Flacco is probably going to be airing it out again this week.

DeVante Parker UNDER 32.5 receiving yards

Parker had season highs in targets (9) and receiving yards (64) last week, but he's probably going to see substantially fewer targets now that New England is getting its best receiver, rookie Demario Douglas, back from a concussion. Parker has averaged 29.3 receiving yards per game this season, and he's facing a Kansas City defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. I'll happily bet against the Bailey Zappe/DeVante Parker combo in a matchup against a good pass defense.

Puka Nacua OVER 66.5 receiving yards

This one seems too easy. Puka has cleared this number in 9-of-13 games this season. He's averaging 6.3 catches and 85.6 receiving yards per game, and he's getting a matchup against a Washington defense that's getting fricasseed by wide receivers on a weekly basis. The Commanders are giving up 198.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, most in the league. They're allowing 10.1 yards per target to opposing WRs. The Rams' outstanding rookie receiver should have a big game against Washington on Sunday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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