Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 15 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Week 14 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 4-10 (-7.0 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
I followed up a career-best 10-3 performance in Week 13 with a career-worst 4-10 performance last week. The gambling gods giveth, and they taketh. Pain.
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 98-83-2 (+6.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 37-28
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s NFL Week 15 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 15 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Dec. 14, at 11:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| SEA | SF | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1 |
| MIN | IND | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| CLE | BAL | -3 | -4 | -1 |
| BUF | MIA | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| NO | ATL | -4 | -4.75 | -0.75 |
| CAR | PIT | -3 | -0.5 | 2.5 |
| HOU | KC | 14 | 14.75 | 0.75 |
| NYJ | DET | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| JAX | DAL | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| CHI | PHI | 9 | 7.75 | -1.25 |
| DEN | ARI | -3 | -2.5 | 0.5 |
| LV | NE | 1 | -1.25 | -2.25 |
| TB | CIN | 3.5 | 3.75 | 0.25 |
| LAC | TEN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| WAS | NYG | -4.5 | -3 | 1.5 |
| GB | LAR | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.
- Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers
- Browns -3 vs. Ravens
- Steelers +3 at Panthers
- Packers -7 vs. Rams
Freedman’s NFL Week 15 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the four games with spread bets I like right now.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Check out our 49ers at Seahawks matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Lumen Field
- TV: PRIME
49ers at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Seahawks +3.5
- Betting Percentages: Seahawks – 38% bets, 64% money
49ers at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- 49ers ATS: 8-5 (17.9% ROI)
- Seahawks ATS: 6-7 (-12.2% ROI)
San Francisco 49ers: Notable Trend
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 21-28-1 ATS (9.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
Seattle Seahawks: Notable Trends
- QB Geno Smith: 18-11-2 ATS (18.6% ROI) as underdog
- QB Geno Smith: 7-3 ATS (35.1% ROI) as underdog with Seahawks
- QB Geno Smith: 14-10 ATS (13.6% ROI) at home
- QB Geno Smith: 5-3 ATS (20.5% ROI) at home with Seahawks
- QB Geno Smith: 8-3 ATS (42.3% ROI) as home underdog
- QB Geno Smith: 3-0 ATS (95.4% ROI) as home underdog with Seahawks
49ers at Seahawks: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
49ers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 31 | 0.054 | 23 | -8 |
| Total SR | 40.3% | 32 | 42.9% | 9 | -23 |
| Total DVOA | 8.1% | 10 | 4.7% | 21 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.09 | 29 | 0.107 | 26 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 42.7% | 29 | 45.7% | 14 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | -6.4% | 19 | 2.5% | 26 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 10 | 7.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.133 | 30 | -0.020 | 23 | -7 |
| Rush SR | 35.2% | 31 | 38.9% | 8 | -23 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.3% | 6 | 2.8% | 16 | 10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 9 | 4.71 | 25 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 8 | 5.6 | 18 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 24.4 | 8 | 25.7 | 30 | 22 |
Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.06 | 6 | -0.094 | 2 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 21 | 40.0% | 1 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | 8.2% | 9 | -17.0% | 2 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.098 | 9 | -0.073 | 5 | -4 |
| Dropback SR | 45.7% | 20 | 43.3% | 7 | -13 |
| Pass DVOA | -10.9% | 23 | -24.5% | 2 | -21 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.1% | 28 | 7.5% | 12 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | 0.010 | 6 | -0.135 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.5% | 20 | 33.6% | 2 | -18 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.3% | 7 | -19.5% | 2 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.95 | 32 | 3.66 | 2 | -30 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 4 | 4.8 | 1 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 26.3 | 6 | 15.2 | 1 | -5 |
49ers at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Brock Purdy
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -4.6 | 50 |
Career: Brock Purdy
- AY/A: 6.7
2022: Geno Smith
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.146 | 4 |
| AY/A | 8.3 | 5 |
| QBR | 64.5 | 5 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.6 | 10 |
Career: Geno Smith
- AY/A: 6.6
- QB Elo per Game: -32.4
Key Takeaway: Brock Purdy Is Still a Third-String Seventh-Round Rookie
Last week, Purdy looked great in his first NFL start, completing 76.2% of his passes for a 10.7 AY/A. Sure, he passed for just 185 yards on 21 attempts, but that’s all the 49ers needed him to do in a dominant 35-7 victory over the Buccaneers.
As a result, from last week to this week, I’ve bumped up the 49ers +2.5 points in my power ratings. In the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, they’ve received a similar boost from +0.81 to +2.72.
Even so, they are still just +1.82 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field in Massey-Peabody.
But here’s the thing: 49ers HC Mike Shanahan has historically underperformed as a favorite, this game is being played in the hostile environment of Lumen Field, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has done well in the past as an underdog (especially at home) — and Purdy (oblique, rib) is still just a third-string seventh-round rookie making his second NFL start while limited with an injury on a short week against a divisional opponent who is pushing to make the playoffs and coming off an embarrassing home loss.
Despite what we saw out of Purdy last week, it’s worth remembering that in his first game with a pass attempt (Week 7 vs. Chiefs) he had a 2.3 AY/A in mop-up duty, and in his first game with extended action (Week 13 vs. Dolphins) he had a 5.5 AY/A.
We have seen other quarterbacks with comparable talent levels perform acceptably in the Shanahan offense with the 49ers.
- C.J. Beathard (2017-20): 58.6% completion rate | 6.5 AY/A
- Nick Mullens (2018-20): 64.5% completion rate | 7.0 AY/A
But these guys are not in the same caliber of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (67.6% completion rate, 8.2 AY/A with Shanahan) — and neither is Purdy.
Given the circumstances, -3.5 points is just too much for a third-string seventh-round rookie quarterback to get on the road — even with Shanahan, and even if he’s better than the typical third-string late-round rookie quarterback.
Best Line: Seahawks +3.5 (-115, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Seahawks +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Ravens at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022, 4:30 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: NFL
Ravens at Browns: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Browns -3
- Betting Percentages: Browns – 52% bets, 64% money
Ravens at Browns: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Ravens ATS: 6-7 (-11.9% ROI)
- Browns ATS: 6-6-1 (-4.4% ROI)
Ravens at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.011 | 19 | 0.067 | 28 | 9 |
| Total SR | 44.6% | 13 | 45.5% | 23 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 11.3% | 6 | 9.0% | 27 | 21 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.075 | 15 | 0.056 | 14 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 47.7% | 8 | 46.1% | 15 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.8% | 2 | 9.5% | 30 | 28 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 21 | 6.8% | 17 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 26 | 0.083 | 32 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 37.6% | 27 | 44.7% | 27 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.2% | 8 | 7.2% | 27 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.93 | 30 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.7 | 20 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.8 | 27 | 15 |
Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.063 | 5 | 0.009 | 14 | 9 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 7 | 44.2% | 15 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 9.3% | 8 | -6.4% | 8 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.048 | 19 | 0.071 | 16 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 15 | 47.1% | 22 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.2% | 8 | -15.4% | 7 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 8.4% | 6 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | 0.085 | 1 | -0.127 | 5 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 44.9% | 3 | 38.0% | 5 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.4% | 14 | -5.8% | 9 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 16 | 4.08 | 8 | -8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5.5 | 16 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 23.1 | 13 | 19.2 | 8 | -5 |
Ravens at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Tyler Huntley
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.9 | 47 |
Career: Tyler Huntley
- AY/A: 5.1
- QB Elo per Game: -17.0
2022: Deshaun Watson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.3 | 6 |
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.5
- QB Elo per Game: 58.3
Key Takeaway: Tyler Huntley Is Not Lamar Jackson
I assume that QB Tyler Huntley (concussion) will be able to start this Saturday. He did practice fully on Wednesday, which is a strongly positive sign. But he’s still in the league’s protocol — and part of the protocol (Phase Five) calls for guys to return to practice, which may be a full session that involves contact.
But that doesn’t mean he will be able to practice fully without once again experiencing concussion-like symptoms. And a full practice doesn’t mean that he automatically exits the protocol. At least a couple times this year we’ve seen a player practice fully and then still fail to clear the protocol within a week.
It’s likelier than not that Huntley starts this game, but with one less day than usual to recover he’s not guaranteed to play. There’s a small chance third-string rookie QB Anthony Brown draws the start.
And even if Huntley plays, he’s a significant downgrade from starter Lamar Jackson. At NFElo, Jackson is worth +1.1 points to the spread this year, whereas Huntley is worth -3.9 points.
I more conservatively have the dropoff from Jackson to Huntley at -4.5 points (and I’m thinking about moving it to -4) — but either way the difference is large.
Although they have similar playing styles, Jackson is an MVP-caliber quarterback with a 7.6 AY/A and 7.4% sack rate, whereas Huntley is a limited backup with a 5.1 AY/A and 8.1% sack rate.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson (5.3 AY/A) has underwhelmed in his return to action. But without Jackson, I have the Ravens as 2.5 points worst then the Browns on a neutral field (Massey-Peabody has it at 2.6) — and this game is being played in Cleveland.
The downgrade from Jackson to Huntley is the difference in this game.
Best Line: Browns -2.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Browns -2.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Browns -4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
Check out our Steelers at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
Steelers at Panthers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Steelers +3
- Betting Percentages: Steelers – 43% bets, 65% money
Steelers at Panthers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Steelers ATS: 6-6-1 (-3.3% ROI)
- Panthers ATS: 7-6 (3.5% ROI)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Notable Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 49-27-3 ATS (25.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Mitchell Trubisky: 15-11-2 ATS (11.2% ROI) as underdog
Carolina Panthers: Notable Trends
- QB Sam Darnold: 20-30-1 ATS (17.7% ROI for faders) for career
- QB Sam Darnold: 4-8 ATS (30.3 % ROI for faders) as favorite
Steelers at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.038 | 10 | -0.011 | 11 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.2% | 19 | 44.1% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -3.7% | 20 | 2.5% | 19 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.085 | 11 | 0.027 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 13 | 45.0% | 11 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | -4.3% | 16 | -3.1% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.9% | 16 | 5.8% | 25 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.036 | 12 | -0.065 | 15 | 3 |
| Rush SR | 41.0% | 18 | 42.9% | 23 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.6% | 21 | 4.4% | 20 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.47 | 12 | 4.26 | 15 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 5.3 | 11 | -16 |
| Points per Game | 17.5 | 27 | 22.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.013 | 21 | 0.038 | 21 | 0 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 20 | 44.1% | 13 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -16.1% | 29 | -1.8% | 13 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.028 | 22 | 0.09 | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 45.1% | 21 | 46.6% | 18 | -3 |
| Pass DVOA | -1.9% | 13 | -9.8% | 11 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 19 | 5.8% | 24 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.076 | 19 | -0.050 | 20 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 41.8% | 11 | 40.0% | 12 | 1 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.4% | 28 | 3.2% | 18 | -10 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.75 | 5 | 4.42 | 19 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 5.7 | 20 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 20 | 24 | 22.5 | 14 | -10 |
Steelers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.8 | 27 |
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -20.8
2022: Sam Darnold
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.7 | 36 |
Career: Sam Darnold
- AY/A: 5.8
- QB Elo per Game: -75.9
Key Takeaway: Buy Low on the Steelers, Sell High on the Panthers
The Panthers are coming off a great 30-24 road underdog win against the Seahawks — but 2021 starter-turned-2022 backup-turned-starter Sam Darnold had a 5.8 AY/A in that game on just 24 pass attempts, so it’s not as if he’s the reason they won.
And his career mark is also 5.8 AY/A. He’s still the same-ol’ Sam.
Darnold should almost never be a favorite, and the Panthers are now favorites. As such, they’re 0-3 ATS this year.
Yeah, they’re 6-2 ATS under interim HC Steve Wilks, but after last week I believe the market has now caught up to the Panthers, who have never been favored under Wilks. In his only two games as a favorite (with the 2018 Cardinals), Wilks was 0-2 ATS and failed to cover the spread by a margin of -13.25 points.
This is a prime spot to sell high on the Panthers — and also to buy low on the Steelers, who last week suffered a tough 16-14 loss as home favorites against the Ravens.
Rookie QB Kenny Pickett (concussion) seems likely to miss this week for the Steelers, but backup QB Mitchell Trubisky is a veteran, and he’s better than Darnold despite his faults.
The Steelers have the edge at quarterback and coach, and the Panthers have a mediocre home-field advantage.
If you give me +3 with the Steelers against a bad team, I’ll take it.
Best Line: Steelers +3 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +0.5
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Rams at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: ESPN
Rams at Packers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 14.
- Spread: Packers -7
- Betting Percentages: Rams – 66% bets, 74% money
Rams at Packers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Rams ATS: 5-7-1 (-18.0% ROI)
- Packers ATS: 5-8 (-25.9% ROI)
Los Angeles Rams: Notable Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 0-5 ATS (91.7% ROI for faders) in temperature of no more than 40 degrees, including postseason
- QB Baker Mayfield: 18-33-1 ATS (24.5% ROI for faders) in post-rookie seasons
Green Bay Packers: Notable Trends
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 98-70-3 ATS (13.9% ROI) as favorite
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 67-37-3 ATS (24.8% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 9-3-1 ATS (41.8% ROI) off bye
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 4-0-1 ATS (75.4% ROI) as home favorite off bye
Rams at Packers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.026 | 17 | 0.058 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 44.3% | 18 | 46.2% | 27 | 9 |
| Total DVOA | -12.2% | 26 | 5.0% | 23 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.126 | 5 | 0.044 | 13 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 49.3% | 6 | 45.0% | 11 | 5 |
| Pass DVOA | -13.2% | 26 | 12.0% | 32 | 6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.8% | 30 | 6.4% | 22 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 26 | 0.073 | 31 | 5 |
| Rush SR | 36.7% | 30 | 47.6% | 32 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | -15.8% | 30 | 5.4% | 22 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.03 | 28 | 5.20 | 32 | 4 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 32 | 5.8 | 26 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 16.8 | 29 | 23.2 | 21 | -8 |
Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.058 | 7 | 0.03 | 18 | 11 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 6 | 44.4% | 17 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | 7.5% | 11 | -0.9% | 14 | 3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.044 | 20 | 0.142 | 29 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 45.0% | 22 | 50.1% | 28 | 6 |
| Pass DVOA | 7.6% | 7 | -17.5% | 5 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 5 | 7.2% | 15 | 10 |
| Rush EPA | 0.073 | 2 | -0.156 | 1 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 47.6% | 1 | 35.0% | 3 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.9% | 11 | 1.7% | 15 | 4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.83 | 2 | 4.26 | 14 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.5 | 16 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 20.2 | 23 | 22.8 | 16 | -7 |
Rams at Packers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.024 | 33 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 31 |
| QBR | 23.2 | 31 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.7 | 46 |
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -45.7
2022: Aaron Rodgers
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.059 | 22 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 17 |
| QBR | 41.4 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.0 | 16 |
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 78.4
Key Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers Is a Home Favorite Off a Bye
I jumped on this game to early (-9 in the lookahead market), but even after adjusting the Rams up +1.25 points after their surprising come-from-behind 17-16 win over the Raiders last week I still have this game projected at Packers -9.
So given that this line is -6.5 and -7 in the market, I still see value on the Packers.
The analysis here is fairly straightforward: The Packers aren’t nearly as bad as the Rams.
Say whatever you want about Rodgers, but he’s No. 2 in the league with nine multi-touchdown passing games.
And he has a good matchup: The Rams are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.126).
And Rodgers is a favorite, at home and coming off the bye: He historically has crushed in each of those situations — and in the total eclipse spot where all three of those edges have aligned in the regular season he’s an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.
In a cold weather game (forecast of five degrees Fahrenheit) against a warm weather dome team, I’m fine with laying -7 on Rodgers at home with eight extra days to rest and prepare.
Best Line: Packers -6.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Packers -9 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Packers -9
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers
- Chargers -2.5 vs. Titans
- Broncos -2.5 vs. Cardinals
- Raiders +0.5 vs. Patriots
- Packers -6.5 vs. Rams
But I expect these picks to change by Sunday based on line movement.
I’ll provide a tweet with my updated contest picks on Sunday before kickoff, and then I’ll post that tweet here.
TWEET UPDATE (Sun. 12/18): Here’s the tweet.
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