NFL Week 15 Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (2022)
Each week, I’ll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. So without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
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Week 15 Parlay
- Jaguars +4
- Jets-Lions under 44
- Cardinals-Broncos under 37
- Patriots +1.5
- Odds: +1273
This is a tricky week with four games on Thursday and Saturday. For that reason, I’m mixing it up with a couple of spreads and totals. Jacksonville is a volatile team, but the Cowboys are a banged-up bunch and have a critical matchup with Philadelphia on deck. The New York Jets defense should give Jared Goff fits at home, and the news that Zach Wilson will start for Gang Green gives me no faith in New York’s offense. Speaking of no offense, I’m assuming we’ll get a Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien matchup at Mile High Stadium. Finally, Bill Belichick shouldn’t have any issues out-coaching his former protege, Josh McDaniels.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4) | Total 43.5
- Saints -4
- Alvin Kamara over 58.5 rushing yards
- Desmond Ridder anytime INT
- Odds: +578
This is a game I really want no part of. I have issues backing the Saints to win with margin. However, I think this number is too short to back a rookie QB making his first start in the Superdome. My favorite bet of this game is Kamara to clear this total. Kamara has run into some horrible matchups the last few weeks, but I think that’ll change against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in run defense DVOA.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears | Total 48.5
- Over 48.5 points
- Jalen Hurts anytime TD
- Justin Fields over 70 rushing yards
- Odds: +532
I suspect we could see a ton of points in this game. The Bears’ defense is a dumpster fire, but the offense has put up points when Justin Fields has been happy. They could find success on the ground against an Eagles defense that struggles against the run. Chicago’s defense has given up five rushing TDs to opposing QBs, so Hurts feels like a safe bet to crack pay dirt.
Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars | Total 48
- Jaguars +4
- CeeDee Lamb over 65.5 receiving yards
- Tony Pollard anytime TD
- Odds: +667
I wouldn’t mind a play on the over, too, as both offenses should be able to move the ball. The Cowboys’ defense is banged up, particularly in the secondary. And like we saw last week, Dallas could be looking ahead and saving some things for a rematch with Philly. The Jaguars are very much alive in the AFC South battle and should be able to keep this close. However, Lamb should feast against a Jags secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, and Pollard feels like the safest bet to score a TD of all the skill position players.
Detroit Lions (-1) at New York Jets | Total 44
- Under 44
- Jared Goff anytime INT
- Zach Wilson anytime INT
The prop menu is limited after news that Wilson will start instead of the injured Mike White, so official odds aren’t posted for this parlay. However, I’d expect at least one mistake from the clueless Wilson, while the Jets’ defense should force a mistake against Goff, who freezes under immense pressure.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3) | Total 37.5
- Under 37.5
- Najee Harris over 15.5 rushing attempts
- D’Onta Foreman under 66.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +508
Another game I’m honestly not all that interested in. And with the uncertainty surrounding Pittsburgh’s starting QB, the prop menu is already a bit limited. I’m expecting a low-scoring, run-heavy affair, which is why I like Harris to go over his attempts prop. As for Foreman, he could find tough sledding against a Steelers defense that ranks 11th in run defense DVOA.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans | Total 49.5
- Under 49.5
- Patrick Mahomes under 304.5 passing yards
- Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +564
This feels like a game where the Chiefs simply try to get in and get out healthy. I expect Kansas City to rely more on its ground game, which makes Pacheco intriguing against a Texans run defense that’s strugglred all year. Lovie Smith will play his classic Tampa 2 zone defense, which prevents big plays. And the Texans actually rank 17th in pass defense DVOA. Unless this game is unexpectedly close, I don’t expect Mahomes to put up massive numbers.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) | Total 44.5
The prop menu is very limited as we await injury news regarding some of New England’s key offensive players. However, New England holds a huge coaching advantage and should find a way to limit Davante Adams. I would take the Patriots and the points, along with an Adams under receiving yards prop. Depending on who’s healthy in New England’s backfield, I’d take their over rushing yards prop against a subpar Vegas run defense.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-1.5) | Total 36.5
This game’s prop menu is also limited as we await official word on Russell Wilson. However, assuming Wilson is out, I would take the under and the over on James Conner’s rush attempt prop and rushing yardage prop. The Cardinals will run their offense through him with no Kyler Murray. I’d also consider an under on DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown receiving props against an elite Broncos secondary.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) | Total 46.5
- Titans +3
- Derrick Henry over 101.5 rushing yards
- Justin Herbert over 299.5 passing yards
- Odds: +550
This feels like Tennessee’s last stand following three consecutive losses. I’m expecting maximum effort and gameplan from Mike Vrabel’s squad, who I’ll happily back as a dog, especially against the Chargers. Just when you think this team has it figured out, they tend to shoot themselves in the foot. And considering Los Angeles ranks 25th in run defense DVOA, Henry should eat. But Herbert should answer now that he has all his weapons back and will face a Titans defense that’s 28th in pass defense DVOA.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Total 45
- Under 45
- Chris Godwin over 68.5 receiving yards
- Joe Mixon under 52.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +571
This is one of the toughest games to cap for Week 15. While I’d lean toward Tampa, I feel slightly better about the under. This game involves two top 10 defenses, and the Bengals could be without Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. We’ve seen opponents take Mike Evans and the big play away, forcing the Bucs to work the ball down the field methodically. I’d expect a similar game plan from Cincinnati, which should free up Godwin over the middle. I’m also betting against Mixon against a stout Bucs front.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5) | Total 40.5
- Under 40.5
- Saquon Barkley under 65.5 rushing yards
- Terry McLaurin over 60.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +560
While I think the Giants are toast, I don’t feel comfy laying five points with Washington. Instead, I’ll bank on another low-scoring affair, although we did get lucky with this exact under two weeks ago when the teams tied 20-20. Barkley barely scratched past this prop in the last matchup, rushing for 63 yards. However, with a week to prepare, I’d expect Washington to devote their defense to bottling him up. McLaurin had 105 receiving yards in the first matchup and should be in store for a similarly big day. This prop feels too low.
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