NFL Week 15 Same Game Parlays Picks & Predictions: Saturday (12/17)
On Saturday, we're going to get a full day of NFL football. The Colts take on the Vikings in Minnesota in the early game, the Ravens and Browns play in Cleveland in the afternoon, and the Bills and Dolphins have a huge game in Buffalo that evening.
All three games should be good, and all three have betting markets with value. Below is a two-leg SGP for each game to take advantage of a rare NFL Saturday.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Colts @ Vikings
Leg 1: Vikings -7.5 (+140)
While the Vikings are coming down to earth a bit after their 8-1 start to the season, they're still a good team. Kirk Cousins has played well lately, and they have enough weapons on offense to put pressure on their opponents. I'd be very surprised to see the Colts keep pace. Indianapolis has lost three straight and six of their last seven, including a 35-point loss to Dallas last week in which they allowed 54 points. They've been playing like one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Vikings’ offense is consistently productive, and I expect them to give the struggling Colts’ defense trouble on Saturday. Given the Colts' offensive struggles, I don't see them keeping pace. I like this alternate line, as I think the Vikings should win by enough that we can get aggressive here.
Leg 2: Michael Pittman Jr. 70+ Yards (+110)
Indianapolis will have to throw the ball to have any hope of keeping pace with the Vikings and Michael Pittman Jr. is likely to be the beneficiary here. Pittman has 76 catches on 107 targets so far this season – he's on pace for 1,000 yards, and has a high catch rate on his targets.
Against the Vikings' pass defense, this should be enough to post a good stat line. Minnesota allows 209 yards per game to opposing WRs – the most in the NFL. They also allow 13.8 yards per catch – the second-highest mark in the league. Pittman should get enough volume to break 70 yards, especially if the Colts fall behind early.
Parlay Odds: (+365)
Ravens @ Browns
Leg 1: Under 42.5 (-225)
Neither of these teams has been offensive machines lately. Cleveland's offense has scored just 16 points in two games with Deshaun Watson, while the Ravens have averaged 13 points per game with Tyler Huntley running the offense the last two weeks. With the forecast calling for strong winds in Cleveland on Saturday, I don't think this game will be much different.
Cleveland will have some trouble attacking Baltimore's weak pass defense in the wind. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore will likely keep the running game going to run the clock and challenge the Browns' weak run defense. I expect this game to be a defensive struggle and it should finish comfortably under 42.5 points.
Leg 2: JK Dobbins Anytime TD (+210)
While this game should be low scoring, I think JK Dobbins has as good a chance as anyone to get in the end zone. In his first game back from injury last week Dobbins looked great, posting 120 yards and a TD on 15 carries. Cleveland has allowed 17 TDs to opposing RBs in just 13 games – the second-highest mark in the NFL.
Given the weather and the Browns' weak run defense, I expect Baltimore to keep the ball on the ground. I love the value in a Dobbins TD at +210 given the opportunity and matchup he's likely to see.
Parlay Odds (+450)
Dolphins @ Bills
Leg 1: Bills Halftime/Fulltime Winner (-145)
For such a great team, the Bills have had a bit of an up-and-down season. That said, they're on an upswing right now, having won four games in a row. They've outscored their opponents by an average margin of 8.3 points per game. They've also won the first half of each of the four games, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 5.8 points in first halves.
Miami has been a surprising team this season, but they're moving in the opposite direction lately. They've lost two games in a row and lost the first half in both of those games. With snow in the forecast in Buffalo, I don't expect Miami's big-play offense to get their footing. Rather than taking Buffalo -7 here, I'll bet on them to win the first half and hold that lead through the end of the game.
Leg 2: Devin Singletary Anytime TD (+170)
While Josh Allen and the passing game are the headliners of Buffalo's offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lean on the running game a bit more heavily in the snowy conditions Saturday. This should bode well for Devin Singletary. Singletary's 37 red zone opportunities rank top ten in the NFL, and he'll likely get plenty more opportunities Saturday if the Bills opt to keep the ball on the ground.
Miami has allowed 15 TDs to RBs this season in 13 games. Given that Singletary is likely to see plenty of volume, and that he's gotten a high number of red zone opportunities on the season, I love the value for him to get in the end zone at +170.
Parlay Odds: (+300)
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