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NFL Week 15 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Packers vs. Seahawks)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 15 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 15’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Packers and Seahawks. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.

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Sunday Night Football Primer

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 11-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 17 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 16-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 13-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-10 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last eight of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won seven of their last nine games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last four games.
  • The favorites have won 22 of the Seahawks' last 28 games.
  • The road team has won eight of the Seahawks' last nine games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Seahawks' last nine games.
  • Seattle is 10-14-1 ATS in their last 25 games played (9-11-1 over the last 19 games).
  • Seattle is 12-3 as a favorite in the last 15 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle is 4-5 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle, as a road underdog, ATS is 9-8 (55%). As away underdogs on the money line, they are 6-11.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last 10 games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last eight road games.

Totals:

  • The Packers are 20-12 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • 13 of the Packers' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, and 7 in Week 14.
  • That's 16 first-half points per game since Week 5, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • The Packers have scored first in 11 of their last 12 road games.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 13 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 16 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 3-4 O/U this season at home, averaging 45 points per game.
  • Five of the Seahawks’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seattle is 3-4 toward the over at home, averaging 41.6 points per game.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Seahawks' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I've been on the wrong side of the Seahawks in recent weeks, boasting a 0-2 personal record against them in two matchups against the Arizona Cardinals. There's no denying that Seattle has improved tremendously since their bye week. In the last four weeks, they are 4-0 straight up and ATS on the back of impressive defensive performances.

The Seahawks have allowed just one rushing touchdown since Week 9, compared to 9 touchdowns in the first 8 weeks of the season. Per the Athletic and TruMedia, since Week 11, Seattle's defense ranks second in opponent points per drive and No. 1 in EPA per play, bringing its season ranking to seventh and eighth, respectively, proving the unit has legitimately turned a corner.

Seattle has coined their new look defense as the "Death Zone." The personnel has finally adopted Mike Macdonald's complex scheme, and you can see them executing it at a high level. This will prove problematic for Jordan Love and company on the road.

Seattle's improved defense and the Honolulu Flu are two trends Green Bay will have to overcome to come away with a road cover. No team has covered the spread after playing Detroit besides the Jaguars (although they had a bye week in between).

And Green Bay has been a bad team to bet on as a road favorite. Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (20%) and 11-11 on the money line on the road.

With Seattle’s defense playing so well and their offense always living to throw their way back into games, I think taking them with their points at home is the sharp bet. Seattle’s offensive line is playing much better since the return of Abraham Lucas, and they allowed zero sacks last week. When Smith is kept clean, he can do damage in this offense.

According to Next Gen Stats, Smith has thrown for the 5th-most yards (2,457) while completing passes at the 3rd-highest rate (77.5%) when not under pressure this season. However, Smith has been pressured on 37.2% of his dropbacks in 2024, the 10th-highest in the NFL. The Packers have generated pressure on just 30.2% of dropbacks faced this season, which is the 4th-lowest in the league. When generating pressure, the Packers have allowed just 5.3 yards per attempt, the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

I think we have an additional opportunity to back the Seahawks as a strong live bet. The Packers score quickly, and the Seahawks do not. If Green Bay jumps out to a lead, take Seattle with more points at home.

Because I like Seattle’s defense, I think the under is firmly in play at 46.5 points. That number suggests this game will be more of a shootout, which I don’t think is true for either team. Green Bay’s defense is 11th in DVOA. The perception of that unit is warped because of the strength of opponents. Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ losses have been to opponents with a combined record of 46-6, the highest by any team with at least four losses in a season since the 1929 Frankford Yellow Jackets.

Props:

The Green Bay linebackers can’t cover. The last five TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards. Noah Fant has 2.5-plus catches in six straight games. Last week, Noah Fant contributed three catches for 18 yards on four targets (one red-zone target).

The Seahawks have allowed the third-most targets to TEs in the last four weeks. Post bye-week, they have allowed overs to the last three TEs they have faced.

Jordan Love has thrown deep at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (14.6%), trailing only Anthony Richardson (22.3%).

Love has completed 19 of his 48 deep passes (39.6%) for 745 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. His 745 deep yards are the 2nd-most in the league in 2024 (Darnold, 871). The Seahawks have allowed just 12 deep completions this season, tied for the 10th-fewest in the NFL (412 yards, 12th-fewest).

The Seahawks have pressed their outside corners on 40.3% of snaps this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

Riq Woolen has played press coverage on 49.3% of his snaps in 2024, the 6th-highest in the NFL (min. 250 defensive snaps). Woolen has aligned as the Seahawks’ boundary corner on 82% of his snaps, while Devon Witherspoon has moved around the formation more (45.3% slot CB, 20.6% LCB, 18.7% RCB). Jayden Reed (+83, 6th) and Christian Watson (+71, 8th) both rank inside the top 10 in receiving yards over expected against press coverage this season. Reed has caught all 6 of his such targets for 148 yards and a touchdown, while Watson has hauled in 8 of 18 targets for 248 yards.

Facing press man coverage is Watson’s bread and butter. In the last six games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (31), air yards (593), and receiving yards (407) - even after a doughnut in Week 12. What's curious is he has zero TDs over this span. That won't last.

Geno Smith has attempted under 34.5 passes in seven straight games, including seven of the last nine games with Seattle as underdogs.

My Picks:

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