NFL Week 15 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 15, 2023

Christmas is almost here, and the NFL has given us the best gift of all - Saturday football games! This week, we get three NFL matchups on Saturday. The Minnesota Vikings and the Cincinnati Bengals kick off in the day's first matchup. Then the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Indianapolis Colts. Lastly, the Denver Broncos battle the Detroit Lions to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.

Week 15 Saturday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Vikings First TD Scorer: T.J. Hockenson (+950)

The Vikings have made a change at quarterback. They benched Joshua Dobbs and will give Nick Mullens his first start of the year. While Minnesota will have started four different quarterbacks in 2023 come Saturday, one thing remains the same - Hockenson is a critical part of the passing attack. The star tight end is second on the team in receiving touchdowns (five), only two behind star rookie Jordan Addison.

Last week, he had a 30.8% target share on the 13 pass attempts by Mullens against the Las Vegas Raiders. More importantly, Hockenson had the team's only touchdown of the game in the Week 12 loss to the Chicago Bears - the last contests the Vikings found the end zone. Meanwhile, the Bengals have given up six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the third-most in the NFL entering Week 15.

Bengals First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon (+450)

Cincinnati's offense has changed since the team lost Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury. Over the past two weeks, half of the team's eight offensive touchdowns have been by a running back. Furthermore, a running back has scored the first Bengals touchdown in back-to-back games. Mixon has had the first Cincinnati touchdown in 27.3% of the games that the Bengals have scored this year, the most on the team.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have played excellent defense lately. They haven't surrendered a touchdown in back-to-back games, giving up their last score in Week 11 against the Denver Broncos. Minnesota has surrendered only seven rushing touchdowns this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL entering Week 15. However, four of those rushing touchdowns were the first score in the game for the Vikings' opponents.

Anytime TD Scorer: Ty Chandler (+165)

Alexander Mattison won't play Saturday because of an ankle injury, making the second-year Chandler the starter. While Kene Nwangwu should get some snaps, Chandler will be the featured running back against the Bengals. Minnesota has struggled to run the ball this year, totaling only five rushing touchdowns, the second-fewest in the league. However, this week's matchup should make bettors confident that Chandler finds the end zone.

The Bengals have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs - the eighth-most in the NFL entering Week 15. They have given up at least one rushing score to running backs in 69.2% of the games this season, including eight of the past 10 contests. Meanwhile, Nick Mullens will start over Joshua Dobbs, meaning Chandler won't lose a green zone touchdown to the quarterback.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Steelers First TD Scorer: Najee Harris (+700)

While the Steelers backfield has been a near 50-50 split this year, I'm betting on Harris over Jaylen Warren to score Pittsburgh's first touchdown on Saturday. The former Alabama star has accounted for 25% of the team's first touchdown in the 12 contests they found the end zone, a team-high. Furthermore, he has the first Steelers touchdown in three of the past five games.

Meanwhile, the Colts have given up 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the second-most in the league heading into Week 15. Last week, they gave up a rushing touchdown to Joe Mixon and a receiving score to Chase Brown - the first of the game for the Cincinnati Bengals. Furthermore, the first touchdown against the Colts has been by a running back in over half of the games, including back-to-back contests.

Colts First TD Scorer: Mo Alie-Cox (+3000)

Last week, Alie-Cox had the first touchdown for the Colts against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the veteran leads all tight ends on the team in receiving touchdowns (two), end zone targets (one) and end zone touchdowns (one) despite being third in routes run (86) this season (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, the Steelers have struggled with red zone weapons.

Instead of betting on Michael Pittman Jr. to score the first Indianapolis touchdown, bettors should take a long shot on Alie-Cox. Pittsburgh has surrendered only two receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the past seven weeks, including zero over the past month. However, they have given up five receiving touchdowns to tight ends, including the most over the past three weeks (four). This past week, Hunter Henry had two receiving touchdowns against the Steelers on only three targets.

Anytime TD Scorer: Diontae Johnson (+195)

Anyone with Johnson on their fantasy football team over the past two years knows he isn't a touchdown machine. However, the veteran wide receiver leads the team in receiving touchdowns this season (three). Furthermore, he has scored in back-to-back games with Mitch Trubisky under center. The last time Johnson had a receiving touchdown in two consecutive games came in 2021.

More importantly, the veteran has an appealing matchup this weekend. The Colts have surrendered 11 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the 13th-most in the NFL. However, they have given up at least one receiving touchdown to wide receivers in over 60% of their games this year. Furthermore, a wide receiver has scored at least one receiving touchdown against Indianapolis in four of the past six matchups.

Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions

Broncos First TD Scorer: Courtland Sutton (+800)

Sutton has been a touchdown machine in 2023. He has 10 receiving touchdowns this season, the most on the team and the second-most in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill (12). The veteran has accounted for 43.5% of the Broncos' receiving touchdowns, scoring seven more than anyone else on the team. Meanwhile, Denver's wide receivers besides Sutton have six combined receiving touchdowns this year.

Furthermore, the star wide receiver has accounted for nearly half of the team's first touchdown in the game this season. Sutton has scored the first Broncos touchdown in five of the past eight games and three of the past five since the bye week. Meanwhile, the Lions have given up the third-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in 2023 (15). More importantly, they have surrendered a receiving score as the first touchdown in four of their five contests, including three straight.

Lions First TD Scorer: Jahmyr Gibbs (+650)

Detroit has the best 1-2 punch at running back in the NFL. After a slow start, Gibbs has been outstanding lately. The rookie running back had a massive workload with David Montgomery out of the lineup but hasn't seen his touches decline much since the veteran's return. More importantly, Gibbs has scored the first Lions touchdown in four of the past seven games, including three of five contests since Montgomery returned from the injury.

While Denver's defense has played better since getting embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, they still struggle to slow down opposing running backs. The Broncos have surrendered 15 offensive touchdowns to running backs this year, the fifth-most in the NFL entering Week 15. The first touchdown scored against Denver has been by a running back in back-to-back contests.

Anytime TD Scorer: David Montgomery (-135)

Last week was only the second time this season that Montgomery didn't have a touchdown. Furthermore, it was the first time the veteran didn't find the end zone in a game that he didn't get hurt. However, the former Iowa State star still has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (10) despite missing three games with injuries. More importantly, the Lions should get back to their core and lean on their running backs after losing two of the past three games.

Meanwhile, Denver has surrendered the seventh-most rushing touchdowns (11) and the fourth-most receiving scores (four) to running backs in 2023. Yet, their pass defense has been outstanding lately. They have given up one or fewer passing touchdowns in six consecutive games, surrendering zero twice, including in Week 14. After giving up 13 passing touchdowns over the first four games, the Broncos have allowed only seven over the past nine weeks. Expect Detroit to run up and down on Denver.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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